South Africa Central Bank Statement

Forecasts: 2026 CPI seen at 4.0% (prev. 4.4%), 2027 CPI seen at 3.8% (prev. 3.7%). 2026 GDP Growth seen at 1.4% (prev. 1.2%), 2027 GDP Growth seen at 1.7% (prev. 1.7%). 2026 Core CPI seen at 3.8% (prev. 3.7%), 2027 Core CPI seen at 3.7% (prev. 3.7%). 2026 Fuel Inflation seen at 10.5% (prev. 15.6%). Commentary: For the global economy the war Has disrupted supply chains and hurt incomes. For South Africa, anticipate slower growth through Q2 and Q3 of this year. Baseline forecast is that the economy will recover in H2, but the outlook is uncertain. See downside risks to growth Aside from fuel, goods prices have been contained, Rand has been resilient and food inflation has slowed Our various measures of underlying inflation indicate stronger inflation pressures. See upside risks to inflation Recent volatility in oil prices shows both upside and downside risks depending on how Middle East conflict evolves In an updated adverse scenario where oil is USD 100/bbl for 2026, inflation is persistently above target and requires an extra hike this year.