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IEA OMR: 2026 world oil demand to fall by 2.5mln BPD (vs prev. forecast of a 1.6mln BPD fall), citing impasse in US-Iran talks on resolving their conflict.
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IEA deepened its 2026 oil demand contraction forecast to 2.5mln BPD and projected a wider 1.74mln BPD supply deficit amid geopolitical impasses and delayed Gulf supply recovery.
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Sees total world oil supply 1.74mln BPD lower than demand in 2026 (vs prev. forecast of 1.27mln BPD lower). Now sees full recovery in oil supplies from Gulf producers deferred until 2027. IEA says need for progress in resolving Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts is greater than ever to avoid further oil market tightening. Further cuts Russian oil output forecasts on Ukrainian attacks.
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