NY Fed SCE April: 1yr ahead expected inflation 3.6% (prev. 3.4%), 3yr unchanged at 3.1%, 5yr unchanged at 3.0%

Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply to 5.1% (prev. 9.4%) from a spike in March. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations eased to 2.7% (prev. 3.0%). However, mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.4 ppt to 43.9%, the highest reading of the series since April 2025.