[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude continues rising as geopolitical tensions show no signs of abating

Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, "If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan's "complete solidarity" with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period. WTI and Brent futures reside off session highs at the time of writing. WTI Sep’26 trades around the USD 89/bbl mark after hitting a high of USD 89.85/bbl this morning (vs low USD 87.32/bbl). Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 97.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.42/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase. Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,088-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range. Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.