Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 17th August 2026

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the MoU signed with the US does not stipulate a 60-day deadline and that no talks have begun with the US due to violations. Furthermore, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said talks with Oman are ongoing.   US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming but in light volume.   DXY softens; CHF benefits as carry USD positions unwind, Antipodeans outperform on easing Fed expectations. Fixed income benchmarks in tight ranges. Energy benchmarks lack direction as the MoU deadline expires. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (Jul). SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% DAX40 U/C Stoxx 600 +0.1% FTSE 100 +0.1% ES Sep'26 +0.2% RTY Sep'26 -0.1% NQ Sep'26 +0.5% YM Sep'26 -0.1% FX DXY -0.2% (99.40) EUR/USD +0.3% (1.1600) USD/JPY -0.1% (159.10) GBP/USD +0.2% (1.3557) BONDS US T-Note Sep'26 +2+ ticks Bund Sep'26 -8 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.684% German 10yr Yield 3.205% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 +0.3% Brent Oct'26 +0.6% Spot Gold +0.5% LME Copper +0.9% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.8% Ethereum +1.0% As of 10:35BST / 05:35EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses start the week mixed but in light volumes, given the Summer lull. Not much in terms of drivers to give a clear direction, with weekend geopolitical newsflow light. The 60-day US-Iran MoU deadline expires today, although the expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Ministry held its weekly press conference, in which they said no talks have begun due to Washington's violation of the MoU, while stating that talks with Oman continue. Sectors highlight the mixed picture. Basic Resources outperform, given the lift in 3M LME copper prices to new ATHs, while Tech is supported following reports from Bloomberg that Anthropic reported Q2 revenue of over USD 11.5bln (prev. 0.79bln Y/Y). To the downside is Optimised Personal Care, Food Beverages & Tobacco and Retail. US equity futures are mixed in early Monday trade, with the NQ printing modest gains. In terms of key stories: Alibaba's Qwen open-weight AI models surpassed 3bln global downloads over six months, outpacing Meta and Google; Alphabet is looking to sell AUD 5bln in its debut AUD bond offering; PayPal is in talks to sell itself to Stripe and Advent. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Continued USD weakness throughout the morning saw DXY fall to a 99.30 trough, its lowest since 5th June, while EUR/USD eclipsed the 1.16 mark, not seen since 17th June. The move was gradual and over the course of roughly an hour, the initial downticks without a driver, but later weakness seen around remarks from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which signalled commitment to the diplomatic process; remarks which also modestly weighed on Brent at the time. Analysts expect the USD weakness to continue, ING suggesting the USD can “probably trade to the soft side all week”, while others highlight the soft July data series; for now, DXY -0.2%, the level to watch below is the 200 DMA just below 99.20. Action elsewhere is very quiet, G10s mostly move in tandem with USD weakness. GBP/USD +0.2%, off the back of the weaker USD with UK catalysts light, Cable trading just above 1.3560, above all significant DMAs. Over the weekend, FT reported that Jamie Dimon warned the Treasury against raising bank taxes, a report which highlights the proximity of the Autumn budget. GBP is primed for a busy week of data, Tuesday sees Jobs data, Wednesday is inflation, Friday is Retail Sales. Low yielders are among the best performers as some likely carry USD positions unwind. USD/CHF -0.4%, testing the 50 DMA, USD/SEK -0.4% ahead of the Riksbank this week. High-beta currencies are also doing well on the back of easing Fed expectations which has helped the risk environment; markets now assign a 30% probability of tightening in September, last week was c. 50%. FIXED INCOME Fixed benchmarks are trading mixed this morning, with USTs (+2+ ticks) around recent lows, whilst Bunds (-8 ticks) move a touch lower. As it stands, USTs hold towards the upper end of a 108-16+ to 108-24+ range. Macro newsflow was lacklustre over the weekend, with focus ultimately on the expiration of the US-Iran MoU, which is set to occur today. Whether there is a fresh round of hostilities remains to be seen, but the risk remains (a full piece and scenario analysis can be found on the board at 07:05 BST). As it stands, US yields are lower across the curve, with mild underperformance in the front-end/belly of the curve; a continuation of the action seen last week following the soft US data. ING opines that the 10yr yield could be subject to upward pressure for some time, citing fiscal deterioration and continued focus on the JPY intervention story. The Dutch bank concludes by writing that “we see yields still gravitating more toward the upper end of the recent range”. For reference, the 10yr hit a high of 4.73% on 11 August vs current 4.67%. Key US data is lacking for the remainder of the day, and in fact for the remainder of the week. The FOMC Minutes of the July meeting will provide a better understanding of how policymakers are thinking about the policy rate ahead of the September meeting; as it stands, money markets assign a 26% chance of a hike next month. Bunds are trading with very mild losses this morning, whilst Gilts are flat. The lack of macro newsflow and pertinent European/UK data has led to tentative action so far, but a slew of UK data is dotted throughout the week, which will be key in determining BoE pricing. As it stands, money markets assign a 24% chance of a hike in Sept, and fully price in a 25bps hike by year-end. On the fiscal side of things, JPMorgan’s Dimon warned the UK Chancellor against raising bank taxes and creating a more hostile tax environment for banks. COMMODITIES Energy futures are mostly subdued within recent ranges with a lack of notable geopolitics from over the weekend, and with the US-Iran MoU effectively lapsing today (full analysis on the Newsquawk board). Briefly, the 60-day US-Iran Islamabad MoU expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran argues there is no ceasefire left to extend because the US already violated the agreement, while there is currently no confirmed deal to extend or replace the MoU. The key market focus is on whether the expiry results in renewed negotiations, additional US sanctions, further military escalation or progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The morning saw commentary from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which reiterated recent comments but prompted modest losses in the complex as Tehran said talks with Oman are ongoing. WTI and Brent trade higher by 0.40-0.80/bbl intraday, with the former within a USD 80.80-82.16/bbl range, and the latter in a USD 88.01-89.40/bbl range. WTI sees slightly deeper losses than Brent, with the Baker Hughes rig count on Friday pointing to expanding US drilling activity. