Newsquawk Daily US Equity Opening News - PYPL drops after Advent/Stripe end pursuit; GAP surges after beat & raise

DAY AHEAD: CENTRAL BANKS: Fed Chair Warsh (neutral) will deliver a keynote address at Jackson Hole. There is a slew of central bank speakers on the docket at Jackson Hole today. DATA: In North America, US preliminary BLS annual benchmark revisions are due (prev. -911K). Michigan consumer sentiment final data for August (exp. 51.0, prev. 55.2), current conditions (exp. 51.8, prev. 54.8), expectations (exp. 50.6, prev. 55.4), 1yr inflation expectations (exp. 4.3%, prev. 4.2%) and 5yr inflation expectations (exp. 3.3%, prev. 3.3%); the Chicago PMI (prev. 57.6) is also due. ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 452, gas 127, total 588). CRA: Fitch reviews France (A+); S&P reviews Portugal (A+); Moody’s reviews Switzerland (Aaa); Morningstar DBRS reviews the Netherlands (AAA). OPTION EXPIRIES: Gold, Silver and Copper August 2026 futures; Brent October 2026 futures. WARSH AT JACKSON HOLE (15:00BST/10:00EDT): This year’s economic symposium at Jackson Hole has the title “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Fed Chair Warsh is due to deliver remarks on 28th August at 10:00EDT/15:00BST, which traders will use to infer the path for near-term Fed policy ahead of the 16th September policy meeting. Previous Fed chairs have used the forum to signal upcoming policy actions. However, Warsh has begun his term with a bias against issuing any forward guidance, and has made the case that such guidance can shackle officials to their earlier forecasts, and his approach of little guidance will allow markets to interpret the data themselves. The approach has led to volatility; his lack of details at the July post-meeting presser unsettled bond markets, prompting a slide in longer-dated maturities. Since the July meeting, expectations of Fed rate hikes have eased following a run of downside data surprises, including a large miss in nonfarm payrolls, cooling inflation metrics, a GDP miss, and soft retail sales. Warsh is likely to reiterate the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back to target. Still, some analysts have suggested that the market could again be left disappointed; Saxo Bank’s analysts say the title of the forum suggests that Warsh will deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing rather than the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates. Indeed, in July, Warsh told reporters that his remarks will aim to frame the ‘big picture questions’ rather than offer any clues about the near-term path, adding that his Fed is not constrained by market pricing. A recent Reuters poll showed most economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in September, and through the end of the year; market pricing has moved dovishly after the soft run of data; at the time of writing, markets price around 65% probability of a hold in September vs around 50/50 just a few weeks ago. HSBC said “the debate clearly is about the possibility of rate hikes,” adding that “we’ve gone through the July inflation numbers, and they were basically neutral. On the activity side, the very latest data do show some softening. That could push more FOMC policymakers into the wait-and see camp rather than in the immediate rate hike camp.” US BLS ANNUAL BENCHMARK REVISIONS (15:00BST/10:00EDT): The BLS publishes its prelim benchmark revisions for the CES survey, alongside Q1 QCEW data. The figure realigns sample-based payroll estimates to the March 2026 benchmark month. The data will have no immediate mechanical effect; official estimates aren’t updated until the final adjustment, which will be included in the February 2027 jobs report. Still, the release will be closely watched as a read on the health of the labour market, and follows a recent run of cooling jobs figures, where a total of 74K downward revisions were reported in the April-May jobs data. Any large revision could unsettle policymakers’ recent narrative on a resilient labour market. At the July FOMC, Fed Chair Warsh said the labour market was “solid” and “steady,” and that job gains have kept pace with the workforce and unemployment; he also framed the labour market as “more or less at equilibrium,” and suggested that the Fed’s near-term focus was on above-target inflation, rather than jobs risks. August’s FOMC minutes also noted that demand and supply were balanced in the jobs market, with unemployment expected to stay near current levels. Meanwhile, recent research from the Cleveland Fed notes that the latest benchmark move (-0.54%) sat only marginally outside the BLS’ normal -0.5% to +0.5% range, with no statistical evidence of a structural break since 1965. It also found past revisions carry some