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IEA OMR: world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln bpd in 2026 assuming Strait of Hormuz flows gradually resume from June (prev. forecast 1.5mln bpd fall); Sees total world oil supply 1.78mln bpd lower than demand in 2026 (vs. prev forecast 0.41mln bpd higher)

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DEMANDSees world oil demand falling by 420k bpd in 2026 on Iran war (prev. forecast 80k bpd drop)MIDDLE EAST / HORMUZ Sees total global supply loss from Hormuz closure at 12.8 million bpd since February. War in the Middle East is depleting global oil inventories at record pace, IEA says. REFININGGlobal oil refinery runs fell by 1.6mln bpd across 2026 on attacks, lower crude availability, and export restrictions.

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