Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 11th August 2026

There was a maritime incident reported in Bab al-Mandab, with Fars reporting that a Saudi ship was reportedly targeted by the Yemeni army. Separately, the UKMTO has received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman. RBA maintained rates as expected and kept a hawkish tone, but trimmed its CPI forecasts; AUD saw mild pressure. US equity futures are muted while European bourses fall on higher energy prices (Brent +2.2%).   Fixed income benchmarks fall but on low volumes ahead of US CPI on Wednesday. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales (Jul), Supply from the US, Earnings from Supermicro & CoreWeave. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 U/C DAX40 -0.4% Stoxx 600 -0.1% FTSE 100 -0.1% ES Sep'26 U/C RTY Sep'26 -0.1% NQ Sep'26 +0.1% YM Sep'26 -0.1% FX DXY +0.1% (99.87) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1533) USD/JPY U/C (159.32) GBP/USD -0.1% (1.3500) BONDS US T-Note Sep'26 -7 ticks Bund Sep'26 -23 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.729% German 10yr Yield 3.199% ENERGY & METALS WTI Sep'26 +2.5% Brent Oct'26 +2.2% Spot Gold -0.4% LME Copper +0.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.4% Ethereum +0.3% As of 10:50BST / 05:50EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses trade mostly in the red, outside of the AEX and IBEX 35, as higher energy prices weigh on indices. The source of the move higher in energy came amid reports that a Saudi ship was reportedly targeted near Bab-al-Mandab. As a reminder, the Houthis have vowed in recent days to continue operations targeting Saudi oil tankers. Sectors have a negative bias. Energy is the only sector with clear gains, given the upside in energy benchmarks (Brent +2.5%). The sector laggard is Travel & Leisure, with Insurance and Construction rounding out the underperformers. US equity futures are essentially flat. Focus today will be after-hours, with CoreWeave and Supermicro set to report earnings. For CoreWeave, guidance will be highly watched, as the Co. has said that the benefits of the recent investments in data centre capacity should start showing in H2’26. In other news, Nvidia (NVDA) confirmed it has partnered with Apollo (APO), Blackrock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Brookfield, Goldman Sachs (GS) and KKR (KKR) to establish AI compute infrastructure financing platforms to mobilise over USD 500bln of third-party capital. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Quiet action across G10s sees most currencies flat against the Buck with geopolitics driving the little moves seen. DXY attempting to build on Monday's gains, now looking towards the 100.00 mark as elevated energy benchmarks continue to support the Greenback (see commodities), price action which has supported a couple more bps of tightening across Fed expectations. Focus this week is overwhelmingly on the CPI print, especially since FT sources before NFP suggested Warsh was focused on the inflation side of the mandate heading into the September meeting. Data scheduled today includes the weekly ADP release, while the Fed speaker slate is light. AUD broadly unchanged after the RBA left rates unchanged, in line with analyst/market expectations. Some immediate AUD weakness on the statement as it tweaked language around inflation vigilance ("prepared to increase the cash rate if required" -> "...if upside risks materialise"), added the description of policy as "somewhat restrictive", and revised inflation forecasts lower, points which reinforce the view the bank is comfortable and set to remain on hold until mid-2027 as markets expect. However, the hawkish presser, "Possible we need to hike again" saw a reversal of that kneejerk lower, leaving AUD/USD just 10 pips lower at 0.7050. Some banks still caution there are hawkish risks to the outlook, while ING, Westpac and MUFG are some of the banks maintaining calls for unch. in 2026; RBA market pricing reflects the same, steady post-announcement. Some continued strength in energy exporters against the Dollar as geopolitics lacks positive updates, with CAD (+0.1%) and NOK (+0.1%). The latter has passed 1.00 in the Scandi cross (NOK/SEK +0.2%) as SEK suffers as a net importer. Action elsewhere is quiet, GBP, JPY, CHF all flat against the USD; EUR also unch. vs. the Buck, though firmer against most CEE, HUF to the largest degree. FIXED INCOME A bearish session for the space, after being relatively contained overnight despite the incremental upticks in energy seen after POTUS commentary and the general lack of progress. However, the bias became much more apparent in the early European morning, as energy lifted from a maritime incident in Bab al-Mandab (see Commodities for more details). Amidst this, USTs fell from 108-09 to 108-04, lower by 7+ ticks at most. Bunds and Gilts follow suit directionally, down to lows of 124.28 and 86.33 respectively. Lower by 21 and 53 ticks, respectively. The docket for both is light. The German Bobl auction was broadly in line with the prior auction, but it did result in modest upticks in Bund futures. Germany sells EUR 4.627bln vs Exp. 6bln 2.90% 3031 Bobl: b/c 1.48x (prev. 1.48x), average yield 2.93% (prev. 2.89%), retention 22.9% (prev. 24.1%). COMMODITIES WTI Sep and Brent Oct futures are on a firmer footing with upside this morning seen amid reports a Saudi ship was targeted near Bab al-Mandab. Rhetoric also remains tense, with US President Trump saying, regarding potential escalation with Iran, that it is certainly possible and still has the ability to escalate. Furthermore, US President Trump, responding to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, said he was demanding compensation from Iran. Market focus remains around the prospect of getting oil flowing through both the Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, with a US-Iran deal proving elusive and the Iran-Oman Hormuz deal unfavourable for Washington. Brent resides in a USD 87.41-90.02/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 87.93/bbl high. WTI trades towards the top end of a USD 