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FedIMPORTANT

Fed's Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) key is how energy prices get to, and how long they remain there for; high energy could bring inflation higher, but it could also hit growth; thinks rates are in a good place

News detail

Baseline is staying on hold for a while. There are two-way risks for monetary policy.  Will be watching data.

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Geopolitics

Gulf official tells CNN “50:50” chance US and Iran could reach deal by Friday, CNN reports; Iranian delegation does not include IRGC, which would need to sign off on details of provisional agreement

Geopolitics

The draft agreed to by Iranian and Omani negotiators awaits final approval from Iran’s supreme leader, two regional officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday

U.S. Economy

US ADP Employment Change (Jul) 44K vs. Exp. 70K (Prev. 98K)