Daily US Equity Opening News - GS traders see further SPX declines before rebound; US considering capping NVDA and AMD chips to China; WBD-PSKY likely to win regulatory approval; T backs guidance; AMZN warns of prolinged AWS distruptions in Middle East

TODAY’S AGENDA: DAY AHEAD: In energy, Secretary of State Rubio said the administration will begin measures on Tuesday to mitigate disruption to crude and LNG flows from the Mideast Gulf, but is not considering a SPR drawdown. Afterhours, the API will report its weekly gauge of energy inventories. In Europe, the highlight is the flash inflation data for February, where the core rate of inflation is seen unchanged at 2.2% Y/Y, while the headline rate is expected to be unchanged at 1.7% Y/Y. The UK’s Spring Statement is expected to be a low-key affair, with Chancellor Reeves outlining updated OBR forecasts; no major tax changes are expected, though minor measures remain possible. Stateside, the US RCM/TIPP economic optimism index for March is due. On today’s speakers’ slate: Fed’s Williams (voter; neutral; text and Q&A are expected) and Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter; neutral; no text expected, Q&A is expected). Notable corporate earnings due today include: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Ross Stores (ROST), AutoZone (AZO), Target (TGT). On the supply slate, Netherlands will sell EUR 6-7bln of 2036 DSLs via DDA; Germany will sell EUR 5.0bln of 2031 Bobls.NEWS:GEOPOLITICS: Iran-China - Senior gas executives said China is pressuring Iranian officials to avoid disrupting Qatari gas exports or other energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. Iran-Saudi - Two drones struck near the US Embassy in Riyadh, drawing Saudi Arabia further into the escalating conflict. Iran-US - Iran's IRCG targeted the US aircraft carrier Lincoln with four cruise missiles; the carrier was headed towards the Southeastern Indian Ocean, Al Arabiya reports. Iran-Israel - Israeli Military Spokesperson said it was not likely that Israel will deploy ground forces in Iran, as it is not practical. Iran-related Inflation - Global inflation is expected to accelerate due to the war with Iran, while growth prospects are largely unchanged, according to a Bloomberg survey. Half of respondents anticipate somewhat faster inflation in the Eurozone and the US, while nearly 40% expect a 0.3-0.9ppt rise in China’s CPI growth vs prior expectations. US Energy - Secretary of State Rubio said the administration will begin measures on Tuesday to mitigate disruption to crude and LNG flows from the Mideast Gulf, but is not considering a SPR drawdown. Separately, US LNG exporters may benefit from Middle East supply disruptions linked to the war with Iran, but gains could be limited as US producers are operating near maximum export capacity, leaving little spare capacity to capitalise fully on the disruption, Bloomberg said. Oil Price Hedging - Oil producers moved to hedge future output as crude prices posted their biggest surge since June following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Bloomberg reports. Nearly a quarter of AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC’s oil-focused clients were prepared for the 6pm ET market open on Sunday, with some placing limit orders and others scheduling transactions for execution on Monday morning. LNG Tanker Rates - Shipowners and brokers are seeking more than USD 200k/day for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin, about double rates from less than a day earlier, Bloomberg reports. The increase followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production. Refiner Run Rates - Some Asian oil refiners are reportedly considering run cuts of 20-30% amidst the Middle Eastern conflict, and the difficulties relating to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Coal Prices - Power-station coal prices rose the most in three years after an unprecedented shutdown of Qatar’s LNG plant increased fuel-switching demand in the power sector; Newcastle coal futures rose to the highest since December 2024. Aluminium - Aluminium edged higher amid increasing risks of supply disruptions; analysts said a prolonged conflict could affect aluminium smelters in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, potentially limiting access to raw materials and constraining metal exports from the region. ING notes that around 8% of global aluminium production is concentrated in the Gulf, and is heavily reliant on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Emirates Global Aluminium is considering using overseas stockpiles to offset ship-loading delays caused by the war in Iran, while assuring customers deliveries will arrive in the coming weeks. TRADE: US-China - US and Chinese trade negotiators are set to meet in mid-March, ahead of a planned summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, Bloomberg reports. Treasury Secretary Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He are expected to meet in Paris at the end of next week to discuss potential business deals linked to the leaders’ meeting, the report said.MACRO: US Equities - Goldman Sachs’ trading desk said US equities may need to decline further before staging a durable rebound, citing fragile sentiment and volatile flows