Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 22nd September 2026

Crude benchmarks have reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz.   Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate. Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines. A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from the US. SNAPSHOT STOCKS Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% DAX40 +0.6% Stoxx 600 +0.3% FTSE 100 +0.2% ES Dec'26 +0.1% RTY Dec'26 +0.5% NQ Dec'26 +0.2% YM Dec'26 +0.2% FX DXY -0.1% (100.32) EUR/USD U/C (1.1469) USD/JPY -0.4% (156.84) GBP/USD U/C (1.3373) BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 +8 ticks Bund Dec'26 +16 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.924% German 10yr Yield 3.441% ENERGY & METALS WTI Nov'26 -3.2% Brent Dec'26 -2.5% Spot Gold -0.2% LME Copper +0.7% CRYPTO Bitcoin -0.5% Ethereum -1.0% As of 11:15BST / 06:15EDT IRAN CONFLICT A Senior Iranian Official said that Tehran welcomes the revival of diplomacy if the US takes tangible steps, stating that the Iranian delegation is in the US and has full authority to revive diplomacy in the US, Reuters reported. The official added that details of an agreement to end hostilities with the US can be discussed in New York via mediators. Furthermore, the official said the proposal was delivered to the US via mediators on September 16th while reiterating the Kyodo report that Iran can reopen the Strait within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade. Iran has reportedly suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stop military operations related to Hormuz, Kyodo reported citing an Iranian official. The official added that the proposal called for renewed talks aimed at reaching a permanent end to hostilities between the two countries. Furthermore, the official went on to say that there is a possibility of moving toward an agreement, but the US must demonstrate "seriousness and commitment" if diplomacy is to advance. IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate but it will respond to any enemy strike with multiple strikes across different arenas and in various ways, Al Jazeera reported. To add, the IRGC said it will have no contact with the US as a military institution, even if Washington requests it and its assessments indicate the US and Israel are not prepared for a new war, but Iran is ready if they miscalculate. US President Trump said he had meetings regarding Iran and that Iran is not doing well. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said US President Trump cannot impose his power on Iran, adding that Iran will neither shut down nor surrender. Ghalibaf went on to say that missile technology is at a stage where Iran can "target anywhere it decides" and they will never yield in the conflict. Iran's Judiciary Spokesperson said Iran has full control over the Strait of Hormuz, SNN reported. Iran's Foreign Ministry said introducing Iran as a cause of fuel price hikes is merely a sign of the US administration's evasion of responsibility for consequences of military aggression against Iran. G7 issued a statement on the Middle East which noted the situation in Yemen poses an unacceptable threat to the stability and security in the region and to global energy security, while it condemned in the strongest terms the unacceptable continued strikes carried out by the Houthis in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia. It called on the Houthis to immediately cease all military actions, threats and attacks against civilian shipping, as well as called on Iran to end its arming of and support for the Houthis, which it noted violates UN Security Council resolutions. Furthermore, it stated that Iran's reprehensible actions constitute a dangerous pattern of escalation and risk further exacerbating the conflict. Israeli Defence Minister said they will bomb Iran for the 3rd time if necessary until the regime is overthrown, Al Arabiya reported. French President Macron said he had a constructive discussion with US President Trump on the Red Sea and Ukraine. UK PM Burnham agreed for the UK to provide Saudi Arabia with defensive air-to-air refuelling, with the support to begin in days and last for weeks. EU's Kallas said the EU naval mission in the Red Sea requires additional naval and air resources, while she added the EU would need more than 10 ships in the Red Sea. EUROPEAN TRADE EQUITIES European bourses were initially lower this morning, but then flicked into the green after a report in Kyodo suggested that Iran could open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, citing a source. This helped boost sentiment, with crude benchmarks falling to lows, hence weighing on yields. European sectors hold a positive bias. Retail took the top spot, joined closely by Media and Tech. To the downside resides Insurance and Telecoms. Key European movers include: Kingfisher (+8.2%) , raises its FY26/27 adj. PBT guidance; Smiths Group (+4.5%), FY26 revenue raises Y/Y and raises its dividend above estimates; Evonik (+3.3%), reports that BASF explored a potential deal with the Co. earlier in 2026; Bureau Veritas (+1.0%), raises its 2027-28 total revenue CAGR guidance; Ericsson (-3.5%), downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. US equity futures were initially following the downbeat mood seen across Europe, but are now mixed. The ES and NQ reside on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst the RTY posts incremental gains. Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow Click for the additional news FX Snapshot: The FX space has been exceptionally choppy this morning. Initially, G10s were mixed against the USD, but are now mostly lower, as the USD clambered higher as the session progressed. The Kiwi outperforms after hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Bremen. She noted that near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist. DXY is a touch lower this morning and holds within a 100.30 to 100.66 range. The bias was initially stronger for much of the European morning, before a report in Kyodo, citing an Iranian source, suggested that Iran had told the US admin that it will open the Strait within seven days, if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. This spurred immediate and sustained pressure in the crude complex, weighing on yields and therefore on the USD. Following this action, JPY was the largest beneficiary, flicking from red to green within a few minutes. USD/JPY fell from 157.62 to a session trough of 156.85 within a small timeframe – largely thanks to narrowing yield differentials. Some may view this move as a bit outsized, given that there is currently no progress to peace at this stage. However, it points out that the mood is a bit more constructive heading into the UN General Assembly, where the Iranian President is set to make an appearance. No sideline meetings are currently expected between the US and Iran, however, the US and Gulf leaders will meet. Any positive mood music following that meeting will no doubt put another bout of pressure on the USD. FIXED INCOME A bearish start for fixed income, amid initial crude strength and a modest reversal of some of Monday’s action. Gilts underperformed modestly in early-trade, given the unwelcome borrowing data for the UK vs both market and OBR consensus. However, this action, of circa. 30 ticks lower in Bunds, five in USTs and over 40 in Gilts gave way to a geopolitical/energy-induced move higher and into the green. After a Kyodo source outlined that Iran has suggested to the US that it would open Hormuz in one week if the US blockade is lifted, alongside a tone change from the IRGC on negotiating with the US if needed. This lifted USTs to a 106-09+ peak, firmer by just under 10 ticks on the day. Bunds and Gilts followed, to the upside of 23 ticks and just over 30 respectively. However, as the energy move pauses for breath and updates since the two above have, net, been more bullish for crude, this has unwound with fixed income now near-enough unchanged on the day. The day was always headlined by the UN General Assembly, but following the morning reporting, the speeches by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian tomorrow now draw even greater attention; for any rebuttal of the above, or signs of tangible progress between the sides. That aside, BTPs were disappointed by the 2025 deficit/GDP revision, which remained above the key 3.0% mark that determines the EU’s EDP system. As such, we now look to see if Italian Finance Minister Giorgetti moves forward with using the Escape Clause or not. For reference, the BTP-Bund 10yr spread remained steady at 90bps at the time. Germany sells EUR 3.735bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.21x (prev. 1.56x), average yield 3.28% (prev. 3.09%), retention 25.3% (prev. 22.16%). UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.07x (prev. 3.34x), average yield 4.843% (prev. 4.613%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps). COMMODITIES WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed earlier gains and are now sharply lower following a notable shift in tone from Iran, alongside a report from an Iranian source in Japan's Kyodo. First, the IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate; this contrasts with the usual escalatory tone of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Shortly after the IRGC headline, and adding to the diplomatic mood, Iran reportedly suggested to the US that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, reiterating Iran's conditions for Hormuz concessions. The Kyodo report was later corroborated by a Senior Iranian Source who noted that the Iranian delegation is in the US to revive diplomacy with the US. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia has reportedly restarted the East-West oil pipeline to resume crude oil exports from the Yanbu port. Following the above developments, Brent fell from USD 97.70/bbl before the headlines to a USD 93.84/bbl low, while WTI fell from USD 93.14/bbl to a USD 89.40/bbl low. Dutch TTF has followed the broader energy complex lower as the prospect of progress around Hormuz reduces some of the Middle East supply risk premium. The contract has fallen from a EUR 75.22/MWh high to around EUR 72/MWh. Precious metals have trimmed some of their earlier downside as energy prices and global yields fall following the more diplomatic Iranian headlines. Spot gold has recovered from a USD 4,292/oz low to above its 50 DMA (USD 4,316/oz), having earlier reached USD 4,376/oz. Spot silver similarly trades around USD 65.50/oz after falling to a USD 64.57/oz low from a USD 65.81/oz high. Base metals remain firmer, with copper supported by the broader positive global risk tone, while the sharp pullback in energy prices provides some relief to the inflation and growth outlook. COMEX copper trades around USD 6.66/lb, near the upper end of its session range. 3M LME copper trades towards the upper end of a USD 14,703.60-14,790.00/t range. Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West oil pipeline and prepares to resume crude oil exports from Yanbu port later on Tuesday, according to trade sources. Saudi's Aramco has reportedly told Asian refiners that they will be able to pick up oil from Yanbu soon, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Libya's NOC said an armed group closed valve 7 on the Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port, causing a sharp drop in output at the Sharara oilfield. It was later reported that the Sharara oil field production fell by more than half to about 127k bpd after an armed group shut the pipeline to the Zawiya export terminal. Russia's oil exports from Black Sea Novorossiysk Port reportedly surged to 650k bpd in September, +50% M/M, sources suggested. Indonesia's nickel hub will cut output as an El Niño-driven drought reduces production. Russia's Agriculture Ministry said its grain procurement planned for 2026-27 at 3mln tonnes, IFX reported. TRADE/TARIFFS Chinese President Xi's most urgent goal during the summit with US President Trump is extending the trade truce with the US, but he is also expected to discuss Taiwan, Iran and AI, according to FT. USTR will hold a hearing regarding the Section 301 investigation into Germany's pharmaceutical policies today. EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China between October 8th-9th for trade talks. Canada's Trade Minister said the country is making great headway in concluding a free trade agreement with India, while they will continue to have talks with the US. China's MOFCOM announced the adjustment to the "Catalogue for the Administration of Export of Precursor Chemicals to Specific Countries", stating that export permits will be required for the US, Mexico and Canada under new rules. China's MOFCOM said that its Commerce Minister met with the German Auto Industry Association President to discuss bilateral auto cooperation and China-EU trade. MOFCOM said that China is not the root cause of EU trade problems. NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES German Chancellor Merz’s woes cast doubt over the bloc's EUR 2tln budget deal, with his authority in Brussels hobbled by his party’s poor results in regional elections, according to FT. UK PM Burnham to call on EU Commission President von der Leyen to allow the UK to partake in the EU's Made in Europe industrial framework, according to the FT. NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) ex-Banks (Aug) 18.3B vs. Exp. 15.7B (Prev. 2.0B). UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Sep) -9 vs. Exp. -34 (Prev. -25). Italian ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP (2025) 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%). CENTRAL BANKS Fed's Collins (2028 voter) said the renewal of combat in the Iran war was a key reason she supported a rate hike last week and pencilled in another rate hike this year but expects rates on hold in 2027. Furthermore, Collins said she did not see the inflation progress she was hoping to see, and stated that geopolitical developments suggest that we could continue to see additional pressures push on the energy side, according to AP. ECB's Lane said the Eurozone economy should continue growing at a steady but moderate pace if the energy shock does not intensify, while he added that a second wave of energy price increases will push inflation higher before it falls towards target from mid-2027. RBNZ Governor Breman said near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist, while she noted the RBNZ remains focused on the inflation outlook ahead of the October policy decision. Breman also commented that the economic outlook remains subject to significant risks and that current data points to continued economic recovery, though progress remains uneven. RBA Governor Bullock said supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with and that policy needs to deal with second-round effects on inflation, while she stated that the current decline in house prices is consistent with past episodes and that unemployment at 4.5‑5% is likely to reduce inflation pressure. Furthermore, Bullock said she is not signalling anything on policy, and it is up to the board, as well as noted that inflation risks are materialising from the Middle East and excess demand at home. RBA's Hunter said she thinks there are several factors behind inflation being above target including the conflict in the Middle East and domestic capacity constraints. Taiwan's central bank is planning to meet with banks to ensure lending to companies. GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA-UKRAINE Russian Kremlin said they are finding alternative routes for their grain and that Ukraine is the reason for the export issues. Discussions with Turkey around the Black Sea have taken place. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio are set to meet on September 23rd, TASS reported. Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck an oil refinery in Ukraine’s Kremenchuk, TASS reported. Ukraine's Naftogaz said that the Russian attack caused critical damage, which makes it effectively impossible to restore it. Polish Army said it commenced military aviation operations in Polish airspace following a Russian aerial attack on Ukraine, although it later announced that military aviation operations in Polish airspace concluded and there was no violation of Polish airspace observed. OTHER The US will reopen a military base in southern Greenland and establish presence at a second site in eastern Greenland, according to sources. CRYPTO Bitcoin has rebounded from a trough of USD 85.06k to regain the USD 86k handle amid the upbeat reporting by Kyodo and positive commentary by the IRGC. APAC TRADE APAC stocks mostly gained following the advances on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed and notched a record close as Meta shares surged over 11% on strong adoption of its Muse AI agent and with AMD joining the USD 1tln market cap club, while markets in Japan were closed again for the holidays. ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains capped as the strength in tech, consumer discretionary and health care was partly offset by losses in utilities, energy and financials. KOSPI took its cue from the tech and communications outperformance stateside, while South Korea's Industry Ministry noted that the final announcement on the US investment plan will be made by President Trump, with the funds to be remitted within 45 days if requested by the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive as tech stocks led the advances in Hong Kong, although some property, energy and biopharmaceutical stocks lagged while participants also continue to await the Trump-Xi summit this week.