EUROPEAN OPEN: STMPA FP sees data centre revenue rising; DSY FP buys ArisGlobal for USD 1.8bln; BNP FP Q2 profit beat on equities; UCG IM raises profit view; NESN SW organic growth slightly tops expectations

EUROPEAN OPEN: European equities opened defensively, amid a heavy earnings slate both Stateside after hours and in European premarkets (see below for recap). APAC stocks were in the green, DXY mildly softened, 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day’s trough, and crude futures extended gains. Asian semiconductor stocks rose after Alphabet (GOOG) outlined up to USD 200bln of 2026 AI infrastructure spending, with analysts stating that its cloud growth and custom processor strategy supported optimism over continued demand benefiting Asian chipmakers. US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th straight night. Oil extended gains after Iran-backed Houthis said they attacked Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea. September Brent is trading up at around USD 96.50/bbl amid the intensifying concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Gold is little changed as the European day gets underway, holding near USD 4,130/oz; reports suggest dip-buying has offset inflation concerns from rising Middle East energy prices, with prices rising around 3% over the last two sessions. Ahead, the ECB is widely expected to hold rates today; money markets pricing a 16% probability of a hike, but ahead, are implying around 88% chance by September, and a rate rise is fully priced by October. Many analysts are expecting little forward guidance from President Lagarde at the press conference. Elsewhere, Canadian retail sales and US weekly claims data are due today, while the stateside earnings slate is packed, including: Intel (INTC), RTX (RTX), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Honeywell (HON), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), Dow Inc. (DOW), American Airlines (AAL), Mobileye (MBLY). STOCK SPECIFICS: COMMUNICATIONS: Alphabet (GOOG) shares fell almost 3% in extended trading after a sharply higher AI capex forecast and negative cash flow unsettled investors, overshadowing strong cloud revenue. TECH: Nokia (NOKIA FH) network infrastructure sales rose 12%, supported by strong demand from AI, cloud and data centre customers in the Americas; supply constraints are also prompting some clients to place longer-term orders, while mobile infrastructure sales increased 6% year on year. Dassault (DSY FP) confirmed its 2026 outlook after Q2 revenue rose 4% FXN, supported by subscription and cloud software growth; also agreed to acquire ArisGlobal for about USD 1.8bln, plus up to USD 200mln linked to AI revenue targets, to expand its life sciences and artificial intelligence capabilities. STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) raised its data centre revenue forecast again, and expects more than USD 1bln in 2026, and well above USD 2bln in 2027; the upgrade reflects continued strong semiconductor demand from the expansion of AI infrastructure. FINANCIALS: BNP Paribas (BNP FP) reported stronger-than-expected Q2 profit and higher revenue, driven by record equity and prime services income, and improved retail banking margins in France and Belgium; it reached its 13% CET1 target early; maintained 2026 and 2028 targets, despite higher provisions for geopolitical uncertainty. UniCredit (UCG IM) reported better than expected Q2 profit and revenue, and described Commerzbank (CBK GY) as an increasingly strategic opportunity with significant potential value; raised profit outlook to well above EUR 11bln this year, EUR 13bln in 2028, and EUR 15bln by 2030. MATERIALS: Anglo American’s (AAL LN) Q2 copper production was unchanged, while diamond and manganese output rose sharply; iron ore, steelmaking coal and nickel production declined; maintained 2026 production guidance. INDUSTRIALS: Thales (HO FP) reported Q2 revenue slightly below expectations, while first-half orders, sales and adj. EBIT all increased Y/Y; maintained FY26 guidance. EasyJet (EZJ LN) Q3 headline pre-tax profit fell sharply, although it expects 2026 capacity and holiday customers to grow; FY outcome remains dependent on late bookings and volatile fuel prices; execs added that improving consumer confidence was supporting summer demand. Daimler Truck (DTG GY) raised FY26 industrial revenue, adj. EBIT and unit sales guidance, based on the current USMCA framework; however, Daimler Buses lowered its sales forecast on weak LatAm/Mexico markets. CONSUMER: European new-car registrations +13% Y/Y in June, the strongest since October 2023, driven by a 51% surge in battery-electric vehicle sales; Chinese brands also gained market share. Tesla (TSLA) shares fell over 4% in extended trading after profits missed expectations, as discounting, weaker regulatory credit income, margin pressure and heavy AI and robotics spending outweighed record vehicle deliveries. Nestle (NESN SW) Q2 sales and organic growth slightly exceeded expectations, while H1 net income fell Y/Y; it announced a 50/50 JV with Platinum Equity, valuing Peranel at CHF 4.5bln, and is expected to generate cash proceeds of about CHF 2.8bln. Porsche (P911 GY) is reportedly considering cutting a further 5-6k jobs by 2035, according to Manager Magazin. ENERGY: TotalEnergies (TTE FP) Q2 adj. profit was broadly in line with expectations, while net income, cash flow and adj. EBITDA rose strongly despite lower hydrocarbon production; raised quarterly dividend +5.9%, and plans up to USD 1.5bln of buybacks in Q3; maintained its USD 15bln FY26 investment guidance. Repsol (REP SM) Q2 net income missed expectations, while adj. income exceeded forecasts; announced a share buyback of up to EUR 500mln. HEALTHCARE: Roche (ROP SW) H1 sales were slightly ahead of expectations, with pharmaceutical and diagnostics growth at constant exchange rates, led by Xolair and other key medicines; core EPS, operating profit and net income declined Y/Y,  largely reflecting the adverse impact of the stronger CHF. AstraZeneca’s (AZN LN) Etcamah, combined with a CDK4/6 inhibitor, has been approved in the EU as a first-line treatment for advanced ER-positive breast cancer. DAY AHEAD: DATA: In Europe, Eurozone flash consumer confidence for July is expected at -16.8 (prev. -17.7); UK CBI industrial trends orders (prev. -45) and business optimism (prev. -65) are also due. In North America, weekly US initial jobless claims (exp. 212K, prev. 208K), continuing claims (exp. 1,809K, prev. 1,805K), and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (exp. 0.14, prev. -0.10) are due. In Canada, May retail sales are seen rising 1.0% M/M (prev. 0.5%) and 3.5% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%). CENTRAL BANKS: ECB expected to hold all three of its key rates (preview below); ECB’s Lagarde (neutral) to speak following the policy decision. South Africa’s SARB expected to raise rates by 25bps to 7.25% (prev. 7.00%), and the CBRT is expected to hold at 37%. SUPPLY: US sells USD 21bln of 10yr TIPS; the Treasury will also announce sizes for next week’s 2yr, 5yr and 7yr supply, as well as a 2yr FRN (analysts see no changes). ENERGY: EIA weekly natgas storage data is expected show a build of 29BCF (prev. 41BCF). EARNINGS: Notable US corporates reporting today include: Intel (INTC), RTX (RTX), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Newmont (NEM), Comcast (CMCSA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Honeywell (HON), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), Dow Inc. (DOW), American Airlines (AAL), Mobileye (MBLY), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF). ECB (13:15BST/08:15EDT): The ECB is widely expected to hold rates today. Recent Eurozone data show headline and services inflation easing below prior readings and consensus forecasts, however, inflation remains above the ECB’s medium-term target, and the renewed US-Iran conflict has pushed energy prices higher, keeping upside risks alive. Money markets assign a 16% probability to a July hike, rising to around 88% for September, with a move fully priced by October. With no change expected this month, attention will fall on any signals regarding the outlook for the remainder of the year. That said, analysts at Berenberg and Goldman Sachs expect little forward guidance, and suggest that President Lagarde will not offer any explicit steer at the press conference. See full preview here.