[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude slips as Trump conditionally cancels strikes on Iran; metals benefit in tandem

Over the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.  Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties. WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep'26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct'26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl. Dutch TTF similarly slipped at the open but has been gradually trimming those losses. Despite the diplomatic optimism, reports emerged on Monday morning of a fresh attack on an LNG tanker operated by Greek shipper GasLog. Dutch TTF printed a low near EUR 55.50/MWh before rising north of EUR 58/MWh at the time of writing. Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close. 3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.