Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 17th September 2026

US President Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act. US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices. On Iran, Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war. US equity futures climb and have pared entirely the downside seen post-Fed. DXY gives back some of Wednesday's gains; NZD strengthens following a stronger growth report. US 10-year yields fall back below 5%; Gilts on watch with BoE ahead.   Energy benchmarks fall amid a lack of geopolitical escalation and constructive Trump comments. Looking ahead highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Supply from the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% DAX40 +0.5% Stoxx 600 +0.6% FTSE 100 +0.5% ES Sep'26 +0.8% RTY Sep'26 +0.8% NQ Sep'26 +1.0% YM Sep'26 +0.7% FX DXY -0.2% (100.18) EUR/USD +0.1% (1.1475) USD/JPY -0.4% (155.66) GBP/USD +0.1% (1.3395) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +3 ticks Bund Dec'26 -28 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.992% German 10yr Yield 3.531% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 -1.1% Brent Nov'26 -1.3% Spot Gold +1.1% LME Copper +1.1% CRYPTO Bitcoin +0.4% Ethereum +0.9% As of 10:55BST / 05:55EDT EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses are firmer across the board, helped by lower energy prices, while the rebound in fixed income is also lifting equities. For the FTSE 100 specifically, focus will be on the BoE decision, with a hold expected at 3.75%. Sectors have a clear positive bias. Travel & Leisure top the sector pile, with Industrials and Telecoms following closely behind. Only sectors in the red are Optimised Personal Care, Real Estate and Construction. US equity futures have steadily bid higher throughout the European morning, with the ES completely reversing the downside following the hawkish FOMC announcement. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: G10s are mostly firmer against the USD this morning, which is giving back some of its post-FOMC strength. The JPY moves higher as traders eye the BoJ tomorrow, whilst the Kiwi benefits post-GDP, which was stronger than expected. DXY soared following the Fed’s decision to lift rates by 25bps. Whilst this was expected, what did come as a shock to markets was the unanimous decision and hawkish dot plot, with the median showing another 25bps hike in 2026. The hawkish meeting lifted yields further beyond the 5% mark, but it does help ease concerns related to the Fed’s credibility/stability. Traders will now await Fed speak as the blackout period gets lifted; Bowman and Schmid are the first scheduled to speak on Friday. On the subject of the Yen, the BoJ is set to deliver a 25bps hike at Friday’s meeting. That likely would not be enough to materially strengthen the JPY any further; however, any indication that the Bank could increase the pace of rate hikes would likely do so. (A full BoJ preview can be found in the Research Suite) Elsewhere for the JPY, attention has been on the latest cabinet reshuffle. It has been viewed by markets as a policy continuation, and little cause for concern for the currency. PM Takaichi has been on the wires this morning, where she has largely reiterated her proactive fiscal approach. GBP trades steady this morning vs USD, with all attention on the BoE later today. The Bank is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the vote split likely mirroring the July decision at 6–3. Incoming data since the previous meeting have been mixed but, on balance, supportive of a hold, while the proximity of the Autumn Budget also argues against a significant policy shift or signal at this meeting. Attention will be on whether the Bank tries to push back on market pricing, which currently fully prices in a hike by December. FIXED INCOME Global fixed income benchmarks are mixed, with USTs outperforming, paring back some of the pressure seen following the hawkish FOMC announcement. As the European session got underway, USTs rebounded from the post-FOMC lows, and returned to the 106.00 mark, a move which came alongside pressure in the crude complex. With the Fed out of the way, focus will be on the BoE today and the BoJ early in tomorrow's session. For the BoE, markets expect the Bank to keep rates steady at 3.75% with the vote split seen at 6-3. Lombardelli is seen as the member on the fence, and could tilt the vote to 5-4. The annual QT vote is also due, with the pace of balance-sheet reduction expected to slow to GBP 50bln from GBP 70bln. Active sales are expected to remain at around GBP 20bln, although reports suggest the BoE will halt sales of long-dated gilts in the 20-30yr region. Thus far, Gilts reside in a 84.69-85.15 band. Regarding the BoJ, it is widely expected that rates will be hiked by 25bps to 1.25%, with money markets fully pricing in a hike. Multiple source reports have helped markets bake in a rate hike, while hawkish commentary by BoJ members has pointed to the need for further hikes, with Takata even calling for the possibility of