Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 15th September 2026

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing. The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph. Global equities continue to be weighed on by higher energy prices and bond yields. DXY edges higher; GBP unreactive following a mixed jobs report. Fixed income benchmarks fall, with USTs underperforming; Gilts little moved amid the Telegraph report. Energy benchmarks remain at elevated levels as Houthis continue to strike Saudi military sites. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone and US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Supply from the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% DAX40 -0.4% Stoxx 600 -0.8% FTSE 100 -0.6% ES Sep'26 -0.4% RTY Sep'26 -0.5% NQ Sep'26 -0.5% YM Sep'26 -0.6% FX DXY +0.2% (99.63) EUR/USD -0.1% (1.1536) USD/JPY +0.4% (154.95) GBP/USD -0.2% (1.3476) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -13 ticks Bund Dec'26 -11 ticks US 10yr Yield 5.025% German 10yr Yield 3.547% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 +2.5% Brent Nov'26 +2.1% Spot Gold -0.7% LME Copper -0.2% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.6% Ethereum -1.6% As of 10:55BST / 05:55EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) are entirely in the red, as higher energy prices and yields continue to weigh on equities. Not much in terms of geopolitics overnight, outside of the continued strikes on Saudi airbases by the Houthis. On the data front, the UK jobs report was mixed; payrolls fell more than expected while the unemployment rate held steady. Little reaction was seen in the FTSE 100. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Retail the only sector printing modest gains. Financial Services is the clear sector laggard, with Basic Resources and Consumer Products & Services following closely behind. US equity futures follow their European peers, with focus remaining on the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday. According to Macro Risk Advisors, an 8-10% pullback in the S&P is expected if the Fed starts a rate-hiking cycle, as higher rates will "compress margins in companies that cannot pass costs through as well as deliver a volatility shock into a market that is not positioned for it." Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: G10s are broadly lower against the USD, which continues to benefit from stronger energy prices and elevated yields. The JPY remains the underperformer on wider yield differentials, whilst high-beta Antipodeans have been pressured by the risk environment. DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 99.47 to 99.68 range. Strength is facilitated by higher energy prices and elevated yields, with the US 10-year topping the 5.00% mark. Should geopols/yields remain stable heading into the FOMC on Wednesday, then the index will likely hover within recent ranges. JPY continues to underperform, paring back a few weeks of strength. As mentioned previously, the next bout of strength for the JPY would likely require a hawkish BoJ this week - one which would see policymakers explicitly guide for a faster pace of rate hikes. Elsewhere, Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires earlier, where she stated that she was not aware of reports that the government plans to boost defence budget spending to 3.5% of GDP (vs current 1.9%). GBP has been hampered by the broad USD strength. Earlier, markets saw the release of a mixed Jobs/Wages report, whereby Unemployment remained steady at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst the wages components were in-line. Overall, it will not do much to shift views at the BoE ahead of Thursday’s meeting, where expectations are for rates to remain on hold. FIXED INCOME Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the red, and yields have risen to multi-decade/record highs. USTs (-14 ticks) are the clear underperformers, whilst Bunds (-20 ticks) and Gilts (-14 ticks) also remain in the red. USTs are the clear underperformers today. It appears that an accumulation of a) higher energy prices, b) hawkish Fed repricing, c) fiscal stability woes have all caught up to the benchmark. Moreover, there may be some concession heading into the US 20-year auction later today; for reference, the Japanese outing for the same maturity was solid. From a yield perspective, the US 10-year (5.02%) holds beyond the key 5.00% mark, after making a peak of 5.04% earlier this morning. This brings the yield to levels not seen since the GFC. The Fed policy decision on Wednesday should see yields edge off highs (at the long-end), however, a convincing breach below the 5% mark would also likely require a hawkish SEP/commentary. This, in theory, would help ease stability concerns at the long-end; but of course, other factors such as AI-issuance and the Middle East crisis will temper any moves lower. Gilts are pressured alongside peers, given energy dynamics. Earlier, a mixed jobs/wages report had little impact on Gilts at the open; the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst wages were in-line. On the supply side, The Telegraph reported that the BoE has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts. Bunds follow the above. There was little move to WPI, which saw the M/M top expectations. Thereafter, the German ZEW Survey was released, where Economic Sentiment rose incrementally from the prior, whilst Current Conditions improved. No move was seen in Bunds following the data. The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph. Germany sells EUR 