[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude off lows while Washington gives Iran till the end of the week to respond

In US-Iran news, the biggest setback this week regarding US and Iran talks (in spite of the flare-ups) came in Lebanon, where Hezbollah publicly rejected the latest US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework, saying it required Hezbollah concessions without an Israeli withdrawal, and vowed to continue resistance while Israeli forces remain in Lebanese territory. An Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire remains a key Iranian demand for broader peace talks. Washington reportedly demanded Tehran respond by the end of the week and warned of either an agreement or military action. Crude futures are off their worst levels with little in terms of notable geopolitical headlines this morning. Following Hezbollah’s rejection yesterday, Israeli army issued evacuation warnings for 9 villages in southern Lebanon. Note, this morning, there were reports of a marine drone exploding in Romania, although the Romanian defence ministry later clarified that this was a Romanian army drone. WTI Jul resides in a USD 91.50-USD 93.54/bbl range while Brent Aug sits in a USD 93.64-95.90/bbl range. Dutch TTF trades higher by around 1%, just north of the EUR 49/MWh level. Spot gold has rebounded after finding support at its 200 DMA for a second day in a row (200 DMA at USD 4428/oz today). The yellow metal still trades with modest intraday losses and within a USD 4429-4482/oz range, within yesterday’s 4424-4515/oz parameter. Traders look ahead to the US NFP later today for impetus (full preview available on Newsquawk). Base metals are lower across the board but to varying degrees after trickling lower in APAC alongside the mostly downbeat overnight risk sentiment. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,711.70-13,893.30/t range at the time of writing.