Fed Chair Warsh says discussion was collegial; says there is no soft inflation target
Fed Chair Warsh signaled a hawkish stance, emphasizing a strict 2% inflation target. Higher yields and AI-driven capex inflation have prompted markets to price in potential rate hikes later this year.
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Economy is showing impressive resilience even with recent shocks, the trends are positive, and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. There is no soft inflation target. The 5-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in 9 weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases. Fed will not waiver. One key development has been that nominal and real yields are materially higher across the Treasury curve. Prices reacted in real time to incoming information. And the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor. Market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit. This is, in my view, a change for the better. And we're just getting started. Understand the desire for rolling forecasts and commentary from this committee. Decisions by this committee matter a great deal. And where necessary and appropriate, we will not hesitate to act. Another key development, repeats the strong growth of business investment, notes high tech capex - says it does not necessarily make Fed job easier. The meeting discussion Discussion centred on 4 questions, Talked a lot about the implications of the past 5 years of high inflation on the current policy. Considered the economic shocks of recent years, strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, the surge in AI-related investment. Took up the related question of price increases arising from shocks. The business capex boom is driving up prices of memory and logic chips, and associated AI infrastructure. Discussed monetary policy tools and strategies for achieving stable prices. If, as the Fed has long held, interest rate policy should be its primary monetary policy instrument, how much accommodation are we getting from the balance sheet?
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