predictive value for future ones, which suggests that the release could help shape traders’ views ahead of the more comprehensive February update. In last year’s revisions, payrolls were revised down by -911k for 2025. TECH: Nvidia (NVDA) - Reportedly paused its AI Compute Partnership revenue-sharing programme less than two months after launching it, citing employee concerns about potential antitrust scrutiny and the extent of control the company sought over customers’ business practices, WSJ reports. Under the programme, Nvidia would receive 50% of cloud provider revenues above a base cost threshold in exchange for guaranteeing GPU capacity. Nvidia disclosed USD 36bln of commitments under the programme in its quarterly filing, though it said the initiative could be revamped or folded into another initiative in future. An Nvidia spokesperson responded to the report, stating that the new business model introduced in July that opens up compute access to fast-growing AI ecosystem is still in place. Anthropic - A US judge ruled the Trump administration must lift its ban on Anthropic technology for federal agencies, finding the supply chain risk designation inadequately justified, Bloomberg reports. The court said the action appeared retaliatory rather than based on an articulable sabotage risk. The Department of Defence can still lawfully transition to other AI providers. SoftBank (SFTBY) - Seeking a USD 10bln 2yr loan to help refinance debt used for its OpenAI investment, Bloomberg reports. Mizuho Bank is arranging the facility at about 275bps over SOFR. Proceeds may partly repay a USD 40bln bridge loan, while SoftBank is also considering USD 10bln-20bln of bonds. Samsung (SSNLF) - Developing an eight-layer HBM4E product tailored to Nvidia’s (NVDA) NVHBM specification, targeting 17-18Gbps, Seoul Economic Daily reported. The design lowers stack height versus 12- and 16-layer products while boosting speed. NVHBM may debut with Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra GPU. Marvell (MRVL) - Shares fell over 8% in extended trading, only narrowly beat expectations, gross margin guidance came in at the low end of consensus, and investors were disappointed that longer-term fiscal guidance was deferred. Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 0.94 (exp. 0.93), Revenue 2.739bln (exp. 2.71bln). Data Centre revenue +46% Y/Y as AI-related bookings remained exceptionally robust, and demand broadened across the portfolio, including Connectivity. Exec said revenue growth is expected to accelerate further through the remainder of FY27, with significant acceleration in the Custom business beginning in H2 FY27. Guidance: Q3 EPS 1.05-1.15 (exp. 1.08), Revenue 3.15bln +/- 5% (exp. 3.04bln), gross margin 57.5-58.5% (exp. 58.5%). Raised revenue outlook for both FY27 and FY28, and will give details on FY29 at its October investor day. Workday (WDAY) - Shares edged higher in extended trading after a Q2 beat. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.75 (exp. 2.61), Revenue 2.65bln (exp. 2.64bln). Subscription revenue +13.9% Y/Y to USD 2.471bln. AI drove more than 25% of new Annual Contract Value, and more than 5,500 customers were using at least one organic Workday agent. Authorises a USD 4.0bln share repurchase programme. Sees Q3 subscription revenue +12% Y/Y at USD 2.515bln, sees Q3 adj. operating margin at 30.0%. Raises FY27 subscription revenue view to between USD 9.94-9.95bln (prev. saw 9.925-9.95bln), and sees FY27 adj. operating margin of 31%. Backs FY27 capex view at USD 270mln. Targets FY28 subscription revenue growth of approximately 11%, and expects adj. operating margin to expand by at least two percentage points next year. Autodesk (ADSK) - Shares fell 3.5% in extended trading after its Q3 and FY outlooks were below expectations. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.30 (exp. 3.12), Revenue 2.05bln (exp. 2.01bln). Exec said Q2 execution remained strong and the sales reorganisation is progressing as expected, with higher FY27 billings and revenue growth expectations reflecting stronger underlying growth and the incremental contribution from MaintainX. Guidance: Q3 adj. EPS 3.04-3.09 (exp. 3.14), Revenue 2.125-2.140bln (exp. 2.08bln). FY27 adj. EPS 12.52-12.60 (exp. 12.60), Revenue 8.295-8.345bln (exp. 8.21bln). FY27 adj. margin guidance is unchanged, while free cash flow expectations were narrowed to reflect stronger underlying performance offset by MaintainX operating and financing costs and approximately USD 45mln of transaction expenses. Elastic (ESTC) Q1 2027 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.70 (exp. 0.58), Revenue USD 478mln (exp. 469.7mln). Subscription revenue +15% Y/Y to USD 449mln, current RPO +21% Y/Y to USD 1.153bln, customers with ACV above