Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 13th August 2026

The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV. USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike. US equity futures mixed, with the NQ giving back some of Wednesday's gains. DXY flat; NOK softens as the Norges Bank leaves rates unchanged but signalled progress on inflation. Fixed income benchmarks muted heading into US PPI and a US 30-year auction. Energy benchmarks steadily fall as geopolitical headlines quieten down. Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% DAX40 +0.4% Stoxx 600 +0.2% FTSE 100 -0.2% ES Sep'26 +0.1% RTY Sep'26 +0.2% NQ Sep'26 -0.1% YM Sep'26 +0.3% FX DXY U/C (99.96) EUR/USD U/C (1.1528) USD/JPY U/C (159.38) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3482) BONDS US T-Note Sep'26 +5 ticks Bund Sep'26 +7 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.670% German 10yr Yield 3.153% ENERGY & METALS WTI Sep'26 -2.0% Brent Oct'26 -2.0% Spot Gold -0.6% LME Copper -0.9% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.3% Ethereum +0.4% As of 10:25BST / 05:25EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board, outside of the FTSE 100 given that 19% of the index is trading ex-divs. The positiveness follows on from the constructive tone overnight in Asia. Despite choppiness in China, Lenovo surged some 22% after the Co. reported a 43% increase in revenue to USD 26.94bln, beating expectations of USD 22.33bln. Post-earnings, the CEO said they are to achieve the USD 100bln annual revenue goal ahead of schedule and announced that they are working with Nvidia (NVDA) to launch an AI PC powered by the RTX chip later this year. Sectors point to a more mixed picture. Banks top the sector pile, followed by Consumer Products & Services and Food, Beverages & Tobacco. Basic Resources is the clear sector laggard, with Chemicals and Energy printing modest losses. US equity futures are muted, trading in narrow ranges. Despite the light volumes, there are a few key movers pre-market: Cerebras Systems (-17.4% pre-market), Q2 revenue missed estimates and gross margin fell; Cisco (-6.2% pre-market), despite Q4 earnings beat and raised its guidance. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX USD stabilises just below 100.00 after gains on Wednesday despite US CPI triggering a small dovish repricing. ING opines the USD strength seen after the data is likely a function of traders rebuilding longs as the set of July data comes to a close ahead of PPI today. Another potential factor could be this week's quiet markets, which could have triggered some carry demand, especially as the recent data do not imply a clear Fed policy direction. Today, DXY is flat within a narrow 99.91-100.08 range after facing resistance at 100.05. JPY saw some strength after Bloomberg sources indicated the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike. A report which has convinced markets, with interest rate futures now implying a 75% probability of BoJ tightening in September. This could be added to should these remarks come from Takaichi herself. USD/JPY fell c. 30 pips to a 159.18 base, before paring some of the move, now sitting around 159.40. NOK saw some weakness as while the Norges Bank left rates unchanged and keeping the door open to further tightening, it signalled inflation progress in the statement. If this progress is reflected in September's statement, it could imply a removal of the tightening bias and as such has led to the trimming of NOK longs. Despite this, the bank remains slated to hike in September, a view held by Nordea and SEB. EUR/NOK was choppy on the announcement, initially falling 0.2% to a 10.90 base, before reversing the move to a peak just above 10.97. NZD is the G10 laggard after soft one year and two year inflation expectations. Kiwi saw pressure throughout the APAC session, rebounding slightly now after surpassing the 100 and 200 DMAs in NZD/USD, reaching a 0.5820 trough. FIXED INCOME Once again, a contained start for fixed income. Major macro updates relatively light, and nothing that changes the narrative for the complex. Today, the focus is on US PPI for July, which will inform/update the calls ahead of PCE after Wednesday's CPI; as a reminder, the series sparked a modest dovish reaction in near-term Fed pricing. USTs flat in 108-15 to 108-23 parameters, looking to PPI as mentioned before Fed's Barkin (2027) and Hammack (2026), and while both have spoken recently and updated view post-CPI will be pertinent. Bunds in-fitting with the above, newsflow for the bloc has been and is scheduled to remain light. Currently a few ticks firmer in 124.65-83 parameters. A similar picture for Gilts, with no lasting reaction at the open to the morning's GDP series which, in short, was stronger-than-expected for the GDP components aside from an in-line Q2 Q/Q print. However, the series is caveated by a weaker-than-expected breakdown for June and downward revisions to the May GDP series. COMMODITIES WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures are subdued amid a lack of notable US-Iran-related updates. On diplomacy, Pakistan's key mediator has held a second meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and is seeking to extend the 60-day truce, according to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya. On the flip side, the Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV. WTI currently resides in a USD 81.64-83.30/bbl range, with prices now under yesterday’s USD 82.40-84.35/bbl. Brent resides in a USD 87.30-89.07/bbl range vs yesterday’s 88.10-90.07/bbl range. Dutch TTF is similarly subdued and back under EUR 60/MWh, with focus in Europe on no storage replenishing ahead of winter, and against the backdrop of Middle Eastern issues. Precious metals consolidate amid a lack of macro updates ahead of US PPI. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,387/oz) in a current USD 4,364-4,450/oz range. Spot silver similarly gives back yesterday’s gains (and more), with the precious metal under USD 64.50/oz vs yesterday’s 66.80/oz high. Base metals are also lower across the board amid the summer lull. Elsewhere, Antofagasta lowered its full-year 2026 copper production guidance to 625–655kmetric tons (vs prior from 650–700ktons) following a precautionary weather-related shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine in Chile. 