Newsquawk Daily European Opening News - 17th August 2026

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the US, and that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway. APAC stocks began the week mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias, following a quiet weekend of macro newsflow and amid geopolitical uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Crude futures were indecisive as participants continue to await a Strait of Hormuz deal and after shipping through the key waterway slowed over the weekend. DXY marginally softened in the absence of fresh macro catalysts from the US over the weekend; 10yr UST futures were range-bound. European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday. Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Activity Data [revised release time] (Jul), Canadian Inflation (Jul), and comments from ECB's Lane. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Nikkei 225 +0.4% ASX 200 -0.5% Hang Seng +1.6% Shanghai Comp +0.9% Euro Stoxx 50 Sep'26 +0.3% DAX Sep'26 -0.2% ES Sep'26 +0.1% NQ Sep'26 +0.3% FX DXY -0.1% (99.52) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1583) USD/JPY -0.1% (159.11) GBP/USD U/C (1.3550 ) BONDS US T-Note Sep'26 +3.5 ticks Bund Sep'26 -8 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.68% German 10yr Yield 3.21% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 -0.2% Brent Oct'26 U/C Spot Gold +0.3% LME Copper 1.4% CRYPTO Bitcoin +1.1% Ethereum +1.5% As of 06:15BST/01:15EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Chinese Activity Data (Jul), Canadian Inflation (Jul), Comments from ECB's Lane. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US President Trump described Iran as "very evil" at a political rally on Friday and told Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices as a result of the war, which he said was worth the cost to ensure Iran could not have a nuclear weapon. US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt to discuss a Gaza peace deal, while it was reported by Axios that the meeting was said to be very productive and Hamas leaders reaffirmed their commitment to disarmament and demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the US, and that Washington must meet conditions on the strait in order for shipping to resume in the waterway, according to an interview with Shahrara News. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and closed only under Iran's command, while he warned that as long as the US does not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade. IRGC senior commander said though Iran's military actions have remained strictly defensive since the outbreak of hostilities, the armed forces are fully prepared to adopt an offensive posture if necessary, while he cautioned adversaries to expect strategic surprises. Iran and Oman seem to be moving closer to reaching an agreement regarding management of the Strait of Hormuz, despite increasing ship attacks, while a finalisation of the shipping map is said to form part of a wider accord to govern shipping through the strait. Only five commodity vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. Qatar's PM spoke with Jordan's Foreign Minister and discussed diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions. Israel conducted artillery attacks on the city of Mansouri in southern Lebanon. Yemen conducted strikes on Saudi-linked mercenary targets in Mokha and Marib, destroying weapon depots and command facilities, according to Tehran Times citing a statement on Saturday. US TRADE EQUITIES US stocks were modestly lower on Friday in quiet trade, with the Nasdaq underperforming, while the Russell bucked the trend to close higher and the equal-weight S&P 500 was flat. Sectors were mixed, with Energy outperforming alongside firmer crude prices, while Technology and Health Care lagged. US data was soft but had little lasting market impact, as Retail Sales disappointed, while UoM Consumer Sentiment fell notably alongside declines in both Current Conditions and Expectations. However, 1-year inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the 5-year remained at 3.3%. Treasury yields rose in a bear steepening despite the softer data, with no obvious catalyst in quiet trade. Firmer oil and higher near-term UoM inflation expectations may have provided some pressure, while Fed pricing was little changed with a September hold still around 67%. SPX -0.18% at 7,785, NDX -0.13% at 30,046, DJI -0.20% at 53,733, RUT +0.56% at 3,070. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE US President Trump’s administration doesn’t want Apple (AAPL) to purchase memory chips from Chinese firms CXMT and YMTC, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal on Friday citing an interview with Commerce Secretary Lutnick. NOTABLE HEADLINES US President Trump said he had "a great weekend" and held "many meetings", while he separately talked up the US in a post on Truth Social and said he is heading back into the Oval Office to continue working on more triumphs and successes for the country. US President Trump called for the Senate to vote on the NO MORE CHANGING THE CLOCKS ACT as soon as possible. APAC TRADE EQUITIES APAC stocks began the week mixed, albeit with a mostly positive bias, following a quiet weekend of macro newsflow and amid geopolitical uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire. Participants also digested a deluge of earnings and the latest data releases, while markets in South Korea are closed in observance of Liberation Day. ASX 200 was subdued as weakness in consumer discretionary, financials and real estate offset the gains in miners, resources and materials, while there is a slew of earnings releases, including 'big 4' bank NAB, which posted higher profits but noted cooling home loan demand. Nikkei 225 price action was choppy following disappointing GDP data, which could support the argument for the BoJ to refrain from hiking rates next month, although money markets are still leaning towards the central bank resuming rate increases at the September conclave. