Riksbank Minutes: Seim says still concerned that inflation might become too high

Seim I am concerned that inflation might become too high. There are a further number of international factors that risk increasing inflationary pressures going forward, for instance, the extreme weather in parts of Europe and Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Jansson Overall, my assessment given this is that the inflation picture now is somewhat poorer than in June. But it deserves to be emphasised that the shifts are small. Currently have more of an impact on how we communicate future inflation risks than a direct quantitative effect on our monetary policy plan, in line with the text in the draft Update. Have scope to wait before adjusting our monetary policy, even if there are some risks of elevated inflation going forward Thedeen I am becoming increasingly convinced that the upturn in economic activity is now on firmer ground. My conclusion is that the level of vigilance with regard to rising inflation must be high I assess that our next change in the policy rate needs to be a raise. Hjelm It is appropriate to begin thinking about monetary policy in a scenario where the conflict becomes long-lasting and low intensive and where consideration for possible future escalation is no longer reasonable. It is appropriate that the policy rate remains slightly expansionary, which I assess the level of 1.75 per cent to be. I consider that the risk of an escalation of the war, resulting in substantial price increases, justifies a probability of rate increases over the year. Bunge Overall, I think that it is reasonable to wait before adjusting the policy rate and to communicate today that the probability of a rate increase still stands since June.