EUROPEAN OPEN: INTC up after beat, stronger AI-driven guidance; SAP GY up as cloud growth eases AI concerns; VOW3 GY cuts revenue view after China slump; CA FP backs FY guidance after Q2 beat; SAN FP drops Amlitelimab atopic dermatitis development

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities began Friday trading mixed. On the week, futures of the broad Stoxx 600 and narrow Euro Stoxx 50 are on course for small losses. Overnight, APAC stocks followed losses on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was heavily pressured following Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) earnings, while sentiment was also weighed on by rising oil prices and yields as geopolitical escalation continues. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, with officials opposing any temporary deal leaving Strait of Hormuz control unresolved and warning of regional escalation if the US strikes Tehran or critical infrastructure. CENTCOM conducted a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets. President Trump said the US will use frozen Iranian funds to compensate shipping losses, while the WSJ reported that Trump is growing increasingly sceptical of diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. In trade news, USTR Greer announced new Section 301 forced labour tariffs of 10% for countries with a forced labour prohibition and 12.5% for those without, effective 00:01EDT on 24th July (applying to goods in transit from 00:01EDT on 28th July), as the 10% global tariff expired; oil, gas, fertilisers and foodstuffs are exempt. Brent futures are trading a little below USD 100/bbl, having topped the level yesterday, amid geopolitics, and new US tariffs, which are again raising fears of higher inflation ahead. Gold fell to around USD 4,035/oz as rising energy prices increased expectations of tighter Fed policy. Swaps are pricing a 34% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. In FX, the US Treasury found no major trading partner manipulated its currency for unfair trade advantage in 2025; ten leading partners, including China and Japan, remain on an enhanced FX monitoring list, and the Treasury criticised China’s limited transparency on currency management. Elsewhere, FinMin Katayama said Japan will take decisive action against excessive FX moves when necessary, and cited shared US-Japan opposition to volatility after the US Treasury said the JPY was substantially undervalued. Following yesterday’s meeting, ECB officials have been on the wires. ECB’s Nagel defended keeping rates unchanged after June’s 25bps hike, stating that the central bank is well positioned to monitor developments; Nagel cited intense uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, and said September’s new data and projections would guide a reassessment of inflation, without committing to the next rate move. ECB’s Kocher said recent developments in oil markets are concerning; says a 50bps rate hike was not discussed at this week’s confab, adding that it is a scenario that he hopes the ECB will not have to consider. ECB’s Moulin said he will look at the size and duration of the oil shock when deciding on policy. In the UK, Bloomberg reports that the BoE faces a difficult decision on the pace of gilt sales in its QT programme, as Middle East tensions and new PM Burnham’s spending plans push yields higher; The BoE holds GBP 492bln of gilts, with active sales running at GBP 21bln this year; maintaining the current pace from October would require doubling active sales to GBP 40bln as redemptions fall, the report suggests. Analysts expect active sales to be held at around GBP 20bln, however, though some are calling for a halt altogether. In data, UK retail sales rose +1.0% M/M in June (exp. 0.2%), with the ex-fuel measure rising +1.1% (exp. -0.4%); the annual rate of retail sales growth was lifted to 4.2% Y/Y (from 3.2%). Pantheon Macroeconomics said the beat was encouraging, but weather and World Cup-driven, and it expects a pullback in July; still, the consultancy is optimistic that resilient household spending will underpin GDP growth through H2, despite easing consumer momentum. Germany’s GfK consumer confidence fell to -29.6 in August (exp. -28.5, prev. -29.2); GfK said income prospects saw another slight decrease, while the willingness to save has picked up moderately once again, adding that the ongoing uncertainty means