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UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jul) 52.1 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.3)

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UK July PMI beat expectations at 52.1, led by manufacturing and temporary hospitality boosts. However, supply chain risks and persistent underlying inflation keep Bank of England policy outlook cautious.

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“Hospitality companies saw demand boosted by good weather, the FIFA World Cup and more domestic holidays, as high costs and uncertainty continued to deter some foreign travel. However, overall services growth remained lacklustre amid cost-of-living pressures." "Manufacturing is now growing faster than services, buoyed by rising exports. One caveat is that manufacturers and their customers continued to build precautionary stocks, widely linked to supply chain disruption caused by the war in the Middle East, meaning part of the recent factory upturn could prove short-lived." "Price pressures cooled thanks to the lower oil prices seen during the first half of the month, which could strengthen speculation that the Bank of England will hold off raising interest rates. However, inflationary pressures clearly remain elevated, as the ongoing energy shock and supply squeeze from the war in the Middle East continues to add to existing business cost pressures from earlier government policies."

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