Fed's Collins (2028 Voter) says inflation is still too high, and is concerned about price stability part of the Fed's mandate; labour market consistent with full employment, economy growing at a near-trend pace
Fed's Collins warned that inflation remains too high, signaling that rate hikes could be appropriate if sustained disinflation fails to materialize despite full employment.
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Labour Market: Sharply reduced immigration and population aging should keep labour force and labour demand in balance. A balanced labour market and continued productivity growth could also support a gradual disinflation. Inflation: Concerns re. high prices are "pervasive" amongst contracts in the New England region. Will be looking for evidence in coming months that inflation is durably returning to 2%. Consider disinflation the most likely outcome based on limited additional tariffs and progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. There are also less benign scenarios, including rising inflation from the AI buildout and supply shocks. Will be watching whether productivity helps offset inflation, oil prices and changes in inflation expectations. Policy: Current monetary policy is "mildly restrictive". The rise in longer-term interest rates should work against a re-acceleration in demand. Maintaining the current policy rate will need continued evidence that inflation is falling. It would be appropriate to raise interest rates soon absent evidence of sustained disinflation.
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