[ANALYSIS] US Treasury Secretary Bessent's Press Conference today at 19:00BST/14:00EDT: Iran "Economic D-Day" and "Treasury Twist" in focus

OVERVIEW US Treasury Secretary Bessent is due to give a live televised announcement followed by a Q&A with the press on Monday, August 24th at 14:00EDT (19:00BST). Market focus will be on the promised escalation of sanctions against Iran and further details regarding last week’s Treasury action at the long end. On Iran, focus will be on secondary sanctions, possible action against major Chinese entities and any retaliation through the Strait of Hormuz. On Treasuries, markets will watch for any signals of additional measures to contain long-end yields. IRAN SANCTIONS A broad package targeting Iranian networks and smaller foreign intermediaries is expected. The measures are expected to target Iran’s oil revenues, financial networks, shipping infrastructure and foreign entities facilitating trade with Tehran. Iran has dismissed the sanctions threat and warned that countries supporting the US campaign could be considered participants in an “act of war”. Tehran has also threatened to prevent oil exports from leaving the Persian Gulf if the pressure continues. Desks will likely watch for: The Iranian and foreign entities designated. The scope of secondary sanctions. Implementation dates and any wind-down periods. Exemptions for specific countries, companies or transactions. How aggressively Washington intends to enforce the restrictions. TOP IRANIAN TRADING PARTNERS China: Buys over 80% of Iran’s shipped oil; flows are now under pressure from the US blockade. UAE: Supplied 30% of Iran’s imports in 2024 but suspended economic and financial ties in August. Iraq: Trade exceeded USD 10bln in 2025, including USD 4–5bln annually for Iranian gas. Turkey: Bilateral trade totals USD 5–6bln annually but fell sharply after the war began. India: Trade totalled USD 1.63bln in FY2025/26, dominated by Indian food exports. CHINA: TRADE WAR RISK China is the principal third-country focus because it purchases more than 80% of Iran’s shipped crude. Bessent has urged Beijing to cooperate, while China has rejected the sanctions campaign and called for diplomacy. Measures against smaller Chinese refiners, traders and shipping intermediaries would extend existing enforcement. Sanctions against major Chinese banks, state-owned refiners or other strategically important companies would be more significant and risk opening another front in US-China economic tensions. TREASURY TWIST Bessent is likely to face questions during the Q&A over Treasury intervention at the long end of the bond market. As a reminder, the Treasury last week effectively doubled the size of planned buybacks of 10yr–30yr debt from USD 2bln to at least USD 4bln per operation, with the larger purchases scheduled between September 9th and November 4th. The move followed a sharp sell-off that lifted the 30yr yield to its highest level since 2007. The announcement initially pushed the US 30yr yield towards 5.18%, although much of the move subsequently unwound. Traders will watch for signals of further potential action, including larger or extended buybacks and changes to Treasury issuance, alongside any comments on fiscal risks and possible coordination with the Fed.