[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD weaker against most peers as oil reverses; EZ PMIs strong ahead of US read

G10s are entirely firmer (excl. NOK) against the Buck, which has been offered throughout the morning, likely due to some profit-taking after gains in energy on Thursday. Generally a risk-on environment with high-beta Antipodeans outperforming. DXY weakened throughout the morning as crude succumbed to profit-taking after Brent Sept'26 gained c. 7%, and DXY saw gains of 0.3% on Thursday. Another factor potentially is the fresh US tariffs being lower than feared, also exempting oil, gas, fertiliser and foodstuffs. DXY fell from its 101.46 session high to a trough of 101.25. The 21DMA is below at 101.05 before support at 101. The US calendar is light, with the first read for July's PMI scheduled, where EZ figures released this morning were stronger than expected. EZ PMIs saw modest EUR strength following the French figure, which was extended by a couple of pips after Germany; Bunds were unreactive. EUR was lacklustre overnight in the wake of the ECB, though attempted a bounce towards 1.14 following the strong PMI read, foiled just above that level. Much stronger than expected UK Retail Sales had little follow-through to Sterling amid World Cup/weather related demand, with the purchase of Fans and Football shirts influencing the figure. Pantheon Macro still looks for consumer spending to ease to 0.1% quarter-to-quarter across H2, with a reversal in the aforementioned components likely to weigh. Elsewhere, UK composite PMI surprisingly rose to expansionary by a decent margin, though the strong caveats of the data not encompassing the recent geopolitical escalation saw the handful of pips strength in EUR/GBP pared. GBP/USD lifted from the 1.33 mark to a session high of around 1.3350. Barclays' month​-​end rebalancing model indicates a weak USD buying signal against most majors by month​-​end. The model suggests moderate bearish signals for CAD and GBP.