that many households remain cautious about spending. STOCK SPECIFICS: TECH: Intel (INTC) shares rose over 4% in extended US trading after it topped expectations, seeing its fastest revenue growth in years, and issued stronger guidance underpinned by AI-driven demand for server processors. SAP’s (SAP GY) is higher after better-than-expected earnings and strong cloud growth eased concerns that AI tools and hardware spending are displacing demand for its enterprise software. CONSUMER: Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) cut FY revenue guidance to a decline of up to 3% (prev. no worse than flat). Q2 operating profit was EUR 3.47bln (exp. 4.07bln), revenue EUR 82.4bln (exp. 81.7bln) and EBT EUR 1.54bln (exp. 2.37bln). China sales fell 31.6%, while H1 operating profit declined to EUR 5.9bln (prev. 6.7bln). Carrefour (CA FP) reported H1 adj. EPS of 0.49 (prev. 0.41), revenue EUR 43.8bln (prev. 43.1bln), EBITDA EUR 1.87bln (prev. 1.82bln); Q2 LFL sales +1.9% (exp. 1.6%), while H1 recurring operating income was EUR 757mln (exp. 779mln); backed its FY26 guidance. FINANCIALS: Allianz (ALV GY) has agreed to buy HSBC’s (HSBA LN) Singapore insurance unit for USD 2.1bln, with the two Cos also agreeing to enter a 15-year exclusive distribution partnership; Allianz would provide insurance and other solutions to HSBC’s customers in Singapore. Sabadell (SAB SM) reported Q2 NII of EUR 902mln (exp. 894mln), gross operating income ex-TSB of EUR 1.27bln (exp. 1.25bln), net profit ex-TSB of EUR 608mln (exp. 635mln); total net profit +28% to EUR 624mln (exp. 653mln). FY26 guidance was confirmed, and it announced a EUR 331mln buyback. HEALTHCARE: Sanofi (SAN FP) will discontinue clinical development of Amlitelimab for atopic dermatitis following a strategic pipeline assessment. The company said its FY26 guidance remains unchanged. Ipsen (IPN FP) said its Phase III BOLD trial of Bylvay in biliary atresia patients who had undergone Kasai hepatoportoenterostomy did not meet its primary endpoint of improved native liver survival. Genmab (GMAB DC) and AbbVie (ABBV) clarified EPCORE DLBCL-1 had region-specific endpoints; in the US, epcoritamab missed statistical significance on overall survival versus chemoimmunotherapy. INDUSTRIALS: Poste Italiane (PST IM) Q2 revenue of EUR 3.39bln (exp. 3.34bln), net profit +3.8% Y/Y at EUR 594mln, adj. EBIT +0.5% Y/Y at EUR 868mln; it confirmed FY26 guidance. Signify (LIGHT NA) Q2 revenue EUR 1.33bln in line with expectations (prev. 1.42bln Y/Y), adj. EBITA of EUR 17mln (vs 110mln), comp sales -3.6% (vs -1.4%), and backed its FY26 guidance. MATERIALS: Antofagasta (ANTO LN) said operations at Los Pelambres have resumed after heavy precipitation affected parts of Chile; the group also maintained its FY production guidance range. DAY AHEAD: DATA: In Europe, flash PMI data are due: Eurozone composite seen rising to 50.3 (prev. 50.0), services at 49.8 (prev. 49.4) and manufacturing at 51.5 (prev. 51.4); In Germany, the composite is seen at 49.8 (prev. 49.5), services at 49.0 (prev. 48.6) and manufacturing at 50.5 (prev. 50.3); France composite is expected to rise to 48.4 (prev. 47.2), services to 47.5 (prev. 46.8) and manufacturing at 51.0 (prev. 51.2); UK composite is seen rising to 49.7 (prev. 49.3), with services at 49.4 (prev. 48.8) and manufacturing at 52.0 (prev. 52.5). In North America, US flash July PMIs are likely to see the composite rise to 52.3 (prev. 51.9), manufacturing to 54.3 (prev. 53.9) and services at 51.5 (prev. 51.2). Elsewhere, US new home sales and final building permits  are due. Canada PPI is seen falling by -0.4% M/M in June (prev. 1.2%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Lane (dovish) speaks (slide release expected). The ECB also publishes its Survey of Professional Forecasters, Consumer Expectations Survey and Survey of Monetary Analysts. The BoE releases Agents’ summary of business conditions and Decision Maker Panel survey. Russia’s CBR expected to cut rates by 25bps to 14.00%. CRA: Potential rating reviews are due from: Scope Ratings on Norway (AAA). ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 452, gas 126, total 588). EARNINGS: Notable US corporate earnings reports due today include: American Express (AXP), NextEra (NEE), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), SLB (SLB), Charter Communications (CHTR), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH).