Primer: Quarterly Refunding due Wednesday August 5th at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

The US Treasury will release its Q3 Quarterly Refunding Announcement on Wednesday at 13:30 BST/08:30 EDT. The Treasury ended Q2 with a cash balance of USD 919bln, above the USD 900bln estimate at the start of the quarter. For Q3, Treasury expects to borrow USD 739bln in privately-held net marketable debt (prev. saw 671bln), assuming an end-of-September cash balance of USD 950bln (prev. saw 950bln). The borrowing estimate is USD 68bln higher than announced in May 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows, partially offset by the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance. Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is USD 87bln higher than announced in May. Looking ahead to Q4, the Treasury expects to borrow USD 628bln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of USD 850bln.As always, focus will lie on the guidance to see whether the Treasury maintains language that the "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters".  JPMorgan said the USD 3.7tln funding gap it expects to emerge over the next four fiscal years means officials should adjust the wording of their long-standing guidance on auction sizes to meet the Treasury's objective of "prudent debt management". Specifically, it said the words "at least" should be removed from the line stating that auction sizes are expected to remain steady for "at least the next several quarters". However, JPMorgan said political considerations were likely to drive the decision. It added that changing the guidance next week could unsettle the bond market ahead of November's midterm elections, pushing long-maturity borrowing costs higher when they are already near their highest levels since President Trump took office. Treasury Secretary Bessent last year explicitly linked issuance plans to yield levels. JPMorgan therefore believes the US Treasury will avoid unsettling bond markets ahead of the crucial midterm elections and defer changes that would raise the prospect of larger bond sales in its QRA statement. Wrightson also expects guidance to be left unchanged, but states that "the question of when to start raising them is probably creeping higher on the Treasury’s planning agenda".Providing the Treasury maintains next quarter's auction sizes as expected, the issuance table should look like this: ​