USD 100,000 rose to more than 1,800 (vs 1,550 Y/Y), and net expansion rate was approximately 111%. CEO noted momentum across Search & AI, Security and Observability and record sequential net additions in the greater-than-USD 100,000 ACV cohort. Guidance: Q2 adj. EPS 0.80-0.82 (exp. 0.80), Revenue 486-487mln (exp. 483.4mln), Adj. operating margin 19.0%. Raises FY27; adj. EPS 3.29-3.37 (exp. 3.24; prev. 3.21-3.29), Revenue 1.998-2.010bln (exp. 1.99bln; prev. 1.985-2.0bln). SentinelOne (S) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.07), Revenue 292mln (exp. 290mln). ARR +22% Y/Y to USD 1.218bln, customers with ARR of at least USD 100,000 +13% Y/Y to 1,715. Guidance: Q3 adj. EPS 0.08-0.09 (exp. 0.11), Revenue 309-311mln (exp. 309.5mln). FY27 adj. EPS 0.30-0.32 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 1.202-1.207bln (exp. 1.20bln). Lam Research (LRCX) - Raised its quarterly dividend +27% to USD 0.33/shr. Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm (QCOM) - Applied Materials appointed Qualcomm CFO and COO Akash Palkhiwala to its board. Palkhiwala was also appointed to Applied Materials’ audit committee. Parsons Corporation (PSN) - Awarded two NNSA Counter Nuclear Smuggling Systems Deployment task orders covering the Middle East Region 3 and Africa 2, supporting initiatives across 25 countries. COMMUNICATIONS: Alphabet (GOOG) - The FTC is investigating YouTube over whether it violated consumer protection laws by suspending user accounts in breach of its own content policies, with the probe in its final stages of preparing a potential lawsuit, Bloomberg reports. The inquiry focuses on whether users were deceived into signing up for the platform by believing certain content was permitted, only to have it removed or their accounts suspended. YouTube has not been accused of wrongdoing, and no enforcement action is guaranteed. Take-Two (TTWO), Netflix (NFLX) - Netflix’s 26-minute Grand Theft Auto VI preview drew heavy traffic and strong influencer engagement, Bloomberg reports. Some livestream reactions exceeded 1mln viewers, while IShowSpeed drew more than 1.7mln YouTube views. The game, released on 19th November, could generate up to USD 5.2bln of sales in its first week, according to NewZoo. CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Amazon (AMZN) - Signed long-term agreements to buy nearly 200MW of power from four Swedish wind farms developed by Eolus and OX2, Bloomberg reports. Once fully operational, Amazon will have more than 1GW of Swedish supply. Three farms are operational and Fagerasen is under construction, supporting expansion at data centres in Eskilstuna, Katrineholm and Vasteras. China Autos - Chinese carmakers’ share of European new-car sales exceeded 11% in July, driven by cheaper plug-in hybrids, Bloomberg reports. Toyota Motor (TM) - Plans to begin producing a next-gen EV in China in Autumn 2027, to be sold as a Lexus SUV, Nikkei reports. The vehicle will be produced through Toyota’s wholly-owned Shanghai Lexus operation, which focuses on developing advanced software-defined vehicle technology to incorporate Chinese AI capabilities for global application. Nokian Renkaat (NKRKY) - CEO said it is progressing ahead of plan in some areas as it targets higher sales and profitability; it has rebuilt after exiting Russia by opening a new tyre plant, overhauling suppliers, raising prices and shifting towards higher-value products. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) - Fell 3.2% in extended trading despite raising its FY earnings outlook. Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 6.55 (exp. 6.19), Revenue 3.04bln (exp. 2.98bln), Comp sales +3.8% Y/Y, with net sales +8.9% Y/Y, supported by comparable sales growth, the Space NK acquisition and 13 net new US stores; nearly half of sales came from exclusive brands and products. CEO said there was no notable change in consumer behaviour and noted continued demand for prestige products. Sees H2 EPS growth between 9-12%. Guidance: FY26 EPS 28.70-29.00 (exp. 28.77; prev. 28.36-28.80), raises FY26 revenue growth 6.7-7.2% (prev. 6%-7%), raises FY26 comparable sales growth to 3.2-3.7% (prev. 2.5%-3.5%). Maintains FY26 CapEx view 400-450mln. Gap (GAP): - Rose 13% in extended trading after a quarterly beat, and raised FY profit and margin outlook, supported by stronger gross margins and continued momentum at the brand. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.48), Revenue 3.65bln (exp. 3.69bln). Comparable sales -1% Y/Y, while adj. gross margin rose 20bps Y/Y to 41.4%; reported gross margin was 52.8%, including an 11.4ppt benefit from expected IEEPA tariff recoveries. Gap received USD 95mln of tariff refunds, plus USD 5mln of related interest income in Q2, and recorded a USD 417mln cost-of-goods-sold adjustment tied to the recovery. CEO said brand comparable sales remained double-digits, while Old Navy performance requires improvement. Michael Francis was named President and CEO of Old Navy effective 2nd November. Sees Q3 revenue growth between 1.5-2.5% Y/Y, and Q3 gross margin +25-75bps Y/Y. Raises FY26 adj. EPS view to 2.35-2.45 (exp. 2.34; prev. 2.30-2.40), narrows FY26 net sales growth to 1.0-1.5% Y/Y (prev. 1-2%), and sees FY26 adj. operating margin 7.4-7.6% (prev. 7.3%-7.5%). FINANCIALS: PayPal (PYPL) - Shares fell over 13% in afterhours trading following news that Advent and Stripe have abandoned their pursuit of PayPal after previously offering more than USD 50bln. The consortium could return if circumstances change. Visa (V), Anthropic - Visa developed a harness in April that significantly reduces the cost and time required for Anthropic’s Mythos AI to identify and fix cybersecurity vulnerabilities in codebases, The Information reports. Affirm Holdings (AFRM) - Rose over 11% in extended trading after revenue and transaction volumes beat expectations, operating leverage improved and its outlook pointed to continued strong growth, supported by resilient consumer credit and merchant expansion. Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 4.62, Revenue 1.166bln (exp. 1.106bln). GMV +36% Y/Y to USD 14.1bln, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of GMV growth above 30%; GAAP operating margin increased to 12.6%. Exec said consumer credit performance remained stable and that growth continues to be supported by strong adoption among consumers and merchants. Sees Q1 GMV 13.7-14.0bln, and Q1 revenue 1.19-1.22bln (exp. 1.16bln). Sees FY27 GMV above USD 64bln, and FY27 revenue at 8.49% of GMV, similar to FY26. IREN Limited (IREN) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EBITDA 19.2mln, Revenue 137.2mln (exp. 135.6mln). Commentary: Exec said accelerating AI consumption is driving compute demand beyond available infrastructure supply, reinforcing IREN’s strategy of building physical infrastructure to support large-scale digital and AI workloads. Banca Generali (BGM), Monte Paschi (BMPSY) - Banca Generali said it is willing to evaluate Monte Paschi’s unsolicited EUR 8.72bln offer, which values the bank at EUR 8.72bln and represents a 10% premium to its share price at the time of the bid. Banco BPM is also subject to an MPS (BMPSY) bid valuing it at more than EUR 25bln, though has said the offer lacked a shareholder premium in an initial assessment. INDUSTRIALS: SpaceX (SPCX) - Elon Musk said his best estimate for SpaceX reaching approximately USD 3.5tln in annual revenue is around 2033. His remarks came following a note from Morgan Stanley, whose 2040 model assumption is for the same figure. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating with a USD 300 price target, noting SpaceX’s USD 100bln Starbase Louisiana plan implies potentially more aggressive launch cadence than even its long-term estimates. GE Vernova (GEV) - Appointed Rivian Automotive (RIVN) CFO Claire McDonough as CFO effective 1st January, succeeding Kenneth Parks, who will retire on 2nd April. McDonough joins GE Vernova as strategic adviser on 1st November. Parks will serve as strategic adviser from 1st January until his retirement. RTX (RTX) - Awarded a contract modification worth up to USD 240.75mln to mature the F135 engine, address operational issues, improve readiness and support the engine core upgrade for F-35 programmes. JetBlue (JBLU) - Said board members Jesse Lynn and Steven Miller are departing immediately under its 2024 agreement with Icahn Enterprises (IEP), which requires minimum share ownership to maintain board representation. Following their departures, JetBlue’s board will have 11 members, including 10 independent directors. UK Defence Names - Chancellor Healey will drop his target of UK defence spending reaching 3% of GDP by 2030 in October’s Budget, according to the FT; the Budget will instead address a near GBP 5bln defence equipment funding gap, about GBP 1.2bln annually, while larger spending increases will be deferred to next year’s Treasury spending review. Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Enters a USD 2.25bln 364-day unsecured revolver and extends a USD 3bln revolver to August 24th 2031 ENERGY: Gulf Exports - Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15-16mln BPD, around two-thirds of pre-war levels. Hormuz transits are estimated near 8-10mln BPD. It also said that increased dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers could limit crude price upside even if Middle East disruptions persist. Venezuela, OPEC - Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC as it deepens oil-sector ties with the US, Bloomberg reports. Discussions with US officials have included a possible 100-year lease on several Venezuelan oil fields. No final decision has been made. Venezuela was producing 1.16mln BPD in July, while its potential exit could further weaken OPEC’s cohesion and influence, the report notes. US Biofuels - The Trump administration is considering roughly doubling small refinery biofuel exemptions from 990mln to as many as 1.8bln credits, to help lower fuel prices during the Iran war ahead of November midterm elections, Reuters reports citing sources. To offset damage to the Farm Belt, officials discussed increasing 2027 biofuel quotas by approximately 500mln gallons. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject the expansion, warning it would decimate demand for corn and soybean oil; Republican Senator Ernst called the plan a “handout to Big Oil.” MATERIALS: Element Solutions (ESI), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) - Element Solutions and Solstice Advanced Materials mutually terminated their merger agreement following shareholder feedback and discussions between the companies. Both boards concluded the companies would better serve shareholders as standalone businesses. Neither party will owe termination payments. Element Solutions said its business momentum remains in line with guidance and it will continue its existing strategy. HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYRY) - The 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed a challenge by plaintiffs opposing Bayer’s attempt to resolve Roundup litigation through a USD 7.25bln state court class action settlement. Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX) - Pfizer and BioNTech received FDA approval for their 2026-2027 COMIRNATY XFG COVID-19 vaccine for adults aged 65+ and high-risk individuals aged 5-64. The XFG-adapted formula generated strong immune responses against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, with FDA guidance identifying XFG as the preferred US vaccine composition from autumn 2026. Gilead (GILD) - FDA approved Bixlenvo, a once-daily single-tablet HIV regimen for virologically suppressed adults. The approval is based on Phase 3 ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 trials, where Bixlenvo maintained virologic suppression through Week 48 and was generally well tolerated. The bictegravir-lenacapavir combination is not approved outside the US. Moderna (MRNA) - FDA approved updated 2026-2027 formulas for Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE containing the JN.1-lineage XFG subvariant of SARS-CoV-2. Spikevax is approved for high-risk individuals aged six months-64 and all adults aged 65+, while mNEXSPIKE is approved for high-risk individuals aged 12-64 and all adults aged 65+. Qiagen (QGEN) - Qiagen commercially launched QIAsymphony Connect, an IVD-compliant automated clinical nucleic acid extraction platform supporting liquid biopsy, oncology and infectious disease diagnostics. The platform builds on more than 3,300 cumulative QIAsymphony placements worldwide. Qiagen has completed FDA listing in the US and EUDAMED listing in Europe. Eli Lilly (LLY) - FDA approves Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes. CONSUMER STAPLES: Tyson Foods (TSN), JBS (JBS) - US President Trump says he is authorising legal documents to allow American farmers and ranchers to process their own food, aiming to reduce their dependence on the four major meat processors. GEOPOLITICS: US-Iran - Trump administration has told mediators it has no interest in returning to the June MoU with Iran, leaving diplomats without a clear framework for restarting talks, WSJ reports. Iran’s IRGC has insisted the strait will not reopen unless the US returns to the June agreement, while Washington has settled on an economic pressure strategy and declared there are no talks scheduled. Mediators including Pakistan, Oman and Qatar have all made recent diplomatic approaches with limited progress. Taiwan, China-Japan - China told visiting Japanese lawmakers that history and Taiwan are central to bilateral tensions, and urged Tokyo to take concrete action, Bloomberg reports. Senior diplomat Lu Kang called on Japan to follow the One China principle. Relations have worsened since PM Takaichi suggested Japan could deploy its military if Beijing invaded Taiwan. TRADE: US-Canada - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick blamed Canada PM Carney for the collapse of trade talks, saying last-minute demands over truck tariffs derailed an emerging deal; Canada disputes that account. MACRO: Tokyo CPI - Tokyo core inflation ex-fresh food rose 1.8% Y/Y in August (vs 1.7% in July), supporting expectations for a near-term BoJ rate hike. Core-core inflation was 2.0%, overall CPI 1.9%.