[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures remain underpinned by geopolitics with metals subdued ahead of tomorrow's FOMC

WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remain firmer as the Middle East conflict continues to underpin the complex, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still offline following attacks, Riyadh seeking to boost shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran reiterating that the Strait remains closed and under its control. WTI trades towards the end of a USD 101.83-103.49/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.53-104.95/bbl range), while Brent resides close to the current intraday peak within a USD 106.25-107.86/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 104.80-109.80/bbl range). Dutch TTF are currently flat and off earlier highs, trading around EUR 82.50/MWh within a EUR 81.76-83.42/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 79.52-84.50/MWh range), with the increasing energy-supply risks continuing to underpin European gas ahead of winter. Precious metals are softer as the firmer USD and high oil prices reinforce expectations of a Fed hike tomorrow. Spot gold has slipped back below USD 4,300/oz and trades within a USD 4,283-4,317/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,253-4,355/oz range), with the 100 DMA at USD 4,328.90/oz). Base metals are subdued amid the firmer USD, softer risk tone and mixed Chinese activity data, with weak retail sales and investment offset somewhat by stronger industrial production. Copper is also pressured by fresh deliveries into LME warehouses signalling easing supply tightness. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 14k/t in a USD 13,985.85-14,083.68/t range