3.817bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.70% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.26x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 3.27% (prev. 2.85%), retention 23.66% (prev. 23.4%). UK sells GBP 1.25bln 2029 Gilt via Tender: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.61x), average yield 4.818% (prev. 4.062%). Japan sells JPY 532.1bln 20-year JGBs: b/c 4.01x (prev. 3.98), average yield 3.856% (prev. 3.698%), Tail in price 0.15 (prev. 0.17). COMMODITIES WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remain firmer as the Middle East conflict continues to underpin the complex, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still offline following attacks, Riyadh seeking to boost shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran reiterating that the Strait remains closed and under its control. WTI trades towards the bottom end of a USD 101.83-103.49/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.53-104.95/bbl range), while Brent resides close to the current intraday peak within a USD 106.25-107.86/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 104.80-109.80/bbl range). Dutch TTF are currently flat and off earlier highs, trading around EUR 82.50/MWh within a EUR 81.76-83.42/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 79.52-84.50/MWh range), with the increasing energy-supply risks continuing to underpin European gas ahead of winter. Precious metals are softer as the firmer USD and high oil prices reinforce expectations of a Fed hike tomorrow. Spot gold has slipped back below USD 4,300/oz and trades within a USD 4,261-4,317/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,253-4,355/oz range), with the 100 DMA at USD 4,328.90/oz). Base metals are subdued amid the firmer USD, softer risk tone and mixed Chinese activity data, with weak retail sales and investment offset somewhat by stronger industrial production. Copper is also pressured by fresh deliveries into LME warehouses signalling easing supply tightness. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 14k/t in a USD 13,985.85-14,083.68/t range. Half of Russia’s leading diesel-producing refineries have reduced output following drone strikes. Libya's oil and gas minister said they plan to raise nat gas production to 4bln SCFD within 3-5 years. EPA Administrator said the US is proposing to rescind all major greenhouse gas emission standards for all power plants. Oman November OSP for November delivery set at USD 128.48/bbl. China Steel Association said it condemns overproduction and urges controls and urges for supply-side remedies, and strictly enforces output controls. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES ECB’s Moulin said the current increase in long-term bond yields reflects higher supply and increased inflation expectations and added that the inflation outlook justified recent ECB rate rise. On government debt, he said member states must take steps to reduce budget deficits. Specifically for France, he said that France’s debt agency has no problem selling bonds, with no difficulty for the French Treasury in raising funds. Worldpanel said UK Grocery inflation at 2.3% in 4 weeks to Sep (vs 2.1% in Aug). NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.9%). UK Employment Change (Jul) 67K (Prev. 83K). UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Aug) -26K vs Exp. -5K (Prev. -19K). UK Claimant Count Change (Aug) 27.8K vs. Exp. 8.3K (Prev. -11.8K). UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jul 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%). UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 3MYr) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.2%). European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep) 25.8 vs. Exp. 39.9 (Prev. 31.4). German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep) 34.7 vs. Exp. 37 (Prev. 34.2). German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep) -47.1 vs. Exp. -52.2 (Prev. -61.1). French HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.4%). French HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%). Spanish HICP Final (Aug YY) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 3.9%). Spanish CPI Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.3%). German Wholesale Prices (Aug MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%). German Wholesale Prices (Aug YY) 6.8% (Prev. 5.3%). CENTRAL BANKS ECB staff committee urged for clarification whether President Lagarde will leave before the end of the term, warning that prolonged uncertainty risks damaging trust in the institution, according to FT. NBP's Zarzecki said there's minimal room for Polish rate changes until end-2026. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump posted "Just like I delivered on the Great Big Beautiful Bill, which everyone said was impossible to pass, and the $1,776 to our great Military Warriors, I will get the $5000 for adult citizens if the Republicans win the House and Senate. JUST GET OUT AND VOTE!!!" US House Democrats will reportedly challenge US Treasury Secretary Bessent on rising costs at the Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Semafor reported citing a memo, with questions also to include bonds, tariffs, Russia, Iran and crypto. US Supreme Court rejected Trump administration mail ballot curbs for the Midterms. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing. Iran's top security official Rezaei said don’t get distracted by the US President’s mixed signals from 'no negotiations' to 'we’re ready to talk', while he added that stakes around oil and the straits have changed, damage control won’t stop what’s coming, and there will be no talks until Iran's conditions are met, period! Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi held a phone call with Lebanon's House of Representatives Speaker Berri and discussed the need to strengthen coordination to confront Israel's efforts to ignite wars against Lebanon and countries in the region. Araghchi stressed Iran's keenness to preserve Lebanon's national sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Israeli aggression, while he affirmed Iran's full support for the proud Lebanese resistance in the face of Israeli occupation and aggression. UKMTO said they received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that a vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile. UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday regarding developments around the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, according to Fars News Agency. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with the leader of Iraq’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). RUSSIA-UKRAINE Sources cited by Russian press said US President Trump's statement on an energy truce is "an impromptu move", and that no decision was made on an energy truce in the latest talks in Moscow between the US delegation and Russian President Putin. Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the US has never offered concessions to Russia over the Ukraine conflict in exchange for Moscow’s assistance in resolving the Iranian issue, Interfax reported. Furthermore, Lavrov said Russia is ready for reasonable compromises on Ukraine. Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov plans to meet US Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, RIA reported. Ukraine President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces made new gains at the Syzran refinery and struck a UAV production facility in Taganrog, a UAV preparation and launch base in the Oryol region, and targets in the Black Sea NATO military jets were scrambled in Lithuania due to a drone near Vilnius and a military fighter jet shot down the drone in Lithuanian airspace, according to the National Crisis Management Centre. A Russian presidential aide warned that if Poland enters a war against Russia, Moscow would use its entire military arsenal. CRYPTO Bitcoin completely reverses Monday's gains as optimism over the passage of a key US regulatory bill wanes, and has fallen back below the USD 77k mark. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development, which President Trump pushed back against, while participants digested mixed Chinese activity data and await major central bank meetings. ASX 200 underperformed amid weakness in the mining, materials, resources and financial sectors, while risk sentiment was also not helped by the rising yield environment. Nikkei 225 was choppy, while Kioxia benefited from reports that Kioxia is weighing a US listing next year. However, the index then stumbled and briefly turned negative before rebounding again. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid the choppy mood in the local tech giants. South Korea's main stock exchange saw its first after-hours trading session, trading between 16:00-20:00 KST. According to data cited by Bloomberg, volatility spikes in individual stocks triggered brief trading halts 1,637 times, over 4x the number during the regular session. This shows the lack of liquidity provided and will therefore remain risky until institutional traders provide more liquidity. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive following several data releases from China, including a continued contraction in House Prices and mixed activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts but Retail Sales disappointed, while Fixed Assets Investment weakened and the Urban Unemployment ticked higher. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES China's stats bureau said August economic activity was generally steady, though the impact of an unfavourable external environment is deepening. NBS stated residents' ability and willingness to spend should be enhanced, while it added the supply of high-quality goods and services should be improved. Japan is said to mull raising defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, according to Bloomberg. However, Finance Minister Katayama stated that she is not aware of the report. Japan Finance Minister Katayama said Japan will include that a food sales tax cut will be limited to two years in upcoming legislation and that Japan will assess tax revenue, review spending and aim to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio in the upcoming budgeting process. Katayama added that Japan will control new debt issuance through the combined initial and supplementary budgets. Furthermore, she said the government will maintain market credibility by reviewing spending and revenue and will not rely on deficit-financing bonds to fund tax cuts. Japanese PM Takaichi is set to reshuffle LDP executives on Wednesday ahead of a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP Chinese Industrial Production (Aug YY) 5.2% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.5%). Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (Aug YY) -7.2% vs. Exp. -7.2% (Prev. -6.7%). Chinese Retail Sales (Aug YY) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%). Chinese Unemployment Rate (Aug) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.2%). Chinese House Price Index (Aug YY) -3.0% (Prev. -3.2%). Chinese House Price Index (Aug MM) -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%).