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IEA OMR: Oil Market in a 1.8mln bpd deficit in Q3 (prev. forecast 800k bpd), Sees World Oil Supply 1.27mln bpd lower than demand in 2026 (prev. 860k bpd)

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IEA significantly raised the Q3 oil deficit forecast to 1.8M bpd as global supply falls 4.3M bpd in 2026. Rapidly depleting inventories make Strait reopening urgent despite potential year-end surplus.

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2026 world oil supply to fall by 4.3mln BPD (prev. 3.7mln fall). Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting.

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