Daily US Equity Opening News - CDNS rises after results; PANW slides on guidance; Anthropic expects to pay AMZN, GOOG, MSFT USD 80bln through 2029; MSFT plans USD 50bln investment in the Global South; META strikes deal to buy NVDA chips

TODAY’S AGENDA: DAY AHEAD: US-Ukraine-Russia talks are set to continue in Geneva. Today’s ECB economic bulletin pre-release will focus on ‘global trade redirection: tracking the contribution of trade diversion from US tariffs on China’. Stateside, the highlight is the FOMC minutes from its January meeting (see below for primer). US durable goods orders are seen slipping again in December; housing starts are expected to rise in December, while building permits are expected to ease. US industrial production is expected to rise in January. Elsewhere, weekly MBA mortgage applications data, and the December TIC flows data are due. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDP tracking estimate after today’s data releases; currently, it is tracking Q4 growth at 3.7%. Today’s speakers include: ECB’s Cipollone and Schnabel; Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove) will speak on regulation. In supply, the US will auction USD 16bln of 20yr bonds; Germany will sell EUR 5.5bln of 2036 Bunds. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), CRH (CRH), Carvana (CVNA), Moody’s (MCO), DoorDash (DASH). In energy, the API will publish its weekly inventory statistics after the US close. PRIMER - FOMC MEETING MINUTES (19:00GMT/14:00EST): The Fed left rates unchanged at 3-50-3.75%, as expected, in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in favour of a 25bps reduction. Miran had previously voted for a 50bps cut in December. The January statement upgraded its economic assessment, replacing “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace” with “expanding at a solid pace”, “job gains have slowed this year” with “job gains have remained low”, and “the unemployment rate has edged up” with it having “shown some signs of stabilisation”. It also simplified “inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated” to “inflation remains somewhat elevated”. In its risk characterisation, December’s addition that the Committee “judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months” was removed, leaving only that it is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate. The statement’s tone was slightly more positive on the economy and labour market and broadly unchanged on inflation. Ahead of the decision, traders looked for signals on the future policy path, but the statement offered no immediate clues and Chair Powellʼs press conference provided little by way of new information. Powell noted that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by the data and balance of risks. He said policy is well positioned, reiterating it is currently within a plausible neutral range, but towards the higher end. If Fed sees goods pricing peaking over this year, that suggests the Fed can loosen policy further. Powell highlighted that data since the December meeting has improved the outlook. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. Goods and tariff-related inflation expected to peak around mid-2026, with many effects already passed through. He noted that the labour market has weakened alongside solid growth, but recent data suggests stabilisation following a period of cooling. Job gains remain subdued, and while risks to employment have diminished, they have not disappeared, making it difficult to judge whether the dual mandate is fully in balance. Since the January meeting, Governor Waller (voter) has argued policy remains too restrictive, the labour market “does not look remotely healthy”, and tariff-driven inflation should be looked through. Governor Miran (voter) has said underlying inflation is not problematic and rates should be materially lower, warning policy may be passively tightening, though he added that after this weekʼs jobs data his concerns about the labour market have eased slightly. Governor Cook (voter) stressed stalled disinflation and the need to maintain credibility. Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) described policy as well positioned, expects tariff effects to fade and inflation to ease in 2026. Logan and Hammack (both 2026 voters), characterised rates as around neutral, signalling no urgency to cut unless labour conditions deteriorate materially. Among non-voters, Musalem and Schmid cautioned against further easing with inflation near 3%, while Daly, Barkin and Bostic emphasised resilience but warned inflation remains above target. Note, the minutes are an account of the January 28th meeting, so it will not incorporate the January jobs report and CPI data. MACRO: ECB - ECB said President Lagarde has not taken a decision on ending her term early, after a report said she may step down before her mandate expires in October 2027. The report said she could leave before France’s presidential election in April 2027, allowing French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz to agree a successor. RBNZ - The RBNZ will increase monetary policy meetings to eight per year from 2027 to enhance transparency and accountability. Governor Breman announced the change after the bank held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, signalling that policy will remain accommodative as the economy regains momentum. Breman’s debut decision was viewed as dovish, prompting traders to scale back tightening bets and pushing the NZD lower in wake of the decision. BoE - Reform UK plans to overhaul the BoE and the OBR if it wins power, according to its Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick. The party would strip the BoE of 'ancillary responsibilities' such as net zero to refocus on inflation, and require the OBR to incorporate greater diversity of opinion in its economic forecasts, Bloomberg reports. TRADE: Critical Minerals - The US has developed a critical minerals price floor system and is pitching it to allies as the Trump administration and over 50 countries seek to curb reliance on China for key resources, Bloomberg reports. Under Secretary of State Jacob Helberg said multiple agencies crafted the framework, aiming to shield Western firms from Chinese market pressure and bolster supply security.COMPANY NEWS:13-F FILINGS: Appaloosa - New buy: BALL. Increases: MU, GOOG, META, AAL, OC. Cuts: BABA, WHR, JD, VST. Exits: FISV, TFC, CZR, KEY, CFG. Berkshire Hathaway - New buy: NYT. Increases: CB, CVX, DPZ, LAMR. Cuts: AMZN, BAC, DVA, POOL, AON. DME Capital Management - New buys: WBD, SPB, HSIC, GPN, BKV. Increases: CPRI, CNC, GPK, PCG, ACHC. Cuts: PENN, KD, CNH, WFRD, LBTYA. Exits: SDRL, NXST, HPQ, OIH. Icahn Enterprises - Increases: CTRI, MNRO, SD, IEP. Cuts: IFF, SATS. JANA Partners - New buy: FISV. Increases: COO, ALKT, RPD, FUN. Cuts: MKL, MRCY, FRPT, EHAB. Exits: TRMB. Lone Pine - New buys: ASML, DASH, CRS, THC, CLH. Increases: KKR, NU, AVGO, CVNA, VMC. Cuts: PM, APP, BKNG, AMZN, LPLA. Exits: META, SBUX, EQT, FLUT, SE. Paulson & Co. - New buy: SOLS. Increases: BHC, THRY. Cuts: MDGL. Exits: HON, TMQ. Pershing Square - New buy: META. Increases: AMZN. Cuts: GOOGL, UBER, BAM, HLT, QSR. Exits: CMG. Point72 - New buys: AKAM, V, MU, LULU, PCTY. Increases: TSM, AMZN, NVDA, EQIX, AVGO. Cuts: META, ABNB, MSFT, TMUS, SPGI. Exits: CFLT, HPE, WMT, TRU, CHD. Starboard Value - New buys: CWAN, FLR. Increases: KVUE, RIOT, TRIP, MTCH. Cuts: ADSK, NWSA, GEN, HR, CRM. Exits: ALIT. Third Point - New buys: CMG, CEG, BABA, APG, SPOT. Increases: UNP, DHR, RKT, CRH, SGI. Cuts: NSC, PCG, TSM, MSFT, AMZN. Exits: FLUT, META, TLN, J, PRMB. Trian Fund Management - Increases: GE, GEHC, WEN. Cuts: IVZ, SOLV. TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is expanding its India AI footprint through partnerships with Yotta Data Services and E2E Networks, supplying its advanced Blackwell Ultra GPUs to support local AI infrastructure, Bloomberg reports. Arm Holdings (ARM) - Nvidia sold its remaining 1.1mln shares in Arm Holdings, worth about USD 140mln based on Arm’s latest closing price, according to a filing. The sale was completed in Q4, and reduces Nvidia’s stake to zero, years after its unsuccessful attempt to acquire the chip designer. Cadence Design (CDNS) - Shares of Cadence Design rose after it reported Q4 results that topped expectations, along with firm FY profit guidance. Q4 EPS 1.99 (exp. 1.91), Q4 revenue USD 1.44bln (exp. 1.42bln). Backlog rose to a record USD 7.8bln following strong Q4 bookings. Execs cited robust demand for AI products, adding that it was positioned to capitalise on AI-related opportunities. For FY26, sees EPS between 8.05-8.15 (exp. 8.03) and sees FY26 revenue between USD 5.9-6.0bln (exp. 5.94bln). Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Shares fell 7.6% in extended trading after it issued profit guidance below expectations, overshadowing stronger than expected Q2 results. Q2 adj. EPS 1.03 (exp. 0.94), Q2 revenue USD 2.6bln (exp. 2.58bln). Q2 RPO +23% Y/Y to USD 16bln; next-generation security ARR +33% Y/Y to USD 6.3bln, reflecting continued platformisation trends and growing AI security adoption. Execs cited accelerating customer modernisation of cybersecurity stacks and announced the addition of Chronosphere and CyberArk employees to support future growth. For Q3, sees EPS between 0.78-0.80 (exp. 0.92) and sees Q3 revenue between USD 2.941-2.945bln (exp. 2.6bln), with RPO between USD 17.85-17.95bln, and next-generation security ARR between USD 7.94-7.96bln. For FY26, raises revenue view, sees FY26 revenue between USD 11.28-11.31bln (exp. 10.53bln), but lowers EPS guidance to between 3.65-3.70 (exp. 3.85); sees FY26 RPO between USD 20.2-20.3bln, next-generation security ARR between USD 8.52-8.62bln. Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft plans to invest USD 50bln by the end of the decade to expand AI infrastructure across developing countries in the Global South, the company announced. It builds on prior regional AI commitments. Anthropic, Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) - Anthropic expects to pay at least USD 80bln to Amazon, Google and Microsoft through 2029 to run its Claude AI models on their cloud infrastructure, The Information reports. The projected spending underscores the massive computing costs required to train and operate advanced AI systems and the growing dependence of AI developers on major cloud providers. SanDisk (SNDK) - Launched a secondary public offering of USD 3.1bln of common stock currently owned by Western Digital (WDC). The company will not sell shares or receive proceeds. The offering comprises 7.51mln shares, priced between USD 535.00-555.00. Analog Devices (ADI) - Board raised quarterly dividend +11% to USD 1.10/shr. Applied Digital (APLD) - Shares slipped 8.8% in afterhours trading following a filing which showed Nvidia (NVDA) dissolving its 7.7mln share stake in the company. After the news, Roth Capital Partners reiterated a Buy rating and USD 58 price target, stating it is buying shares after the stock fell; the firm cited new colocation leases, including with CoreWeave (CRWV) and a hyperscaler, arguing weakness reflects headline risk, not fundamentals. Rogers Corporation (ROG) - Q4 EPS 0.89 (exp. 0.60), Q4 revenue USD 201.5mln (exp. 196.5mln). Sales, gross margin and adj. EPS approached/exceeded the high end of guidance ranges, with cost improvement initiatives driving significantly higher adj. EPS Y/Y. Sees Q1 EPS between 0.45-0.85 (exp. 0.75), sees Q1 revenue between USD 193-208mln (exp. 206.4mln). COMMUNICATIONS: Meta Platforms (META), Nvidia (NVDA) - Meta has struck a multiyear, multibillion-dollar deal to buy millions of next-gen Nvidia Vera Rubin chips, reinforcing Nvidia’s dominance in AI data centre hardware despite rising competition from AMD (AMD), and in-house chips developed by Big Tech, FT reports. Meta will also purchase Nvidia’s standalone CPUs, signalling a shift toward inference-focused AI workloads as spending surges. AT&T (T) - Four New York City pension funds sued AT&T accusing it of improperly blocking a shareholder vote on a proposal to disclose workforce demographics; the funds claim AT&T wrongly relied on a recent SEC policy change to exclude the measure from its 2026 proxy ballot. AT&T backed 2026 and multiyear guidance, and capital return plans, outlined in its Q4 earnings call. Alphabet (GOOG) - YouTube fixed a recommendations-system issue that left its site and apps appearing blank for some users. More than 350k problems were reported on Downdetector before complaints dropped back near zero. The company said YouTube, YouTube Music and YouTube Kids are now operating normally. Live Nation (LYV) - Several state attorneys general, including California’s, are prepared to pursue an antitrust trial to break up Live Nation even if the DoJ opts to settle, Bloomberg reports. California AG said states would consider any deal in good faith, but press ahead unless it meets “very high standards.” CONSUMER: Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla avoided a potential 30-day suspension of vehicle sales in California after the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles said the company took corrective action over its marketing of automated-driving features, Bloomberg reports. Automakers - The UK’s FCA plans to reduce compensation in its GBP 11bln motor finance mis-selling scheme by up to GBP 1bln, potentially exempting carmakers’ in-house lenders from some payouts linked to undisclosed tied finance deals, FT reports. The move follows industry lobbying; most redress will still cover discretionary and excessive commissions, with final rules expected next month, FT adds. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Shares rose 3.2% in extended trading after digital unit delivered record EBITDA and strong revenue growth, offsetting a wider than expected loss per share. Q4 EPS -1.23 (exp. -0.12), Q4 adj. EBITDA USD 901mln (vs 882mln Y/Y), Q4 revenue USD 2.92bln (exp. 2.88bln). Caesars Digital delivered a record quarterly adj. EBITDA of USD 85mln, alongside stable performance in the Regional segment and sequential improvement in Las Vegas trends. CEO said the brick-and-mortar operating environment remains stable into 2026, expects another year of strong net revenue and adj. EBITDA growth in Digital. Sees lower capex and cash interest expenses in 2026, supporting strong free cash flow generation to be used for debt reduction and opportunistic share repurchases. Toll Brothers (TOL) - Q1 EPS 2.19 (exp. 2.11), Q1 revenue USD 2.146bln (exp. 1.86bln). Delivered 1,899 homes at an average price of USD 977,000, generating home sales revenue of USD 1.85bln, with adj. home sales gross margin of 26.5% (25bps above guidance), and SG&A at 13.9% of homebuilding revenue (30bps better than guidance). Net signed contracts 2,303 units, worth USD 2.4bln (+3% Y/Y in value as average sales price rose to USD 1,033,000). Sees Q2 deliveries between 2,400-2,500 units, average delivered price per home between USD 975,000-985,000, adj. home sales gross margin of 25.5%. Sees FY26 deliveries between 10,300-10,700 units, average delivered price per home between USD 970,000-990,000, adj. home sales gross margin of 26%. Hormel Foods (HRL) - Reported Q1 prelim. adj. EPS of 0.34 (exp. 0.32), and Q1 revenue around USD 3bln (exp. 3.1bln). Said prelim results reflect a solid start to the year, and align with expectations, supporting confidence in initiatives aimed at returning the business to profitable growth. Will reaffirm its FY26 organic net sales and adj. diluted EPS guidance at the CAGNY conference, and reiterated its long-term growth algorithm of +2-3% organic net sales growth, and +5-7% operating profit growth. Separately, Hormel agreed to sell its whole-bird turkey business to Life-Science Innovations, with the transaction expected to close by the end of Q2 FY26, subject to customary conditions; terms were not disclosed. Nestle (NSRGY) - Cautious mention in Bloomberg, which notes Nestle is facing mounting pressure after an infant formula contamination triggered the largest recall in its history, adding to existing struggles to lift its share price from multi-year lows. Bloomberg said that the crisis complicates turnaround efforts by new CEO Navratil, who is set to outline his strategy when the company reports FY results on Thursday. MATERIALS: Glencore (GLNCY) - FY core earnings USD 13.5bln (-6% Y/Y), as record copper prices were offset by weaker profits from its coal operations. Despite the decline, it said it will return USD 2bln to shareholders, including an additional USD 800mln top-up distribution. It said it expects to be producing over 1mln tonnes annualised by the end of 2028, and targets around 1.6mln tonnes of copper production by 2035. Steel Dynamics (STLD) - Steel Dynamics and SGH submitted a revised non-binding indicative offer to acquire 100% of BlueScope Steel at AUD 32.35/shr (AUD 34.00 pre-dividend), valuing the equity at AUD 15bln. Post-close, SGH would retain Australia and Rest of World operations, while Steel Dynamics would acquire North American assets. Celanese (CE) - Q4 EPS 0.67 (exp. 0.91), Q4 revenue USD 2.20bln (exp. 2.25bln). Acetyl Chain revenue USD 940mln fell 15% Y/Y, Engineered Materials also declined Y/Y. Management said results reflected anticipated seasonality and softer volumes in Q4, noted it has made progress on priorities including balance sheet strengthening and growth initiatives, positioning it for continued improvement despite the challenging demand environment. Huntsman (HUN) - Q4 adj. EPS -0.37 (exp. -0.31), Q4 revenue USD 1.35bln (exp. 1.34bln). Ended the year with approximately USD 1.3bln of combined cash and unused borrowing capacity. Execs