[REVIEW] ECB unchanged as expected. Overall, the market remains positioned towards a September hike, with Lagarde not saying anything to push back on this. But, at this stage, the ECB is retaining full optionality.

In short, broadly as expected from the ECB. The statement itself was largely a repeat of June's tone. However, that sparked a modest dovish reaction. A move spurred by the statement sticking to the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting and no-commitment language, despite recent energy upside. As such, a modest unwinding of hawkish bets took place.  However, the move was broadly as expected, there was modest in nature for two reasons. 1) Any such adjustment was more likely to come via the subsequent press conference with President Lagarde. 2) The direction for global yields remains at the whim of energy and geopolitics. Lagarde then was broadly balanced, but ever so slightly more hawkish than the statement on a few points. Firstly, she noted that while the decision was unanimous, some members questioned whether the ECB should have hiked. However, she made clear that they are still not seeing any second-round effects. Furthermore, she stuck to the line of not providing forward guidance, but that they are providing a "framework" of sorts. On this, she made clear that there is a significant amount of data between now and September, which will provide insight into the decision. Overall, the market remains positioned towards a September hike, with Lagarde not saying anything to push back on this. But, at this stage, the ECB is retaining full optionality. Note, we may get more insight into the debate and trajectory for September from any source reports in the next day or so.