Market Analysis

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income slightly softer as energy prices climb; Gilts unreactive as Farage wins Clacton by-election

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Bond markets are weakening as soft US 30-year auction results and rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions drive yields higher, overshadowing Nigel Farage's expected UK by-election victory.

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USTs continue to fall further from Thursday's peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket. Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common's Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations. Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.

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