Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News - 11th September 2026

US stocks were lower as surging oil prices dictated price action across markets, which saw Treasury yields soar, the dollar strengthened, and weighed on spot gold. Highlighting the move in yields, the 30yr hit 5.366%, the highest since 2007, while the 10yr topped out at 4.954%, a peak since November 2023. Focus resided around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and saw the crude complex see gains of c. USD 7/bbl as Iranian media reported that the Houthis are nearing complete control of the strategic waterway, followed by reports of control over Zaqar and Mayun islands and the Al-Omari military base, as well as Al Mukha city. In terms of the data, US PPI was a mixed report and garnered limited reaction, as traders await the pivotal CPI metrics on Friday, which will likely dictate what the Federal Reserve do in the September confab. USD was firmer as it tracked US yields and oil higher, with new YTD highs in all durations of notes/bonds providing strong support for the dollar as oil prices dominated price action across assets, while the Houthis' expansion in Yemen and the Red Sea leaves it posing a greater threat towards Saudi vessels in the key waterway. Elsewhere, a mixed PPI places greater significance on Friday's CPI report to dictate the Fed decision in September, while Initial and Continuing Claims were little changed W/W, signalling a continuation of the low fire/hire labour market. Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI & BSI Manufacturing, Malaysian Unemployment, Supply from Australia. SNAPSHOT STOCKS S&P 500 -0.6% Nasdaq Comp. -0.7% DJIA -0.6% Russell 2000 -1.0% ES Sep'26 -0.6% RTY Sep'26 -1.1% NQ Sep'26 -1.0% YM Sep'26 -0.6% FX DXY +0.3% (99.08) EUR/USD -0.2% USD/JPY +0.5% GBP/USD -0.3% BONDS US T-Note Dec'26 -27 ticks 10yr Bund Sep'26 -96 ticks US 10yr Yield 4.96% German 10yr Yield 3.50% ENERGY & METALS WTI Oct'26 +8.2% Brent Nov'26 +7.9% Spot Gold -1.9% LME Copper -4.0% CRYPTO Bitcoin -1.4% Ethereum -0.4% As of 21:50BST/16:50EDT LOOKING AHEAD Highlights include Japanese PPI & BSI Manufacturing, Malaysian Unemployment, Supply from Australia. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead. IRAN CONFLICT US CENTCOM said forces have redirected 96 commercial vessels to ensure total compliance, while more than 50 vessels supporting humanitarian aid have been allowed to pass. US senior official told Israel's Channel 13 that Iran is planning a "major attack" involving Israel due to the pressure it is under. The official estimated that the US economic and naval blockade of Iran, which is causing significant damage to the regime's economy, will lead Tehran to launch a major military operation by the midterm elections in November, which would also include Israel. Furthermore, the official stated that Iranians are considering "a significant escalation" and will not be satisfied with only hitting the Gulf states as they have done in recent weeks. US imposed new sanctions on networks aiding Iran's proxies in the Middle East. Some media sources reported a security incident in the Strait of Hormuz, while Al Araby reported that three explosions were heard in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC Navy said it hit an enemy unmanned vessel (submarine) at the entrance to the strategic Strait of Hormuz and thwarted its aggressive mission, while the IRGC Navy firmly declared "the Strait of Hormuz is closed and under their control and intelligence, as well as warned that any hostile presence in this strategic Strait will be targeted. Iran is reportedly producing ballistic missiles again, according to the WSJ. Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, according to officials from the US and Middle East familiar with the matter. Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take "special measures" in response to the IAEA's resolution and may consider action. Iran ordered the temporary suspension of a 10% freight charge on foreign vessels carrying energy products to or from Iran, according to Fars. Iran and Saudi Foreign Ministers held a phone call, while they discussed the escalation of tensions and increasing insecurity in the region, as well as emphasised the need for continued cooperation and diplomatic efforts. IDF blew up Hezbollah tunnels beneath the Ali Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon, according to Times of Israel's Fabian. Israel's Defence Minister Katz warned that an attack on Israel will be met with a powerful response, including damage to energy facilities. More than 100 US military advisers are on the ground in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting support to the Kingdom in its military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to CNN citing sources. Houthis launched a missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia, according to IRNA. Initial reports indicated the arrival of Yemeni Houthis on the strategic island of Mayun in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, according to Iranian-backed SNN citing sources. Yemeni Houthis also established complete control over the Al-Omari military and strategic base, which overlooks the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, while it was reported that Yemeni Houthis are on the verge of complete control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, with control over the city of "Al-Mukha", according to IRNA. Al Mayadeen’s Yemen bureau chief said there has been no official confirmation from the Houthis regarding reports that the city of Mocha and the strategically important Dhubab district have come under its control. Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council Chairman al-Alimi said any attempt to alter the military situation near Bab al-Mandeb cannot be tolerated, according to Al Hadath. He also stated that protecting the Yemeni coast is a Yemeni, Arab and international interest, while attempts to change the military situation near Bab al-Mandab will extend to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Houthi spokesperson said regarding freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab that these are safe and proceeding normally, and there is no need for any international concern. Furthermore, it was stated that "Once the aggression against Yemen ceases and the blockade is lifted, the current operations will cease". Yemen's Houthi humanitarian cooperation centre said navigation in the Red Sea is safe for all shipping except for Saudi vessels. UKMTO received a report of an incident 98NM southwest of Al Mukalla, Yemen in which a cargo vessel was approached by an unidentified skiff. US TRADE US stocks were lower as surging oil prices dictated price action across markets, which saw Treasury yields soar, the dollar strengthened, and weighed on spot gold. Highlighting the move in yields, the 30yr hit 5.366%, the highest since 2007, while the 10yr topped out at 4.954%, a peak since November 2023. Focus resided around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and saw