Fed's Jefferson (voter) says current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume decline towards 2% as tariff effects and energy price pass through
Fed's Jefferson expects current policy to return inflation to 2% as tariff and energy shocks fade, despite Middle East tensions and labor risks shifting slightly to the downside.
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Says: In a scenario where inflation does not start cooling it could be appropriate to reconsider stance and ensure we deliver price stability. Current policy is well-positioned to respond based on incoming data, the evolving outlook and balance of risks. Firmly committed to returning inflation to the 2% target consistent with the dual mandates. Expect Middle East conflict to have muted effects on demand as the US is a net oil exporter and the economy is less oil-intensive. Mnitoring two significant developments: Middle East conflict and proliferation of AI. Current scenario exemplifies policy dilemma where dual mandate goals are in tension.
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