81.91-84.46/bbl range, vs yesterday’s 82.38/bbl peak. Dutch TTF is flat after finding resistance around EUR 62.50/MWh but remains north of EUR 60/MWh. Precious metals are weaker as energy prices continue to edge higher, adding to inflationary and growth concerns. Spot gold resides around its 100 DMA (USD 4,389/oz) in a current USD 4,356-4,435/oz range, vs yesterday’s 4,395/oz peak, with the 200 DMA at USD 4,497/oz. Spot silver is similarly subdued towards the bottom of a USD 64.23-66.48/oz. Base metals are mixed/flat, with downside from energy cushioned amid ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,103.00- 14,199.40/t range at the time of writing. Iranian Oil Minister said 95mln cubic meters of gas will return to the production cycle by the end of September. Romania said it is to shut down its second nuclear reactor in the next 48 hours amid low water levels at Danube. Chile's Codelco copper production fell 4.8% Y/Y to 114,400 tonnes in June, Escondida copper mine production rose 45.8% Y/Y to 111,400 tonnes, Collahuasi mine copper production rose 1.7% Y/Y to 34,900 tonnes in June, according to Cochilco. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES Swedish NIER Economic Forecasts: Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% (prev. 2.2%), maintains 2027 GDP growth; Maintains 2026 CPIF, cuts 2027 CPIF to 2.2% (prev. 2.1%). NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP Italian Trade Balance (Jun) 4.232 vs. Exp. 4.74 (Prev. 4.793). UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul YY) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.7%). CENTRAL BANKS RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that inflation is still elevated and risks are skewed to the upside, but noted financial conditions appear to be somewhat restrictive and it trimmed its CPI forecasts. RBA stated that the Board will remain attentive to incoming data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks when guiding its decisions, while it remains focused on preventing high inflation from becoming entrenched and will continue to do what it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the Cash Rate further if upside risks materialise. It also stated that inflation remains too high and is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027, with upside risks to that projection. However, it also stated following three increases since the start of the year, financial conditions are now tighter than previously and the economy appears to be slowing as expected, as well as stated that financial conditions in Australia appear somewhat restrictive and the economy is expected to return to balance in 2027, a little earlier than previously forecast. In the post-policy press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said they see upside risks to inflation and that they will raise rates again if needed. She added that they did not discuss a rate cut at the meeting, only a raise or hold. The BoJ may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next policy meeting September 17th-18th, following a hike in June, in response to rising risks of higher inflation, according to informed sources cited by Jiji. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST There was a maritime incident reported in Bab al-Mandab, with Fars reporting that a Saudi ship was reportedly targeted by the Yemeni army. In other news, Yemeni sources said a second missile targeted a ship while the coast guard was rescuing its crew in Bab al-Mandab. The UKMTO has received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the world should hold the US accountable for the Hormuz block, while Hormuz security requires end to US aggression, according to Fars News Agency. Yemen military source said government forces launched a concentrated attack on militia positions in Harib, Shabwa, according to Al Arabiya. Explosions reported in Yemen's Marib, according to SNN. Lebanon and Israel are expected to hold the next round of talks in early September, according to Al-Arabiya. Israeli forces conducted new strikes in southern Lebanon, according to SNN. RUSSIA-UKRAINE Kyiv's mayor said there were explosions in the capital and that the city was under ballistic attack. Ukraine's Military said it attacked an oil refinery in Russia's Orsk. Turkey is said to be discussing a mechanism with Russia and Ukraine a mechanism to prevent attacks on ships in the Black Sea, RIA reported citing a Turkish cabinet source. CRYPTO Bitcoin pares some of Monday's selloff, but holds below the 20-SMA of USD 64.15k. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mixed following a lacklustre lead from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was constrained by higher oil prices and yields amid geopolitical uncertainty, while conditions in Asia were thinned due to the Japanese holiday closure. ASX 200 gained amid strength in energy and miners following recent upside in underlying commodity prices, but with upside capped after weak NAB business confidence and heading into the RBA which kept rates unchanged as expected and maintained its hawkish tone, although it was slightly less hawkish, with the central bank acknowledging that financial conditions in Australia appear somewhat restrictive and it also trimmed CPI forecasts. KOSPI climbed alongside a rebound in tech and with notable gains in Samsung Electronics. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre after the PBoC opted for zero liquidity operations today, although the downside in the mainland was cushioned following prior reports that China issued the first new round of consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China's CPCA said China sold 1.47mln passenger cars in July (vs 1.651mln in June, -21.1% Y/Y); Tesla (TSLA) exported 66,330 vehicles in July (vs 36,000 in June). NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP South Korean August 1st-10th Exports rose 45.3% Y/Y, Imports rose 23.1% Y/Y, Trade Balance at a provisional surplus of USD 1.8bln. Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul) -6 (Prev. -5). Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jul) 4 (Prev. 3).