Daily US Equity Opening News - CFTC seeks comment on AI compute futures; AAPL camera AirPods still scheduled for 2027; SSNLF said to plan over KRW 100tln shareholder returns; COTY falls on weak outlook; SPCX approached Cognition AI over potential acquisit

DAY AHEAD: DATA: In Europe, Eurozone Q2 labour cost index (prev. 3.2% Y/Y); UK CBI industrial trends orders (prev. -45). In North America, weekly US initial jobless claims (exp. 210K, prev. 209K) and continuing claims (exp. 1,790K, prev. 1,777K); Philly Fed manufacturing index (prev. 41.4); CB leading index (prev. -0.2% M/M); Canada PPI (exp. -0.4% M/M, prev. -1.4%; prev. 12.4% Y/Y). CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) will give an interview to Bloomberg. SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 10.5–12.5bln of 2029, 2031, 2032 and 2034 debt, as well as EUR 1–1.5bln of 2032, 2043 and 2047 OATeis. US sells USD 8bln of 30-year TIPS. ENERGY: WTI September 2026 futures expire; EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +36BCF). EARNINGS: Notable US corporates reporting today include: Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), Ross Stores (ROST). NEWS: GEOPOLITICS: US-Iran - President Trump threatened “tremendous economic consequences” on any country helping or doing business with Iran, describing the move as “economic D-Day” and the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country. The warning followed expiry of the 60-day ceasefire on Monday with no diplomatic resolution, and extends Operation Economic Fury launched in April. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, was not named but businesses there are the biggest purchasers of Iranian crude, reports note. Iranian official Rezaei said withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would be the best response to Trump’s escalation of economic warfare; Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi said persisting with failed policies would produce further failures and greater hostility from Iranians. US-Pakistan - Pakistan condemned US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor’s description of Jammu and Kashmir as an “important part of India”. Pakistan called the remarks “factually incorrect” and “irresponsible” and summoned US diplomat Natalie Baker in Islamabad to lodge a formal complaint. China-Taiwan - China has expanded law-enforcement operations east of Taiwan following closer Japan-Philippines maritime cooperation, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative said. The activity included sustained patrols, surveys and questioning nearly 200 commercial vessels. AMTI said Beijing may be seeking a semi-permanent presence and testing tactics relevant to a possible future quarantine or blockade. TRADE: US-China - China’s MOFCOM spokesperson said Beijing firmly opposes US Section 232 tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and components, calling the measures unilateral, protectionist and discriminatory against Chinese products. China urged the US to immediately withdraw the tariffs, arguing they overreach the concept of national security and disrupt global drone supply chains. US-Canada - Canada and the US are finalising a trade deal that could reduce US tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium and vehicles, BBC reports. US officials said the agreement would remove trade irritants and strengthen North American supply chains. Canada’s dairy supply-management system will remain intact, while provinces may restore sales of US alcohol. Reports suggest US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium could be cut to 25% from 50%, with vehicle tariffs potentially reduced from 25% to 15%. US-Mexico - Canada’s preliminary trade deal with the US caught Mexican officials and business leaders off guard, Bloomberg says, and has increased pressure on Mexico to secure comparable tariff relief. The draft would cut some US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 25% and autos to 15%. Mexico has sought similar concessions after months of negotiations with Washington over metals, vehicles and the USMCA. US-Norway - Norway is preparing for possible additional US tariffs after trade talks in Washington. State Secretary Kravik said further levies could arrive within months. Norway is seeking removal of a 12.5% additional tariff on most exports. Japan Trade Data - Japan’s exports rose to 23.2% Y/Y in July (exp. 20.1%; prev. 19.3%), the fastest pace since October 2022, driven by semiconductor components (which surged 49%), and passenger cars (up 