[MARKET ANALYSIS] Brent briefly tops USD 100/bbl as Middle Eastern tensions remain heightened

Crude futures are on a firmer footing, with Brent Nov briefly topping USD 100/bbl this morning for the first time since late July. Newsflow has been on the lighter side, but supply worries compound following the US-Iran spat overnight, coupled with further hostilities between Saudi and Houthis (more below). Aside from that, not too much else is driving price action this morning. Both benchmarks are towards the upper end of intraday bands, WTI Oct in a USD 93.76-94.85/bbl (vs yesterday’s 90.87-94.73/bbl range) and Brent Nov within USD 98.80-100.19/bbl (vs yesterday’s 96.78-99.46/bbl range). Dutch TTF firms by almost 4% intraday and resides close to EUR 79/MWh after briefly topping the level this morning from a base under EUR 77/MWh, with winter heating demand also taking focus. Metals are mixed. Precious metals cheer a weaker Dollar irrespective of the firmer oil prices, with a weaker Buck allowing geopolitical risk premium to be baked in. Spot gold found support at its 100 DMA (USD 4,343/oz), with the bullion trading in a current USD 4,341-4,413/oz range, with yesterday’s peak at USD 4,443/oz. Spot silver found support near yesterday’s low around USD 65.50/oz, and resides not far from its 100 DMA (USD 67.15/oz) in a current USD 65.52-67.01/oz range. Base metals are mixed, with copper prices subdued following recent record highs on the LME, and with the mood cautious against the backdrop of higher energy prices and its impact on inflation and growth. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,596.50-14,725.03/t range. In geopolitics, US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers tied to the IRGC in response to repeated attempted missile attacks on US Navy warships, with US Secretary of State Rubio warning that Iran will lose tankers each time it targets American vessels. Iran retaliated with further missile strikes, including at least 20 missiles targeting bases in Jordan, although Jordan said 18 were intercepted and no casualties were reported, while the IRGC claimed attacks on US warships and commercial vessels and threatened further retaliation against US interests. Meanwhile, Iran said it remains committed to its MoU with Washington despite reportedly demanding new conditions for negotiations, while explosions were also reported in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan region and oil fields.