FOMC Summary of Economic Projections: Only 18 of 19 members submitted forecasts (expectations were for Warsh to not submit forecasts)

GDP: (exp. = ING Forecast) 2026: 2.3% (exp. 2.2%, prev. 2.2%) 2027: 2.4% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.3%) 2028: 2.2% (exp. 2.2%, prev. 2.2%) 2029: 2.1% (exp. 2.2%) Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Unemployment: (exp. = ING Forecast) 2026: 4.1% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.3%) 2027: 4.1% (exp. 4.3%, prev. 4.3%) 2028: 4.1% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) 2029: 4.1% (exp. 4.2%) Longer run: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) Core PCE: (exp. = ING Forecast) 2026: 3.4% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.3%) 2027: 2.5% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.5%) 2028: 2.2% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.1%) 2029: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%) Longer run: (exp. 2.0%) Federal Funds Rate: (exp. = Bloomberg consensus) 2026: 4.1% (exp. 3.875%, prev. 3.8%) 2027: 4.1% (exp. 3.875%, prev. 3.6%) 2028: 3.9% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.4%) 2029: 3.6% (exp. 3.375%) Longer run: 3.2% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%) Distribution of dots for 2026: Two hikes, 4.375%: 4 One hike, 4.125%: 12 Unchanged, 3.875%: 2 Distribution of dots for 2027: Two hikes, 4.375%: 8 One hike, 4.125%: 6 Unchanged, 3.875%: 0 One cut, 3.625%: 3 Two cuts, 3.375%: 0 Three cuts, 3.125%: 1