[ANALYSIS] Cheat Sheet: Bank of England September 17th announcement

Decision: 12:00 BST | Bailey pooled interview transcript: 14:30 BST Bank of England – September 2026 Cheat Sheet Order Focus Key watch 1 BANK RATE 3.75% hold expected. A 25bps hike to 4.00% would be the main surprise. 2 BANK RATE VOTE 6-3 hold expected. 5-4 = hawkish; 7-2 or wider = dovish. Pill, Greene and Mann voted to hike in July. 3 POLICY GUIDANCE July: “little evidence so far” of material second-round effects, but holders said further restraint could be needed if they emerge. Watch for any shift towards tightening. 4 SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS / ENERGY Key policy issue. Evidence of wages/prices responding to persistent energy inflation = hawkish; continued limited effects = supports a hold. 5 QT PACE GBP 50bln annual reduction expected vs GBP 70bln currently. 6 LONG-END GILT SALES Telegraph reports the BoE will stop selling 20yr and 30yr gilts. Confirmation is important for the long end. 7 QT VOTE Separate from the Bank Rate vote. Watch for dissenters and what alternative QT pace they prefer. 8 ACTIVE / PASSIVE QT Around GBP 20bln active sales / GBP 30bln passive implied under a GBP 50bln target. 9 RATE VOTER DETAIL Confirm Pill, Greene and Mann remain hikers 10 HOLDERS / HIKERS RATIONALE Holders: limited second-round effects, softer labour market, restrictive financial conditions. Hikers: persistent energy shock risks becoming embedded in wages and prices. 11 MARKET NOTICE – MATURITY SPLIT Current annual framework is roughly 40% short / 40% medium / 20% long. Watch whether long goes to zero and how that allocation is redistributed. 12 MARKET NOTICE – AUCTION SCHEDULE Check for zero long-end auctions and the size/frequency of short and medium sales. 13 DMO MECHANISM Telegraph reports the BoE could sell gilts directly to the DMO rather than the secondary market. Watch for confirmation and mechanics. 14 INFLATION ASSESSMENT CPI 3.1%, core 2.6%, services 3.4%. Focus on whether the MPC focuses on higher headline/energy inflation or contained underlying pressures. 15 LABOUR MARKET ASSESSMENT Regular pay 3.5%, unemployment 4.9%, claimant count +27.8k, payrolls -26k. Greater emphasis on cooling = dovish. 16 GROWTH ASSESSMENT July GDP +0.4% M/M, +1.6% Y/Y. Focus on whether stronger activity gives hawks greater confidence to tighten. 17 AUTUMN BUDGET / NEXT MEETING Budget 28th October; next BoE meeting 5th November. Watch for any preference to wait for the fiscal picture. 18 BAILEY INTERVIEW Later pooled interview. Focus on whether Bailey repeats that markets should not assume the BoE is edging towards a hike, and his assessment of second-round effects. Transcript due 14:30 BST.