after the S&P 500 failed to sustain a move above 7,000. They said geopolitical tensions and commodity price swings have offset a supportive macro backdrop, creating a “painful” near-term path for stocks. Separately, JPMorgan’s CEO Dimon said market optimism appears excessive given risks including Middle East conflict, despite an economy he described as “fine” and high asset prices; Dimon also said warned that inflation could become a “skunk at a party” for the US economy, citing risks that price pressures may exceed expectations. China CNY - The yuan rallied after the PBoC signalled comfort with currency appreciation through a stronger daily reference rate, ahead of the National People’s Congress. The CNY saw its largest gain since May, following the central bank’s biggest daily fix strengthening since August. China - China’s leadership plans a shift toward consumption after decades of investment- and export-led growth, Bloomberg reports. Its 15th Five-Year Plan will include a goal to drive a “significant increase” in consumption by 2030, signalling a more urgent push to boost domestic spending and rebalance the economy. Japan JPY - Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said the government is monitoring financial markets with utmost vigilance and will take necessary action in response to sharp movements, as volatility rises after US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Fed - Fed Chair nominee Warsh’s attempt to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet would proceed only slowly as he would face resistance over his plan to scale back one of the Fed’s most powerful tools, FT reports. RBA - RBA Governor Bullock said the board’s patient approach to inflation has limits, and policy could be tightened as soon as March, stressing that every meeting is live. She also highlighted risks to inflation expectations from surging energy prices after US and Israeli strikes on Iran. TECH: Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - US officials are considering capping the number of AI accelerators Nvidia can export to any single Chinese customer, potentially limiting sales to 75k H200 chips per company, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Shipments of AMD’s MI325 chips would also count toward the cap. US AI - OpenAI CEO Altman said it’s quick deal with the DoD appeared “opportunistic and sloppy” following a dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic. Altman said OpenAI is working to amend the agreement to clarify principles, including prohibiting domestic surveillance of Americans and preventing intelligence agencies such as the NSA from relying on its services. Separately, Congressional Democrats will challenge the Trump administration’s ban on Anthropic, which prohibits its use across the federal government and by Pentagon contractors, and are seeking bipartisan support for legislation. SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank’s payments app operator PayPay is targeting a valuation of up to USD 13.4bln in a US IPO, offering about 55mln American depositary shares at USD 17.00-20.00 each. PayPay had 72mln registered users at end-2025. Operating profit more than doubled to JPY 61bln for the nine months ended December, as revenue rose 26% to JPY 278bln. Broadcom (AVGO) - Broadcom CEO Hock Tan received USD 205.3mln in total compensation for 2025, primarily from USD 202.4mln in equity awards, as Broadcom benefited from an AI-driven rally. MongoDB (MDB) - Q4 adj. EPS 1.65 (exp. 1.47), Q4 revenue USD 695.1mln (exp. 669.37mln). Execs noted broad-based demand across product lines and operating margin outperformance. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.15-1.19 (exp. 1.21), Q1 revenue between USD 659-664mln (exp. 662.51mln). Sees FY27 adj. EPS between 5.75-5.93 (exp. 5.70), and FY27 revenue between USD 2.86-2.9bln (exp. 2.9bln). Chief Revenue Officer and President of Field Operations will depart, with a new CRO search underway; and Erica Volini will join as Chief Customer Officer. Asana (ASAN) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.07), Q4 revenue USD 205.57mln (exp. 205.13mln). Authorised an additional USD 160mln for share repurchases. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 0.07-0.08 (exp. 0.07), Q1 revenue between USD 202.5-204.5mln (exp. 204mln); sees FY27 adj. EPS between 0.36-0.37 (exp. 0.36), and FY27 revenue between USD 850-858mln (exp. 856.96mln). Aziz Megji will become CFO, effective 24th March, succeeding Sonalee Parekh. COMMUNICATIONS: Meta Platforms (META) - Meta is testing a shopping research feature in its Meta AI chatbot, competing with tools from OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s (GOOG) Gemini. Alphabet (GOOG), Nexi Group (NEXXY) - Nexi and Google Cloud signed an MOU to develop infrastructure for agentic commerce in Europe, combining Google Cloud’s AI and data capabilities with Nexi’s payments network.  AT&T (T) - AT&T reiterated its FY 2026 and multi-year financial guidance and capital return plans issued with its Q4 2025 results. It plans to return over USD 45bln to shareholders in 2026-2028. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Paramount’s USD 110bln deal for Warner Bros is poised to win FCC approval, FT reports. And Bloomberg separately reported that the deal remains under active US antitrust review, though the likelihood of a legal challenge is seen as low; the DoJ continues seeking third-party input. Separately, Fitch downgraded Paramount Skydance ratings to BB+ (from BBB-), on watch negative, citing sector competition, FCF headwinds and uncertainty related to the proposed acquisition of WBD. IAC (IAC) - IAC will sell its wholly owned subsidiary Care.com to an affiliate of Pacific Avenue Capital Partners in an all-cash transaction valuing Care.com at approximately USD 320mln. Transaction is expected to close in H1 2026. CONSUMER: Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon’s cloud unit warned of prolonged service disruptions after drone strikes damaged three data centres in the Middle East. AWS said drones directly struck two facilities in the UAE, while a nearby strike in Bahrain damaged infrastructure at another site. Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Cautious mention in Bloomberg, which wrote that its Audi unit dropped its four-ring logo in China last year, rebranding as “AUDI” and launching a tech-focused EV in a bid to revive sales, but the strategy, aimed at driving consumer interest in the market, has so far failed to deliver a meaningful turnaround in sales. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) - Cal-Maine Foods acquired the shell egg, egg products and prepared foods assets of Creighton Brothers for approximately USD 128.5mln, funded with cash on hand. FINANCIALS: American Express (AXP) - Board raised its quarterly dividend +16% to 0.13/shr. Riot Platforms (RIOT) - FY25 revenue USD 647.4mln (exp. 658.3mln). Produced 5,686 bitcoin in FY25 (vs 4,828 Y/Y); average cost to mine bitcoin (ex-depreciation) rose to USD 49,645 (vs 32,216), driven by a +47% increase in global network hash rate, partly offset by higher power credits. Execs noted a strategic shift to monetise its nearly two-gigawatt power portfolio for data centre infrastructure, with initial revenue generated from a partnership with AMD (AMD) starting in January 2026. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) - CEO Anthony Noto purchased 56K shares on 2nd March for a total USD 1.0mln. REAL ESTATE: CoStar Group (CSGP) - CEO Andrew Florance purchased 55.7K shares on 27th February for a total USD 2.5mln.ENERGY: US NatGas Producers - US LNG exporters may benefit from Middle East supply disruptions linked to the war with Iran, particularly after Qatar halted production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant. However, gains could be limited as US producers are operating near maximum export capacity, leaving little spare capacity to capitalise fully on the disruption, Bloomberg said. Viper Energy (VNOM), Diamondback Energy (FANG) - Viper announced an underwritten public offering of 17.39mln Class A shares by Diamondback, as well as affiliates of EnCap Investments and Oaktree Capital Management. Viper will not receive any proceeds. The shares were marketed at between USD 45.90-46.40. MATERIALS: China Copper - Chinese smelters are producing record copper volumes and increasing stockpiles, Bloomberg reports. Refined copper output is forecast to reach nearly 1.2mln tons this month (+4.6% vs February), according to a Shanghai Metals Market poll; YTD output growth stands at +10%, marking a survey record. BHP Group (BHP) - Chairman said the company sees limited immediate impact from the US-Iran conflict, as almost all its output is sold into Asia, AFR reports. INDUSTRIALS: WWEX Group - Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to acquire WWEX Group as part of plans to create a shipping technology business valued at up to USD 12bln, according to Bloomberg. The deal would value WWEX at nearly USD 5bln. Thales (THLLY) - Thales said higher European defence budgets are expected to support sales growth this year and beyond; it reported Q4 revenue of EUR 6.88bln (exp. 6.61bln), with record orders in its defence division; sees 2026 sales between 23.3-23.6bln (exp. 23.64bln), and 2026 EBIT Margin 12.6-12.8% (exp. 12.8%). Northrup Gruman (NOC) - Northrop Grumman was awarded a USD 225.11mln modification to a Navy contract, exercising options for the design, development and delivery of E-130J training weapons systems materials and courseware under the Take Charge and Move Out recapitalisation programme. Plug Power (PLUG) - Plug Power appointed Jose Luis Crespo as CEO, effective 2nd March; he previously served as President and Chief Revenue Officer. XPO (XPO) - XPO preliminary February LTL tonnage per day +0.2% Y/Y, reflecting a +3% rise in shipments per day, partly offset by a -2.8% decline in weight per shipment. Helios Technologies (HLIO) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.72), Q4 revenue USD 211mln (exp. 197.01mln). Execs noted strengthening margins and improved working capital despite subdued end markets and tariff disruption. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 0.65-0.70 (exp. 0.60), Q1 revenue between USD 218-223mln (exp. 196.5mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS between 2.60-2.90 (exp. 2.75), and FY26 revenue between USD 820-860mln (exp. 837.86mln). HEALTHCARE: Eli Lilly (LLY) - CFO said that its Orforglipron pill could potentially come to the US market as early as Q2 following expected approval in April.