Market Analysis

[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-notes remain subdued following the pronounced steepening post-FOMC

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Global bond markets faced selling pressure as Fed Chair Warsh's lack of forward guidance steepened the Treasury curve, while oil volatility and BoJ policy uncertainty weighed on Bunds and JGBs.

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USTs: -12.5 ticksRemained subdued after the fluctuations and pronounced steepening seen in the aftermath of the FOMC, where the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, although the decision saw three dissenters—Logan, Hammack and Kashkari—who all preferred a 25bps rate hike. The statement itself generated a dovish market reaction, with front-end Treasury yields initially falling as participants unwound hawkish positioning built ahead of the meeting, with money markets having priced around a 33% probability of a hike. However, Fed Chair Warsh's press conference ultimately triggered a pronounced steepening of the Treasury curve, led by the long-end and longer-dated maturities sold off sharply, with the 30-year yield briefly rising above 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.Bunds: -32 ticksLingered at this previous day's trough after retreating throughout most of the prior day as oil climbed and amid supply, while participants await GDP data from across the bloc.JGBs: -31 ticksTracked downside in global counterparts and with demand also not helped ahead of a 2yr auction, while the BoJ also kick-starts its 2-day policy meeting.

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