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Goldman Sachs sees product margins elevated for longer as stocks stay tight

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Goldman remains constructive on refined product margins, seeing limited relief from Hormuz reopening and tighter-for-longer product stocks as the key support. Diesel margin forecasts were cut, with US/EU levels seen at USD 46/bbl and 31/bbl by Q4 2026, while gasoline margins were kept roughly unchanged at USD 23/bbl and USD 13/bbl for the US/Europe. GS sees smaller downside risks for product margins than crude prices, with structural tailwinds keeping a floor under margins into 2027.

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