[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude gives back some of this weeks gains whilst Iran and Paksitan discuss de-escalation on all fronts

WTI and Brent futures pull back slightly following a week of hefty gains on the back of escalating geopolitics. The downside today comes amid more sanguine reports, in which sources suggested Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts. Talks reportedly focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Modest downside was seen in crude prices after the IEA slashed its 2026 world oil demand forecast. WTI Oct resides in a USD 100.37–104.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.37–104.04/bbl range) compared to Monday’s USD 90.87–94.73/bbl range. Brent Nov trades in a USD 105.06–109.97/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.19–109.68/bbl range) and compared to Monday’s USD 95.97–98.06/bbl band. Dutch TTF has also pulled back from EUR 83/MWh intraday extremes before finding support just under EUR 80/MWh, oscillating on either side of the level. It’s also worth noting that US diesel prices hit a record USD 6.06 per gallon, with California approaching USD 8 per gallon. Metals are mixed, with precious metals cheering a slight pullback in oil prices, whilst base metals remain capped amid elevated energy levels. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,336/oz) in a current USD 4,300-4,361/oz range (vs USD 4,433/oz weekly high). 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,170.78- 14,356.00/t range at the time of writing.