the crude complex see gains of c. USD 7/bbl as Iranian media reported that the Houthis are nearing complete control of the strategic waterway, followed by reports of control over Zaqar and Mayun islands and the Al-Omari military base, as well as Al Mukha city. In terms of the data, US PPI was a mixed report and garnered limited reaction, as traders await the pivotal CPI metrics on Friday, which will likely dictate what the Federal Reserve do in the September confab. SPX -0.58% at 7,592, NDX -1.08% at 29,104, DJI -0.61% at 52,069, RUT -1.04% at 2,891. Click here for a detailed summary. TARIFFS/TRADE China's MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on an arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, according to Xinhua. China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US. South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, while the deal could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln, according to the WSJ. NOTABLE HEADLINES US Treasury confirmed today's buyback at a maximum of USD 6bln. US White House said it will issue USD 500 Obamacare refunds to almost 1mln Americans. DATA RECAP US PPI (Aug MM) rose 0.4% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.1%). US PPI (Aug YY) rose 5.4% (exp. 5.3%, prev. 4.8%). US Core PPI (Aug MM) rose 0.2% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%). US Core PPI (Aug YY) rose 4.6% (exp. 4.6%, prev. 4.3%). US Existing Home Sales (Aug) came in at 3.98M (exp. 3.98M, prev. 4.06M). US Wholesale Inventories (Jul MM) rose 1.3% (exp. 1.3%, prev. 0.2%). US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/05) came in at 206K (exp. 205K, prev. 207K). US Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug/29) came in at 1774K (exp. 1780K, prev. 1775K). FX USD was firmer as it tracked US yields and oil higher, with new YTD highs in all durations of notes/bonds providing strong support for the dollar as oil prices dominated price action across assets, while the Houthis' expansion in Yemen and the Red Sea leaves it posing a greater threat towards Saudi vessels in the key waterway. Elsewhere, a mixed PPI places greater significance on Friday's CPI report to dictate the Fed decision in September, while Initial and Continuing Claims were little changed W/W, signalling a continuation of the low fire/hire labour market. EUR traded lower on the rally in Brent and TTF futures. As mentioned, broad USD strength and a rise in global yields weighed on G10FX. Meanwhile, the ECB's decision to hike rates by 25bps was met with a limited reaction, given the decision was expected. The statement didn't provide any clear forward guidance, but on inflation, it stated that it will remain well above target for an extended period. In the presser, Lagarde stated that there was no debate of any kind on the future rate path, and that the decision to hike was unanimous. GBP retreated amid the dollar strength and briefly dipped beneath the 1.3500 handle, while updates from the UK remained very quiet, although participants look ahead to data with monthly GDP due on Friday. JPY weakened with USD/JPY rising above 154.00 alongside the rise in US yields and surge in oil prices. CBRT Interest Rate Decision held at 37% (exp. 37%, prev. 37%). CBRT said recent inflation data and indicators suggest the underlying trend is decelerating, while elevated energy and geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook. FIXED INCOME T-notes fell and yields climbed, particularly in the front end, as oil advanced on escalating Middle East tensions. COMMODITIES Oil prices surged with WTI breaching USD 103/bbl and Brent USD 108/bbl amid the escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep/04) fell by 0.391M (exp. -1.6M, prev. -4.450M). OPEC MOMR (Sep): Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.4mln BPD Y/Y (prev. 0.6mln BPD Y/Y) in 2026, and global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by about 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.2mln Y/Y BPD), while supply forecasts were modestly increased. US official said Iranian or suspected Iranian oil on water averaged 110mln barrels over the past week vs 180mln barrels before the war. US administration is yet to make a decision on refined copper tariffs amid concerns that higher prices could raise manufacturing costs, according to Reuters citing sources. GEOPOLITICAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said there will be no trilateral talks before elections in Russia. Kremlin said Russia will continue to destroy vessels transporting ammunition for Ukraine in the Black Sea, while Russia will discuss trade settlements in digital currencies with BRICS+ partners at a summit in Japan. ASIA-PAC NOTABLE HEADLINES PBoC's Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely. PBoC and MAS are reportedly to discuss financial cooperation. China's Financial Regulatory Administration said it will vigorously clamp down on "price wars" and similar practices, according to Xinhua. China reportedly halted new battery projects pending a capacity review, according to Caixin. Moonshot AI is exploring a dual-listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai in a move to boost capital and market exposure, according to SCMP citing sources. EU/UK NOTABLE HEADLINES ECB raised its rates by 25bps, as expected, with the Marginal Lending Rate at 2.90% (prev. 2.65%), Deposit Facility Rate at 2.50% (prev. 2.25%) and Main Refinancing Rate at 2.65% (prev. 2.40%). ECB reiterated it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path and said inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period. ECB also repeated that it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance, while the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. ECB President Lagarde said in the statement that the economy is proving resilient and consumer confidence has rebounded, while risks to the growth outlook are to the downside and risks to the inflation outlook are to the upside. ECB President Lagarde said during the Q&A that the decision was unanimous and a "no-brainer". Lagarde said she is not taking a view on the direction of policy at future meetings and cannot anticipate the next move given the elevated levels of uncertainty, as well as noted that growth following the cutoff date for the forecasts would be stronger than expected and more than the 0.9% projected, while inflation has been lower than expected but will be longer-lasting. Furthermore, she said new additional scenarios will be published "tomorrow, or in the next few days", covering "benign", "adverse" and "severe" scenarios, with differences primarily determined by energy prices, and that against all three scenarios, the 25bps hike in September was robust. ECB governors think further policy tightening is likely and may debate another hike as soon as October. However, it was stated that market expectations for three more hikes may be overly optimistic and December may be a more opportune time to raise borrowing costs, as that meeting will be accompanied by new predictions going into 2029.