21%). Imports rose 27.8% (exp. 25.1%; prev. 25.4%), widening the trade deficit to JPY 634.5bln (vs a revised 409.9bln in June). The proportion of oil imports from the US rose to 36% of total volume (vs just 7% in February), as Japan diversifies away from Middle Eastern supply. MACRO: FOMC Minutes Recap - FOMC July minutes showed most participants supported keeping rates unchanged, while several favoured a hike, reflecting the three hawkish dissenters, a few of whom judged that raising rates then would likely head off the need for further increases later. Most felt higher rates would probably be needed if inflation didn’t fall. Almost all members backed retaining the statement affirming the FOMC “will deliver price stability”, though no detail was given on dissenting views or reasoning. The Fed staff’s economic outlook was similar to June’s on inflation, but “a touch weaker” on growth. On meeting frequency, Chair Warsh suggested six meetings a year, roughly every two months, would let more data accumulate between decisions, but no decision was taken and the 2026 schedule stays unchanged. The Minutes have been overshadowed by more recent, dovish data, which has shifted money markets to favour a hold over a hike. The US-Iran war remains a key uncertainty. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that, as things stand, it’s unlikely other members will join the three hawks, and expects a majority to keep policy unchanged through Autumn and Winter as the labour market stays weak and domestic inflation keeps cooling. Fed Transparency - Four Democrat senators urged Fed Chair Warsh to disclose conversations with President Trump since taking office in May. They said transparency was necessary to demonstrate Fed independence. Trump has reportedly spoken with Warsh several times, but has not pressed him to take specific policy action. Treasury Buybacks - JPMorgan strategists warned that the US Treasury’s decision to at least double bond buybacks to curb long-term borrowing costs risks appearing to lack credibility without underlying fiscal consolidation. JPMorgan sees a funding gap of more than USD 3.5tln in coming fiscal years, cautioning that the impact on long-end yields is likely to be fleeting absent any deficit reduction. Bond ETFs - The Pimco 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF attracted a record USD 123mln of inflows on Tuesday, a day before the US Treasury unexpectedly increased long-dated debt buybacks, Bloomberg reports. Trading volume also hit a record. The ETF gained 3.2% on Wednesday as 30yr Treasury yields fell. US T-Bills - The US Treasury’s decision to at least double long-dated bond buybacks is complicating the T-bill issuance outlook, as bills are expected to finance the programme, Bloomberg says. The announcement came just two weeks after Treasury guided for buybacks to continue at the same size, undermining forward guidance. Wells Fargo estimates the change could raise the pace of buybacks to USD 32bln per quarter, requiring an additional USD 12bln in T-bill issuance through 5th November, and USD 16bln per quarter thereafter. US Debt Levels - US public debt surpassed USD 40tln for the first time, reaching USD 40.05tln, Bloomberg reports. Debt has risen by a third since January 2022, while FY26 interest costs reached USD 1.17tln (+15% Y/Y). Aussie Jobs - Australian employment fell 15.8K in July (exp. +15K), with full-time employment +16.3K, offset by a 32.2K drop in part-time employment. The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% (exp. 4.4%; prev. 4.4%), while the participation rate edged down to 66.9% (exp. 66.9%; prev. 67.0%). Westpac noted the rising trend in unemployment and underemployment suggests the labour market is moving towards spare capacity. TECH: AI Compute Futures - The CFTC is seeking public comment on futures contracts for AI computing power, with CME Group (CME), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Architect Financial Technologies among exchanges that have announced plans to launch such contracts pending regulatory approval. CFTC Chairman said a robust derivatives market for compute is essential for the US to win the AI race. The comment period runs for 60 days. Apple (AAPL) - Apple’s camera-equipped AirPods remain scheduled for 2027 after supply chain and software delays, Bloomberg reports. The earbuds will use low resolution sensors for Visual Intelligence, Siri and other AI tools rather than photography or video. A leaked software video had prompted speculation of an earlier launch. Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics plans shareholder returns exceeding KRW 100tln, mainly through cash dividends, using 50% of free cash flow, MoneyToday reports. The plan follows SK Hynix’s KRW 40tln share buyback programme. Samsung declined to comment, referring to earlier remarks that it would balance shareholder returns with reinvestment for future growth. SK Hynix (SKHY) - SK Hynix could deliver at least KRW 180tln in additional shareholder returns through 2027, on top of its announced KRW 40tln buyback, JPMorgan estimates. The bank cited SK Hynix’s pledge to return more than half of cumulative 2025-2027 free cash flow, vs a previous ceiling of 50%. OpenAI - OpenAI is testing a new feature called Private Safety Processing, which analyses risk patterns across multiple user interactions rather than single prompt response pairs. The enhancement aims to deter both malicious human actors and misaligned AI agents, while keeping customer content restricted from OpenAI to preserve privacy. BILL Holdings (BILL) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.84 (exp. 0.71), Q4 revenue USD 436.2mln (exp. 430.5mln). CEO said structural changes position the company to develop and deliver AI-native solutions for the “Fortune 5 million”; CFO said growth and margin expansion are not a trade-off, and that BILL enters FY27 on a path to meaningful GAAP profitability. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 0.96-1.00 (exp. 0.76), Q1 revenue between USD 432.5-442.5mln (exp. 443.3mln). Sees FY27 adj. EPS between 3.56-3.79 (exp. 3.38), and FY27 revenue between USD 1.81-1.86bln (exp. 1.85bln). CONSUMER DEFENSIVE: Coty (COTY) - Coty shares fell 4.3% in extended US trading after forecasting weaker than expected quarterly earnings, and withholding FY guidance amid its business overhaul, outweighing a stronger than expected revenue performance. Q4 adj. EPS -0.02 (exp. -0.01), Q4 revenue USD 1.27bln (exp. 1.2bln). LFL revenue -1%, including an estimated 1% sales headwind from the Middle East conflict. Interim CEO said Q4 showed early signs of stabilisation, with sales and profit ahead of targets and improved LFL trends, though sell-out performance remains below market levels in both divisions. He said FY27 will be a transition year as Coty strengthens its core business, progresses the Gucci exit by FY28, and completes its Consumer Beauty strategic review by the end of calendar year 26. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 0.11-0.13 (exp. 0.14), sees Q1 LFL revenue declining by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage and sees Q1 adj. EBITDA declining by a low-teens percentage Y/Y, representing a sequential improvement from H2 FY26. Coty withheld FY27 guidance. US Corn - Corn futures rose above USD 5/bushel for the first time in 18 months after US crop tour results showed weaker yields across key producing states, Bloomberg reports. The most active Chicago corn contract reached USD 5.005/bushel, while heat, flooding, weaker European output and disrupted Ukrainian exports added to global supply concerns. Ukraine Grain Exports - Russian attacks on Odesa ports have sharply disrupted Ukrainian grain exports, leaving farmers with unsold crops and worsening financial pressure, Bloomberg reports. Greater Odesa normally handles about 90% of grain shipments. Ukraine estimates wheat exports could fall to 8.3mln tonnes in 2026-27, while prolonged disruption could significantly reduce GDP and strain storage capacity. Pernod Ricard (PRNDY) - India’s food safety regulator inspected a Pernod Ricard factory and collected liquor samples as part of a broader investigation; a source reportedly said the company needs to improve hygiene standards. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Customer Data - The FTC issued an enforcement bulletin requiring companies to provide clear and conspicuous disclosure when using personal consumer data to set individualised prices, including specifying the type of data used, WSJ reports. The agency said it lacks authority to prohibit the practice, but will deploy enforcement resources against non-compliant firms. The move follows revelations that Instacart allowed retailers to vary prices for individual consumers, a practice it subsequently scrapped after customer pushback. Luxury Goods - Sales at China’s 25 biggest luxury labels fell more than 10% in July, as China’s campaign to tax offshore wealth dampened spending by wealthy consumers, Bloomberg reports. LVMH’s (MC FP) Louis Vuitton and Dior, Kering’s (KER FP) Gucci, Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga all recorded double-digit declines, while Hermes swung from gains to declines. The slump coincides with tighter controls on cross-border stock trading and demands for citizens to pay levies on offshore assets. Lululemon (LULU) - Lululemon Chief Communications Officer Bill Chandler will leave on 4th September, becoming the third senior executive departure ahead of incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill, who is due to start on 8th September. FINANCIALS: Perpetual Futures, Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) - Shares of Hyperliquid Strategies surged 30% and HYPE tokens also jumped higher after President Trump indicated the CFTC was working to bring decentralised exchange Hyperliquid into the US in a compliant fashion, CNBC reports. Options volume in Hyperliquid was nearly eight times the 30-day average, with call-buying activity noted in the hours before the announcement raising questions about prior knowledge, the report says. Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Miami International Holdings (MIAX) and CME Group (CME) each fell. BlackRock (BLK), Brookfield Corporation (BN) - BlackRock’s HPS and Brookfield’s Oaktree Capital Management took control of MBS Group through a debt-for-equity restructuring that wiped out up to USD 900mln of debt, Bloomberg reports. Lenders received USD 100mln of take-back debt and agreed to invest another USD 40mln in the Hollywood production services company. Morgan Stanley (MS) - Morgan Stanley is hiring Barclays (BCS) technology dealmaker Tim Luke as vice chairman in its technology investment banking group, focusing on semiconductors and hardware, Bloomberg reports. Luke previously worked at Lehman Brothers and Barclays, and advised on deals including Arm Holdings’ (ARM) USD 4.9bln IPO in 2023. MATERIALS: China Gold - The China Gold Association opposed the London Bullion Market Association’s suspension of Shandong Gold Smelting after US authorities added it and parent Shandong Gold Mining to a forced labour sanctions list, Bloomberg reports. It said the suspension lacked factual basis, and disrupted the global gold supply chain. INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX approached AI coding startup Cognition AI about a potential acquisition, though Cognition declined to engage, Bloomberg reports. Discussions are ongoing about a potential commercial arrangement, including Cognition using SpaceX’s computing capacity. Cognition, whose CEO stated the company is not for sale, was valued at USD 26bln in May and is in early talks for new funding at a valuation of at least USD 40bln. Nordson (NDSN) - Q3 EPS 3.25 (exp. 3.09), Q3 revenue USD 818mln (exp. 779.4mln). CEO said strong H1 momentum continued, with results above the high end of the company’s most recent earnings guidance, and record sales across all three segments, while maintaining margin performance. Strong free cash flow supported balance sheet improvement, shareholder returns and continued investment. Raises FY26 EPS view to between 11.80-12.00 (exp. 11.59; prev. saw 11.30-11.80), and sees FY26 revenue between USD 3.035-3.075bln (exp. 2.98bln; prev. saw 2.93-3.01bln). CK Hutchison (CKHUY) - CK Hutchison began international arbitration against Panama, seeking more than USD 1.5bln over the loss of concessions for the Balboa and Cristobal ports. CK alleges that Panama breached an investment protection treaty. Its Panama Ports unit separately seeks at least USD 2bln over the takeover. L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - L3Harris removed CEO Chris Kubasik after a board investigation found he violated its code of conduct, WSJ reports. Multiple women had previously raised concerns about his behaviour, including a sexual harassment complaint around 2023. Kubasik denies having a relationship with a subordinate, and surrendered about USD 67mln in unvested stock and severance. ENERGY: China-Iraq - Chinese refiners bought at least 8mln bbls of Iraqi Basrah crude for prompt delivery as exports through the Strait of Hormuz continued despite shipping risks, Bloomberg reports. Iraq has used discounts to encourage others to transport its crude. HEALTHCARE: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) - Aurinia and Teva settled US patent litigation over generic 7.9mg voclosporin capsules. Teva acknowledged Aurinia’s patents are valid, enforceable and would be infringed, and may launch its generic no earlier than 7th December 2036, subject to contingencies and FDA approval. Aurinia’s litigation continues against several other generic drugmakers.