FedIMPORTANT

Fed's Kashkari (2026 voter) says inflation is too high; huge question mark about how long Hormuz Strait will be closed and that will have a big effect on inflation

News detail

Before Iran conflict had some confidence inflation was heading back down to 2%. Labour market moving sideways, "Lukewarm"; looks like it's hanging in there. Iran shock has upended inflation environment. Even if the Hormuz Strait reopens, it will be months before supply chains return to normal. Not surprised by headline inflation rise, what matters is how persistent strait closure is. Fed Chair has a lot of influence. Fed Chair will have to persuade other policy makers. Dead serious about getting inflation back down.

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