Newsquawk European Market Wrap - 24th August 2026

European bourses were mostly lower throughout the European morning; US equities have kicked off the week on the backfoot. Crude futures came off earlier lows, Bonds pulled back from earlier highs, DXY ultimately posted mild gains. Focus remains on US-Iran tensions ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s update (full primer available on the Newsquawk feed). EQUITIES European bourses were mostly lower throughout the European morning, amidst the tentative risk tone. Regional newsflow was ultimately lacking today, and this was reflected in the broadly sideways price action this morning. European sectors were mixed. Basic Resources took the top of the pile, buoyed by gains in underlying metals prices (gold & silver). Travel & Leisure took second spot, whilst Chemicals completed the top three. To the downside, Energy bottomed the pile – pressured by the losses in the oil complex. Also of note for the sector, Shell (-0.5%) has reportedly drawn interest in its USD 8bln US chemicals assets business. US equities have kicked off the week on the backfoot, following the theme seen across Asia and Europe. Note that a fairly hefty bout of pressure was seen across indices at the US cash open. The NQ is the slight underperformer this morning, following heavy tech losses in the likes of Kioxia (-6.2%), Samsung (-8.7%) and SK Hynix (-3.4%). In the US, but sticking with tech, NVIDIA (+0.5%) has reportedly notified customers of price increases of more than 15% on AI servers. This comes ahead of its much-anticipated earnings on Wednesday. Elsewhere, Alibaba (-1.5%) moves lower after announcing a USD 10.2bln placement. FX USD was firmer against most peers throughout the session (ex GBP) with moves vs CAD most pronounced after trade updates. DXY broke out of 98.90 resistance to reach a peak just above 99.00 where its strength lost steam, now set to hand over to NY just below that mark; the next level above is the 200DMA @ 99.17. A lot of focus was on USD debasement theme after alternative assets BTC and Gold outperformed last week, the market today clawed back some of these losses with DXY edging higher and BTC off Friday's highs, however gold is firmer (+1.5%), potentially signalling a haven bid with global equities mostly weaker. In terms of developments over the weekend, Bessent wrote a hawkish FT piece, while Iran returned the language noting "not a single drop of oil" would leave the Persian Gulf. On that note, we expect Bessent to explain the latest sanctions in a presser this evening; updates today suggested it will broaden the scope of secondary sanctions on nations/entities doing business with Iran. Oil was flat to modestly weaker throughout the session. A busy week ahead sees PCE, GDP, and Nvidia earnings hit Wednesday; Jackson Hole and US supply data land Thursday. Friday brings the NFP Annual Revision Prelim and remarks from Fed Chair Warsh. While we do not have a specific time yet, Bessent could also announce “increased focus on fiscal consolidation”; recent updates via CNBC say Bessent could tap near USD 1tln treasury general account to fund bond buybacks; though there is continued scepticism regarding this, with analysts noting it would only be able to tap into c. USD 100bln of this account. CAD was the clear G10 underperformer after the unexpected breakdown of trade negotiations between the US and Canada, with the latter imposing dollar-for-dollar 50% tariffs on US goods. To remind, the updates we had on Friday said that their respective trade officials would meet in Washington to finalise the deal. Trump recently posted “On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%”, a remark which sparked very modest and fleeting pressure in the Loonie. USD/CAD initially looked to return to the 200DMA, which it fell beneath on Wednesday, though now is set to handover to NY off worst levels around 1.3825 after some Buck weakness emerged. MUFG said the CAD sell-off does not have legs, noting it targets just 5% of Canada’s exports, while Scotiabank expects uncertainty will keep the Loonie on the backfoot. Action elsewhere was quiet, Antipodeans were lower amid the risk tone, AUD/NZD +0.1%, supported at 1.20, EUR/USD was flat despite TTF surging above EUR 69/MWh, GBP attracted some carry demand with Cable around 1.3650, +0.1% on the day. FIXED A firmer start for fixed income has given way to slightly mixed performance. Though overall, the narrative of waiting for US Treasury Secretary Bessent at 19:00BST remains the primary factor. USTs spend the morning at the upper-end of 108-08+ to 108-15 parameters, lifted back to the high on a CNBC report around the TGA being potentially used to fund bond buybacks, before then pulling back to gains of a handful of ticks, at the mid-point of the above range. EGBs were bid at first, alongside Gilts, with gains of around 10 ticks or so across the morning at the mid-point of the early morning range. Since then, we have seen some gradual pressure make itself known in the space, seemingly a function of energy benchmarks lifting off lows and particularly so for Dutch TTF, which is now firmer by over EUR 3/MWh on the day. This leaves Bunds just off a 123.67 base, with losses of c. 10 ticks. Gilts, as is often the case when energy is influencing, post slightly larger downside of around 20 ticks at an 86.00 base. US Treasury Secretary Bessent could tap near USD 1tln treasury general account to fund bond buybacks, according to sources cited by CNBC. The officials would not say how much, if any, of the TGA would be used or when such an announcement could be made. There was no implication it could be used beyond the purchase of off-the-run securities that were the focus of last week's announcement. But they were clear that it is considered to be available. Berlin mandates 10yr Euro benchmark. ESM to sell EUR-denominated 5-year, guidance seen MS+32bps. Caterpillar (CAT) files to sell EUR denominated 2yr FRN and 3yr noted. 2yr FRN guidance seen +55-60bps to 3m Euribor. 