[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 88: US conducts “self-defence” strikes whilst IRGC says it has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach

OVERVIEW US forces conducted “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and boats allegedly attempting to place mines. CENTCOM said strikes have concluded “for now”. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued in Doha, with optimism growing that a framework agreement could be reached soon despite remaining disputes. Iranian officials continued demanding confidence-building measures before any understanding with the US can move forward. Israel escalated operations in Lebanon as officials signalled preparations for broader action against Hezbollah. US COMMENTARY US CENTCOM said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday. US strikes targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats allegedly attempting to emplace mines. CENTCOM said strikes have concluded “for now”. US President Trump said Iran’s enriched uranium will either be turned over to the US and destroyed or destroyed in place under international supervision. US Secretary of State Rubio said negotiations with Iran could take a few days due to disputes over the wording of the agreement. Rubio said Trump will make a “good deal or no deal”. Rubio said talks were ongoing in Qatar regarding specific language in the initial document. Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz “is going to be opened one way or the other”. Rubio said US strikes do not preclude diplomacy and that a deal with Iran is still possible within days. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are to visit Israel to discuss a potential agreement with Iran. CNN reported disputes over sanctions and nuclear language were delaying finalisation of a deal, although US officials remained optimistic that differences could be resolved. IRAN COMMENTARY Iranian media reported several Iranians were killed in American-Israeli attacks on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Asharq. Iran’s Supreme Leader issued directives for officials regarding wartime economic management and pursuing reparations from enemies. Iranian officials were instructed to continue using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. Chairman of Iran’s National Security Committee said there is “no meaning” to an understanding with the US until Washington takes five confidence-building measures. Iran’s conditions include ending the war on all fronts, lifting the US blockade, allowing civilian shipping through Hormuz under Iranian arrangements, suspending oil sanctions for 30-60 days and releasing frozen Iranian funds. Iranian officials said even if an agreement is reached, it would not end Iran’s broader challenge with the US. An Iranian official warned any Israeli attack on Beirut or the southern suburbs could derail diplomacy and ongoing negotiations. IRGC senior spokesperson warned Iran’s response to any new aggression would be “more intense, heavier and stronger”. The spokesperson added that if war resumes, Iran will prevent oil exports from leaving the region. Iranian National Security Committee Chairman said confidence-building measures by the US could form the basis for further steps, but Iran will not compromise on national interests. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East. Iran's IRGC said Iran has the right to respond to respond to any US ceasefire breach; have identified hostile aircrafts entering Iran's airspace in the Gulf region and have shot down one MQ-9 drone. Iranian official Arasteh said the US will not have a place in the Persian Gulf and that Iran’s armed forces control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Mehr News reported. DIPLOMACY Nikkei reported the US and Iran were discussing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days after a deal is reached. Under the proposal, Iran would clear mines from the Strait during a 30-day period and stop collecting transit fees. The ceasefire between the US and Iran would reportedly be extended for 60 days under the proposed arrangement. Approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains critical to any agreement. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly not yet approved the agreement. Amichai Stein reported both sides were still demanding changes and “upgrades” to the memorandum language. Iranian negotiators in Qatar were reportedly trying to bridge disputes including the issue of frozen Iranian funds. Al Jazeera reported Qatari mediation led to understandings on Iran’s frozen assets. Reports suggested there was a strong likelihood of an agreement announcement on Tuesday. IRIB said the claims by Al Arabiya regarding the 14 point MOU between the US and Iran is false and baseless. Fox reported intense negotiations over a final agreement had continued in Doha since Monday morning. Channel 12 reported significant gaps still remain between Washington and Tehran and the agreement remains far from finalised. SHIPPING Explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, although Iranian media later said the situation was under control. Unofficial IRGC-linked channels claimed fighter jets attacked two boats in Bandar Abbas port and four people were killed. CENTCOM accused Iranian boats of attempting to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials continued insisting Hormuz arrangements and shipping rules remain central to negotiations. ISRAEL / LEBANON Israeli PM Netanyahu said he ordered the military to escalate operations in Lebanon to “crush” Hezbollah. Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported the Israeli army began mobilising soldiers to intensify operations in Lebanon. Israel’s Security Cabinet is due to meet at 19:00 local time (17:00 BST) regarding the situation in Lebanon and Iran. Israeli Channel 12 reported Israel decided to launch a major strike against Hezbollah. Axios reported a senior US official hinted Washington would support an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah.