[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10s flat against the Buck into Warsh's Jackson Hole address; EUR and GBP digest political updates

G10s lack a bias ahead of the Warsh Jackson Hole speech with most currencies flat vs the USD. DXY ekes modest gains after surpassing the 200DMA of 99.16 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech. Performance across majors is lacklustre with most currencies weaker, albeit small in magnitude. Into the speech, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank says the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates - Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves. MUFG says the closest historical comparisons to today’s speech are “probably 2008 or 2016” given the level of uncertainty, which both garnered 0.7% move in EUR/USD - FX options price a 46pip move in EUR/USD today, lower than the historicals that MUFG refers to. While OATs saw some weakness at the open, EUR was steady throughout the French Presidential debate. Focus now shifts to Fitch’s rating on France this evening, seen unchanged, and the Socialist party which are set to unveil demands for France’s 2027 budget over the weekend. EUR/USD likely at the whim of the Buck into the highly anticipated Warsh speech, 200DMA c. 10 pips below will likely support the pair for the moment. GBP/USD is flat but off worst levels after finding support at 1.3580. A couple updates on the domestic political front. The FT reported UK Chancellor Healey will shelve defence spending targets when presenting the October budget, a move which could save as much as GBP 10bln/year, based on OBR forecasts. It was separately reported that there could be potential modifications to council taxes, though no GBP move was seen on this reporting. In EMFX, KRW continues to rally vs. the USD following the BoK meeting earlier this week which saw strong upward revisions to growth forecasts. ING writes there is “an outside risk to 1350” in USD/KRW, a level not seen since June 2025.