Fed's Waller (voter) to support holding policy rate steady at September FOMC meeting if August inflation data shows continued progress

His communicating of reaction function helps public in planning. Considerable uncertainty about how outlook for prices, economy is affected by military conflicts, trade policy, and AI. Inflation: If August inflation data comes in hot, he would consider a September rate hike. Finally seeing some signs of disinflation’ in recent data. May not take much inflation acceleration to support tighter policy. If August inflation data shows progress has reversed, ‘small adjustment’ to policy rate would help ensure progress resumes. Inflation is significantly elevated above Fed’s 2% target Elevated energy prices and tariffs not a significant sources of ongoing inflation pressure. Underlying inflation ‘doing better’ than core numbers suggest. Sees some upside risk to inflation, though wage growth is consistent with expectation it is returning to 2%. Personal consumption expenditures and core PCE not best guide for where inflation is Sees ‘considerable improvement’ with ‘encouraging’ speed in three-month core inflation. Pending revisions to commerce department’s non-market price estimate could lower 12-month PCE by a few tenths of a percentage point. GDP: GDP growth continuing at ‘solid’ pace, equity price gains should sustain consumption growth AI investment is ‘legitimate’ part of GDP; AI will ‘reliably’ raise productivity Labour Market: Labour market also in satisfactory shape, expects more of the same in august jobs report.