a 50bp rate hike. France sells EUR 12.991bln vs Exp. EUR 11-13bln 2.40% 2029, 2.70% 2031, 3.25% 2032 and 2.00% 2032 OAT. Spain sells EUR 5.74bln vs Exp. EUR 5-6bln 0.70% 2032, 3.45% 2034 and 3.40% 2036 Bono. US Treasury Holdings (July, USD): Japan 1.104tln (prev. 1.117tln), China 618bln (prev. 633bln), UK 998bln (prev. 940bln). COMMODITIES WTI and Brent futures are softer intraday but off worst levels, with traders finding little to trade on this morning. Earlier in the session, gradual downside was seen in crude futures despite the lack of an obvious driver. Some attention may be on reports in Axios, which suggested that Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders in New York next Tuesday, to discuss the next steps with Iran. The crude complex will likely continue to move on geopolitical developments amid direct influence on the supply side of the equation. WTI Oct resides in a USD 100.39-102.47/bbl, and Brent Nov trades in a USD 103.62-106.02/bbl range. Dutch TTF tilts slightly firmer but remains under EUR 80/MWh at the time of writing, after finding support just above EUR 76/MWh this morning. Metals are firmer as oil prices ease alongside the post-FOMC dollar, with spot gold briefly back above its 100 DMA (USD 4,323/oz) after printing a USD 4,235-4,367/oz range yesterday, and with today’s parameter within that range, between USD 4,257-4,335/oz. Spot silver similarly attempts to recoup yesterday’s losses but remains tucked within yesterday’s USD 62.31-64.93/oz range. Base metals are mostly firmer, with 3M LME copper towards the top of a USD 14,128.38-14,338.00/t range. Kazakhstan expects oil production to reach 96mln tonnes in 2028 and 99mln tonnes in 2029, according to IFX. Azerbaijan's oil production fell 8.3% Y/Y to 2.2mln tonnes in August, according to IFX. TRADE/TARIFFS US President Trump said the US may impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act. Trump separately commented that they are very close to a deal with Mexico and we don't need anything Europe has, while he questioned why should the US carry Canada, Mexico and Europe. US-Mexico trade talks were pushed back one week, according to the WSJ. China's MOFCOM said Chinese and US trade teams are maintaining close contact on negotiations over mutual tariff reductions covering USD 30bln and will publish updates when appropriate. On EU trade, China is concerned about the "Europe First" clause and urged the EU to comply with WTO rules, maintain open markets and amend discriminatory provisions affecting third-country companies. China's MOFCOM Minister Wang held a video call with EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic to talk on China-EU economic and trade issues. China's chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with a business delegation to discuss issues including China-US economic and trade. Japan and the US are reportedly discussing the construction of a semiconductor factory as part of the USD 550bln US investment package agreed during tariff negotiations, Nikkei reported. The EU has reportedly asked China to voluntarily restrict exports of hybrid cars as part of a deal to prevent a trade war, threatening of higher tariffs if they fail to do so, according to the FT. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES European Commission adopts the EU KIDS Act, banning social media platforms from accessing children under 13 and setting an EU-wide minimum age of 15 for minors to open their own accounts. UK government’s EU reset summit could be delayed again unless the EU agrees to include “Made in Europe” legislation on the agenda, according to The Guardian's Elgot citing sources. Germany's VDMA expects 2026 production to decline by 2% in real terms, compared with its previous forecast for no growth. Swiss SECO forecasts: Raises 2026 GDP to 1.7% (June forecast: 0.9%), 2027 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.6%. 2026 and 2027 CPI forecast unchanged at 0.6%. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP European HICP Final (Aug YY) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%). European HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%). European Core HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.5%). CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Makhlouf, speaking on Bloomberg TV, said he is not seeing signs of second round effects but the outlook is uncertain. He added that every meeting is a live meeting and that inflation risks tilted to the upside. HKMA raised its base rate by 25bps to 4.25%, as expected, while Chief Executive Eddie Yue commented that the HKD may gradually ease after carry trade activity. Brazilian Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 25bps to 13.75%, as expected and with the decision unanimous, while it will continue to monitor developments in this scenario in order to keep monetary policy adequately restrictive to ensure convergence to the inflation target. BCB also stated that the scenario requires serenity and cautiousness in the conduct of monetary policy. NOTABLE US HEADLINES US President Trump