3M LME copper hovers around the USD 14k/t mark in a current USD 13,949.58-14,133.43/t range at the time of writing. Romania's Nuclearelectrica has begun to to disconnect the final nuclear reactor, due to the continued low Danube level. TRADE/TARIFFS Mexico is pressing the US to reduce tariffs on North American autos as part of discussions over reworking the USMCA, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ. Indian Trade Ministry said they are actively in talks with the US on pending trade issues. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). UK GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.9%). UK GDP (Jun MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.0%). UK GDP (Jun YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%). UK GDP 3-Month Avg (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%). UK Industrial Production (Jun MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.7%). UK Industrial Production (Jun YY) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 1.0%). UK Manufacturing Production (Jun MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%). UK Manufacturing Production (Jun YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 2.0%). UK Goods Trade Balance (Jun) -23.01 vs. Exp. -20.5 (Prev. -21.08). UK RICS House Price Balance (Jul) -30% vs. Exp. -31% (Prev. -33%). European Industrial Production (Jun MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%) European Industrial Production (Jun YY) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -0.1%) Spanish HICP Final (Jul YY) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.6%). Spanish HICP Final (Jul MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%). Swedish CPIF Final (Jul YY) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.3%). Swedish CPIF Final (Jul MM) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.3%). CENTRAL BANKS Japanese PM Takaichi's government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike, while market sources say the BoJ could raise rates in September or October, according to Bloomberg. Norges Bank maintained its rate at 4.25%, as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate. On inflation, the statement said that slower inflation is welcome news, but inflation is still too high, and it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially. The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy stance is still needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon. RBA's Kent said the Board sets the level of the Cash Rate it judges will achieve low and stable inflation and full employment, while he added that borrowing costs have increased, mortgage payments have risen and conditions in the established housing market have turned down. Kent stated evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working, but also noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump signed a memorandum authorising US law enforcement to use cyber tools to target criminal organizations operating in foreign jurisdictions, according to The White House. The US race to compete with China on lithium runs into water battles, with Trump-backed plans to build production of critical elements undercut by community resistance, according to FT. BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Aug 8th) +6.2% Y/Y (prev. 4.7%); the rebound in spending over the past 3 weeks is consistent that the mid-July slump was a blip GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, and that President Trump has many tools to pressure Tehran in the coming months, according to Al Jazeera citing media reports. The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected the US' claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV. Iran’s Paramilitary Head Basij said the Strait of Hormuz is “under Iran’s control and management”, Fars News reported. Pakistan's Defence Minister met with Iran's ambassador to Islamabad and called for strengthening bilateral cooperation with Iran, according to IRNA. Yemeni Armed Forces announced strikes on Saudi ships and military sites, according to Press TV. US President Trump's administration criticised Israeli Defence Minister Katz's remarks about maintaining Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, stressing the comments contradict commitments Israel made under framework agreement with the US and Lebanon, according to Axios. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia hit Ukraine's Izmail port, with port infrastructure is on fire following the Russian attack, according to local authorities. Ukraine's military said they hit Russia's oil refinery in Bashkortostan, some 1,300km from the border. CRYPTO Bitcoin is contained within Wednesday's range, holding below the USD 64k handle. APAC TRADE APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region took its cue from the mild positive handover from Wall Street, where equities were underpinned by earnings, and September rate hike bets were unwound after in-line CPI data. ASX 200 bucked the trend amid various earnings releases, while RBA Assistant Governor Kent stuck to the hawkish-leaning script in which he noted the possibility of rates increasing further if risks materialise, but acknowledged evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and that the tightening earlier this year is working. Nikkei 225 rallied amid the tech momentum and following softer-than-expected PPI data for Japan. KOSPI outperformed as renewed semiconductor strength lifted the index into a technical bull market. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged, with sentiment initially dampened in Hong Kong as participants reflected on earnings, including mixed results from Tencent, while gains in the mainland were contained after the PBoC reiterated its support pledges in its quarterly implementation report, but refrained from 7-day reverse repo operations for the third consecutive day. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES RBNZ plans a paper on modernising New Zealand's payment system, including potential changes to the current framework NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP New Zealand 2-year Inflation Expectations (Q3) 2.3% (Prev. 2.5%). New Zealand 1-year Inflation Expectations (Q3) 2.6% (Prev. 3.4%). Japanese PPI (Jul MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%). Japanese PPI (Jul YY) 7.2% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.1%).