highlighted restructuring actions and cost controls undertaken during the year to address challenging market conditions. CEO noted a continued disciplined focus on cash management, balance sheet strength and fixed cost control while awaiting an eventual recovery in core chemical markets. Heidelberg Materials (HDLMY) - Heidelberg is in talks to buy a nearly 40% stake in Akcansa Cimento from Haci Omer Sabanci Holding, seeking majority control of the cement joint venture, BBG reports; Sabanci’s 39.7% holding was recently valued at about USD 1.1bln after it disclosed a third-party bid; Heidelberg is exploring a competing offer to secure the stake. INDUSTRIALS: Republic Services (RSG) - Q4 EPS 1.76 (exp. 1.63), Q4 revenue USD 4.14bln (exp. 4.21bln). Management said 2025 results reflected resilience, healthy pricing, disciplined cost management, offsetting cyclical demand headwinds. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 7.20-7.28 (exp. 7.30), FY26 revenue between USD 17.05-17.15bln (exp. 17.32bln). BAE Systems (BAESY) - Reported FY25 sales of GBP 30.7bln (exp. 30.7bln), with underlying EBIT rising +12% to GBP 3.32bln (exp. 3.27bln), while EPS rose 12% to GBP 0.752/shr; Order intake hit a record GBP 36.8bln, lifting its backlog to GBP 83.6bln. It raised its total dividend +10% to GBP 0.363 (exp. 0.355). Leonardo DRS (DRS) - Leonardo DRS was awarded multiple contracts under the Missile Defense Agency Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense IDIQ contract, which carries a ceiling value of USD 151bln. The awards position the company to compete for future task orders across a broad range of air and missile defense work. ENERGY: Japan-US Gas Project - Japanese firms including SoftBank, Toshiba and Hitachi have expressed interest in a US gas project announced by President Trump, according to Japan's Trade Minister. Other Japanese companies are eyeing related crude export and synthetic diamond projects. Devon Energy (DVN) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.83), Q4 revenue USD 4.12bln (exp. 3.61bln). Sees Q1 production between 823-843 MBOEPD, noting that severe winter weather is expected to reduce output by around 10k BOEPD (or 1%), and sees Q1 capex around USD 900mln. EQT Corporation (EQT) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.90 (exp. 0.76), Q4 revenue USD 2.39bln (exp. 2.16bln). Management said 2025 performance exceeded production forecasts, achieved record-low operating costs and came in below budget on capital spending, resulting in free cash flow significantly above consensus and internal estimates. Sees FY26 total sales volume between 2,275-2,375 BCFE, with maintenance capital expenditures between USD 2.07-2.21bln, inclusive of USD 205-225mln of corporate and capitalised costs; sees FY26 growth capex between USD 580-640mln. Plans to turn-in-line 125-150 net wells in 2026, including 26-36 in Q1, and sees Q1 total sales volume between 560-610 BCFE. UTILITIES: FirstEnergy (FE) - FY26 adj. EPS seen between 2.62-2.82 (exp. 2.72). Announced a USD 36bln Energize365 capital investment plan for 2026-2030, representing nearly 30% growth vs its prior five-year plan, and supporting a 10% compounded annual rate base growth through 2030, including over USD 19bln in transmission investments. Said the programme is designed to enhance grid reliability, prepare for future demand and advance energy priorities, positioning it to deliver core EPS compounded annual growth near the top end of 6-8% from 2026-2030. Also raised its quarterly dividend.HEALTHCARE: Kenvue (KVUE) - Q4 EPS 0.27 (exp. 0.22), Q4 revenue USD 3.78bln (exp. 3.68bln). CEO said the focus in 2026 will be on further enhancing performance, and progressing towards completion of its planned value-creating combination with Kimberly-Clark. Expects pre-tax restructuring expenses and charges totalling about USD 250mln in FY26. HealthEquity (HQY) - Sees FY26 EPS between 3.87-3.95 (exp. 3.95), FY26 revenue between USD 1.3-1.31bln (exp. 1.31bln). Backed FY26 adj. EBITDA view of USD 555-565mln, and said results are expected to come in near the top-end of prior ranges. At the end of January, Health Savings Account +7% Y/Y to 10.6mln, total accounts +4% Y/Y to 17.8mln, HSA assets +14% Y/Y to USD 36.5bln, HSA investments +26% Y/Y to USD 18.5bln. For FY27, backs revenue guidance between USD 1.38-1.41bln (exp. 1.41bln), adding that updated full guidance for FY27 will be provided alongside results in March.