BoC Governor Macklem says if new US tarifffs remain in place, Q4 growth could be roughly halved to below 1%

If oil prices stay near USD 100/bbl, we'd expect inflation to edge up in coming months. Fuel prices have risen more than we'd normally expect, reflecting damage to global refining capacity. Recent gas prices have been more consistent with an oil price almost USD 40 higher than where it has been. So far we haven't seen evidence that higher oil prices are spreading to other goods and services. We don't want to raise rates and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained. When it comes to rate decisions, we need to look beyond initial shock of higher oil prices. Nor do we want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent. There is growing evidence that many Canadian businesses have started to adapt to US tarrifs. Expects that growth in labor force will be close to zero over the next few years