3yr noted seen MS +65bps. COMMODITIES Crude - WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remained softer but recovered from overnight lows as the session progressed. Focus remained on US-Iran tensions ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s update (full primer available on the Newsquawk feed), with Reuters sources suggesting the Treasury will broaden secondary sanctions to capture nations/entities conducting business across specified Iranian sectors. Trump subsequently said Iran is “completely collapsing”. WTI recovered from a USD 84.59/bbl low to around USD 85.60/bbl, having earlier notched a USD 86.57/bb high, while Brent rebounded from a USD 90.30/bbl low to around USD 91.59/bbl and briefly topped its earlier European high to reach USD 92.06/bbl. Natural Gas - Dutch TTF extended its upside as European storage replenishment ahead of winter continued to support the complex alongside supply woes from the Middle East. The front-month contract gradually rose to around a EUR 69.09/MWh high from a EUR 65.22/MWh low. Precious Metals - Precious metals were firmer despite the stronger Dollar (albeit off earlier highs), with gold extending its earlier upside amid softer yields and potentially some haven positioning ahead of the Bessent announcement. Spot gold surged to levels last seen mid-May, to a USD 4,678/oz high from a USD 4,594.74/oz low. Spot silver similarly strengthened, rising to a USD 69.92/oz high from USD 68.43/oz and after finding support near its 100 DMA at USD 68.42/oz. Base Metals - Base metals were firmer despite the stronger Dollar, with the complex remaining underpinned by hopes of Chinese stimulus following the recent run of disappointing Chinese data. COMEX copper recovered from a USD 6.54/lb low to around USD 6.63/lb, near session highs. 3M LME copper similarly held an upward bias, trading towards the top of a USD 14,141.60-14,288.00/t range. Ineos forecasts Forties crude production at 200k BPD in December (vs 194k BPD in November). Mantel Capture has raised USD 18mln in Series A extension funding for carbon capture, Axios reported citing the CEO. IEA Chief Birol said we are not discussing a second release of strategic oil reserves at this time; first release was in March for 400mln bbls (20%). TotalEnergies’ (TTE FP) CEO said the Co. will continue investing across all forms of energy to pursue what he called “energy abundance; crude oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz today “very quietly". Sinopec (600028 CH) executive said it is very likely that China oil demand peaked last year. An unusual fire alert was detected near Iraq’s Kirkuk oil field (450k BPD) with an intense thermal anomaly recorded 21 km away at 07:18 UTC. Norway said it will proceed with development of its Barents Sea oil and gas reserves, regardless of the EU's proposed Arctic drilling moratorium. NOTABLE HEADLINES France, Toluna-Harris poll: Le Pen would lead in Presidential run-off election. French Economy Minister Lescure said it is not easy to cut taxes on large companies. TRADE/TARIFFS USTR Greer said the US offered Canada a lot, but Canada wanted more, remarks via CNBC; the latest spat only affects only a very small part of trade between US and Canada. US is on a good trajectory and the fundamentals are good. Political drivers were a driver for Canada. Deficit with Canada does matter. US President Trump posted, re. Canada, "On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%", adds, if they build in the US there are 0 tariffs. CENTRAL BANKS ECB's Cipollone said that monetary policy needs to be well calibrated; inflation is far from adverse & severe scenarios. No signs pointing to a scenario of stagflation. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russia's Kremlin said Russia is taking measures to minimise the impact from Ukrainian attacks on Russian grain exports. US administration officials, including Witkoff and Kushner, are now no longer expected in Ukraine, Politico reported. Russia said its forces struck a tanker carrying fuel near Ukraine's Odessa. MIDDLE EAST US President Trump posted that Iran is completely collapsing. US Treasury is expected to announce it will broaden the scope of secondary sanctions on nations/entities doing business with Iran, according to Reuters sources. Any activity within some Iranian sectors will reportedly be subject to secondary sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the security of the Strait of Hormuz will be discussed during the Omani foreign minister’s visit, Al Arabiya reported. Adds, they would strike at any source of aggression. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said vessels violating Iran’s rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz could face fines, detention, or confiscation. Yemen’s armed forces launched several missiles toward Saudi Arabia, while a powerful explosion was heard at a headquarters of Saudi-linked militias in the southern Yemeni city of Aden, ISNA reported. The Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir left Islamabad for Tehran to meet with high-ranking officials of Iran, ISNA reported citing sources. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir arrives in Tehran to meet with Iranian officials, Al Jazeera reported. Pakistan's Army Chef Munir spoke with US President Trump ahead of his visit to Tehran, according to Pakistani sources. UKMTO has received a report of an incident 63NM west of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia; tanker was struck by an unknown projectile. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the Omani foreign minister’s visit to Tehran is not linked to the Pakistani army chief’s visit. NOTABLE NORTH AMERICAN NEWS USTR Greer, when asked about what US Treasury Secretary Bessent may say later, said US President Trump is comfortable with using all levers at his disposal, remarks via CNBC. NORTH AMERICAN DATA US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul) -0.08 (Prev. 0.06). Canadian Manufacturing Sales Prel (Jul MM) -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%).