Market Analysis

PRIMER - US PPI data is due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

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Investors await July PPI data to gauge future PCE inflation and the Fed's September policy move, with expectations leaning toward a cooling trend and a potential interest rate hold.

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Analysts expect headline PPI to rise by 0.2% M/M in July (prev. -0.3%), with the annual rate cooling to 4.9% Y/Y (from 5.5%). Core PPI is seen +0.3% M/M, picking up from a prior 0.2%, though the annual rate is seen falling to 4.2% Y/Y (from 4.7%). On Wednesday, CPI data for July was in line with expectations, showing a cooling vs June, which helped trim some Fed hike bets. With the PPI and CPI in hand, econometricians will be able to gauge how the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE (due 26th August), will look. Writing after the CPI release, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they initially expect July core PCE to rise 0.23% M/M, noting that upcoming methodology changes could create volatility in PCE readings and lower annual core inflation; Pantheon Macroeconomics sees July’s core PCE rising 0.16% M/M, while Oxford Economics sees 0.2% M/M. The projections will be revised after the PPI release.

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