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive amid a slew of earnings and with the advances in Hong Kong led by chipmaker SMIC, while platform companies such as JD.com and Alibaba were also underpinned, with the latter helped by the sale of its gaming arm and news its AI models hit 3bln downloads. The mainland was also positive, but with further upside contained as activity data for China is due for release at a revised time of 3pm local time (08:00 BST). US equity futures were mixed after the recent soft data and amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday. FX DXY marginally softened in the absence of fresh macro catalysts from the US over the weekend and despite the initial gains in oil prices, while participants await key looming deadlines, including the expiry of the US-Iran MoU on Monday, and with US tariffs of 50% on some Canadian goods set to take effect on Wednesday. Furthermore, Fed rhetoric has been quiet, although participants will get to digest the FOMC Minutes mid-week ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled on August 27th-29th. EUR/USD lingered around a 2-month high after benefitting from last week's soft US data but remains contained beneath the 1.1600 handle amid light newsflow from the bloc. GBP/USD held on to its recent spoils after returning to the 1.3500 territory and with little reaction seen to the negative Rightmove House Price data, while several pertinent data releases are scheduled for the UK this week, including jobs and earnings data on Tuesday, inflation figures on Wednesday, and Retail Sales on Friday. USD/JPY slightly trickled lower following last Friday's fluctuations and retested the 159.00 level to the downside amid a softer buck and despite the disappointing GDP data from Japan. Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances and are seemingly unconcerned by the looming Chinese economic data. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7873 vs exp. 6.7382 (prev. 6.7878). FIXED INCOME 10yr UST futures were range-bound following last Friday's fluctuations, while there was a lack of fresh macro drivers for the US over the weekend, and participants look ahead to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Bund futures were contained near last week's trough after sliding from around the 125.00 level. 10yr JGB futures tracked recent declines in global peers and tested 126.00 to the downside as money markets continued to price a greater likelihood of a hike than a hold for the September meeting, despite the weaker-than-expected GDP data. COMMODITIES Crude futures were indecisive as participants continue to await a Strait of Hormuz deal and after shipping through the key waterway slowed over the weekend, with only five commodity vessels transiting through the strait on Saturday and none on Sunday, while the overall geopolitical situation remains uncertain with the US-Iran MoU set to expire today. India is preparing a large LPG output increase amid the ongoing Hormuz uncertainty. Spot gold edged higher and retested the USD 4,400/oz level before paring some of the gains. Copper futures benefitted alongside the positive risk appetite in the red metal's largest buyer, despite the incoming Chinese activity data, with the release time revised to 15:00 local time. CRYPTO Bitcoin gradually edged higher overnight and climbed back above the USD 63,000 level. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China revised the release time for July economic data to 15:00 local time (08:00BST/03:00EDT) on Monday, while the State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on the data at the same time. China is speeding up establishing rules for recycling and reusing wind and solar equipment, while it aims to set up a closed-loop system for waste from the industry before 2030. Hong Kong air passenger traffic rose 11.7% Y/Y, according to Financial Secretary Chan. Alibaba’s (9988 HK) open-weight models reached more than 3bln global downloads during the last six months, making Qwen the world’s number one AI model. Around 5,000 people have been evacuated after a magnitude-7.7 earthquake hit eastern Indonesia, which killed at least 51 people. Indian PM Modi said they are determined to make India a ‘developed’ nation by 2047, and that India will have up to 8 more chip plants in the next 7 or 8 years. DATA RECAP Japanese GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q2 QQ) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%) Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Prel (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. 1.8%) GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump posted, "Very happy to see that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have recently, and finally, signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. It shows how the Middle East is coming together, and how Countries will finally be able to defend themselves in a more meaningful way." RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine attacked a production unit of the Roscosmos space agency in Samara, as it continued its strikes targeting military and related infrastructure deep inside Russia. Zelensky also announced that Ukraine's military struck an oil facility in Ust-Luga. Ukrainian drones struck the Moscow region overnight on Sunday in what the provincial governor called one of the largest ‌attacks in the region. NATO F-18 jet shot down a suspected Russian drone after it breached Romanian airspace. EU foreign policy chief Kallas announced plans to introduce the most extensive sanctions package against Russia since the beginning of the war in the coming months. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it requests an explanation from the US and Turkey regarding alleged plans for arms supplies to Ukraine, while it stated that such action would undermine Moscow’s relations with Washington and Ankara. OTHER US President Trump posted "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it is too late to cancel, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises! While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!” Thank you for your attention to this matter." South Korean President Lee called for a sit-down with North Korea to pursue peaceful coexistence and wants to transform the Korean peninsula’s unstable armistice into a peace regime. UK Ministry of Defence is stepping up scrutiny of its supply chain after discovering some naval drones transmitted signals to China. GLOBAL NEWS US mulls new sanctions against a Brazilian Supreme Court judge as a diplomatic crisis threatens to drag relations between the two countries to their lowest point in decades, according to FT. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES UK Housing Secretary Rayner is to announce changes to the national planning policy framework to make it impossible for developers to shut down pubs unless there is “no reasonable prospect” of keeping them going, according to FT. JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warned UK Chancellor Healey against raising bank taxes and creating a more hostile tax environment for banks, as the financial services sector prepares to embark on a major lobbying campaign ahead of the October Budget, according to FT. Belgium's largest wildfire on record was heading towards the German border. Fitch affirmed the UK at ‘AA-‌’‌; outlook Stable. DATA RECAP UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Aug) -2.0% (Prev. -1.0%) UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Aug) -1.0% (Prev. -0.4%)