posted that interest rates in the US should be 1% or less and urged to "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!" US President Trump said Fed Chair Warsh has a tough board and that he still has confidence in Warsh, while he stated that interest rates are too high and not appropriate. Trump said they should be paying the lowest interest rates in the world and noted that inflation is too high. Furthermore, Trump stated he told Warsh to do what he wants and that he wants Warsh to be independent. US Senators have reportedly secured an antitrust exemption for AI companies in the defence policy legislation before negotiations over the measure were delayed, according to Semafor. BofA Institute (w/e Sep 12) Total Card Spending +5.8% Y/Y (prev. +7.8%). Says K-shaped spending looks increasingly like a stale narrative. GEOPOLITICS MIDDLE EAST US President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war. Trump separately commented that the Iran war will end soon because Iran cannot go on and it is going to be a really good conclusion. US President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss next steps in the war with Iran, according to Axios IRGC Spokesperson said "If the US attacks again, it will face a more decisive, broader, and stronger response", Mehr News reported. US, Israel and Arab military chiefs held secret talks in Germany, while it was noted that increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab was seen impacting energy, according to Nour News. A Saudi source suggested that it would not normalise ties with Israel, even if they would help the Saudis against the Houthis, Times of Israel reported. Yemeni government forces are battling Houthis in strategic Kahbub mountains, near Bab al-Mandeb, according to Al Jazeera. RUSSIA-UKRAINE US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices. The US House voted to impose sanctions and tariffs over Russia's conflict with Ukraine. Russia's Kremlin said the implementation of new sanctions by the US will make it harder to find a peace deal on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces hit Russia's Yaroslavl oil refinery overnight while adding that Russians fired on energy in the Sumy and Odessa regions. Russia has reportedly damaged a rail bridge in Odessa, which would significantly limit Ukraine's ability to transport grain to its Danube river ports, reports suggest. OTHER North Korean Vice Defence Minister said the US arms buildup justifies North Korea's nuclear force building, and that they will continue expanding the defensive nuclear deterrent. CRYPTO Bitcoin has steadily climbed throughout the European morning and resides at the upper end of its USD 76k-76.70k range. APAC TRADE APAC stocks traded mixed as the region partially weathered the hawkish reaction triggered by the FOMC meeting, where the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, as expected, in a unanimous decision and the dot plots pencilled in another rate hike this year. ASX 200 was kept afloat as outperformance in financials, healthcare and real estate offset the losses in the commodity-related sectors, but with upside capped amid a lack of bullish drivers. Nikkei 225 began with firm gains following a pullback in energy prices, although it has gradually faded the majority of the opening advances as participants also brace for a widely anticipated BoJ rate hike when the central bank concludes its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow. KOSPI gradually climbed amid tech resilience and with South Korea's Finance Minister vowing to deploy market stabilising measures if required. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong after the HKMA raised rates for the first time since 2023 in lock-step with the Fed, while the downside in the mainland is cushioned following the PBoC's increased liquidity efforts. NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES Japanese PM Takaichi said they cannot maintain fiscal sustainability without economic growth, adding that they will accelerate policy to achieve strong growth under proactive fiscal policy. Takaichi said she decided to retain ministers in charge of key policies such as economic and fiscal policy, growth strategy and areas key to diplomatic relations with foreign governments. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will review budget requests and control debt issuance at a level that can gain market credibility, while she added they have stated their determination to address excessive volatility when they launched Japan-US joint intervention. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will continue close talks with the US Treasury to support orderly foreign exchange markets. Japan's GPIF has reportedly requested alternative investment strategy expertise from South Korea's NPS, according to Maeil. NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP New Zealand GDP Growth Rate (Q2 YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 1.7%). New Zealand GDP Growth Rate (Q2 QQ) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.9%).