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF bucks the trend with some gains as demand props up prices as Europe refills winter storage. Dutch TTF is firmer by some 1.5% intraday and resides just above EUR 62/MWh after finding resistance around EUR 63/MWh earlier. Precious metals are supported by subdued energy prices, in turn weighing on inflation expectations and thus the Dollar. Spot gold topped its 100 DMA once again (USD 4,386/oz) and resides in a current USD 4,367-4,416/oz range after topping Friday’s USD 4,397/oz peak, and vs last week’s USD 4,449/oz high. Spot silver trades towards the upper end of a USD 65.60-66.22/oz range, vs last week’s USD 66.80/oz peak. Base metals are similarly propped up, with 3M LME copper hitting record highs of USD 14,387.60/t (vs intraday USD 14,164.33/t). Another supporting factor for base metals could be the downbeat, delayed Chinese Activity data, which printed worse-than-expected across the board and further raises the argument for more stimulus from Beijing. At least 2 Asian refiners have asked Saudi Aramco if they can take their oil cargoes from Egypt's Sidi Kerir port, instead of through Yanbu, Bloomberg reported. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon reportedly warned UK Chancellor Healey against creating a more hostile tax environment for banks, the FT reported. Dimon said that higher taxes drive jobs away, using the decline in financial roles in New York as an example, the report added. Fitch affirmed the UK at ‘AA-‌’‌; outlook Stable. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -2.0% (Prev. -1.0%). UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Aug) -1.0% (Prev. -0.4%). NOTABLE US HEADLINES Alphabet (GOOG) is looking to sell AUD 5bln in its first AUD-denominated bond, issuing a mandate for 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year AUD bonds. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt to discuss a Gaza peace deal, while it was reported by Axios that the meeting was said to be very productive and Hamas leaders reaffirmed their commitment to disarmament and demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip. Iranian Foreign Ministry said that the MoU signed with the US does not stipulate a 60-day deadline and that no talks have begun with the US due to violations. The Ministry added that there are ongoing contacts with Qatar, which is playing an influential role in de-escalation efforts. On talks with Oman, they said talks are ongoing but that they are long due to the complexity of the subject, multiple actors involved and countries seeking to undermine the process. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the US, and that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway, according to an interview with Shahrara News. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and closed only under Iran's command, while he warned that as long as the US does not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade. IRGC senior commander said though Iran's military actions have remained strictly defensive since the outbreak of hostilities, the armed forces are fully prepared to adopt an offensive posture if necessary, while he cautioned adversaries to expect strategic surprises. A high-ranking source said that Bab al-Mandab is closed to Saudi ships in both directions, adding that the "blockade-for-blockade" policy remains in place and will continue, Arabic TV reported. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) security said two drones attacked the KRG PM's office and the residence of the head of the Protection Agency, adding that the attacks were launched from Iranian territory and no casualties were reported. Iran and Oman seem to be moving closer to reaching an agreement regarding management of the key waterway, despite increasing ship attacks, while a finalisation of the shipping map is said to form part of a wider accord to govern shipping through the strait. Only five commodity vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. Qatar's PM spoke with Jordan's Foreign Minister and discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions. Israel conducted artillery attacks on the city of Mansouri in southern Lebanon. Yemen conducted strikes on Saudi-linked mercenary targets in Mokha and Marib, destroying weapon depots and command facilities, according to Tehran Times citing a statement on Saturday. Yemeni government forces said Houthi militias launched a new attack with two missiles in Bab al-Mandab. RUSSIA-UKRAINE EU foreign policy chief Kallas announced plans to introduce the most extensive sanctions package against Russia since the beginning of the war in the coming months. Ukraine's Naftogaz said production has been lost following Russian attacks. OTHER US President Trump posted "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea.... Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises!" South Korean President Lee called for a sit-down with North Korea to pursue peaceful coexistence and wants to transform the Korean peninsula’s unstable armistice into a peace regime. CRYPTO Bitcoin regains the USD 63k handle as data shows that spot BTC ETFs recorded their largest outflows last week since the end of June. APAC TRADE APAC stocks began the week mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias, following a quiet weekend of macro newsflow and amid geopolitical uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Participants also digested a deluge of earnings and the latest data releases, while markets in South Korea are closed in observance of Liberation Day. ASX 200 was subdued as weakness in consumer discretionary, financials and real estate offset the gains in miners, resources and materials, while there is a slew of earnings releases, including 'big 4' bank NAB, which posted higher profits but noted cooling home loan demand. Nikkei 225 price action was choppy following disappointing GDP data, which could support the argument for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates next month, although money markets are still leaning towards the central bank resuming rate increases at the September conclave. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive amid a slew of earnings and with the advances in Hong Kong led by chipmaker SMIC, while platform companies such as JD.com and Alibaba were also underpinned, with the latter helped by the sale of its gaming arm and news its AI models hit 3bln downloads. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China's NBS said the external environment remains complex but they are going to continue expanding domestic demand, however some firms face operating difficulties. Additionally, NBS said the country has solid conditions to achieve its annual growth targets. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese Industrial Production (Jul YY) 4.5% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.3%). Chinese Retail Sales (Jul YY) 0.6% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.0%). Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (Jul YY) -6.7% vs. Exp. -6.2% (Prev. -5.7%). Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.0%). Japanese GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 QQ) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%). Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. 1.8%). Japanese Industrial Production Final (Jun MM) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.1%).