Fed Governor Waller (Voter) says if he gets another higher reading on inflation, he will treat that as signal, not noise; says it will be a useful signal
Fed Governor Waller proposed targeting an inflation range and reforming forward guidance while emphasizing that another high inflation reading would signal a need for policy action.
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Inflation If inflation comes down in the next reading, he will need a couple more that way to see that as a signal. Thinks credibility is in tact, markets believe Fed will get inflation down to 2%. Likes how the Fed has a clear price index for their benchmark. Can't have inflation be like porn; you know it when you see it. Thats not how central bankers should think. Personally would prefer an inflation range target. Seems reasonable to aim for 1.5-2.5% inflation. Sometimes a point estimate is too restrictive in terms of judging success and failure. Labour market BLS is getting more responses later in the payrolls survey cycle. Not worried about bigger BLS payrolls revisions. Some of the job market uncertainty resolved itself this year, it has been a stunning turnaround. Forward guidance Have been a skeptic of the dots for a long time, would change them in some key ways. Says he would get rid of the long-run estimates, would not go beyond 18 months. Would release the dots a day after the meeting. Cannot speak for the commitee but can speak to the median point of the dots. Not interested in symbolic rate hikes. Balance Sheet Wish had never bought MBS. It is goign to take another decade to get rid of MBS. Task forces Regime change means you do not ask the current regime to run one of the task forces. Going to learn a lot from the task forces. All are going to have valuable impact.
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