FOMC Summary of Economic Projections: Only 18 of 19 members submitted forecasts (expectations were for Warsh to not submit forecasts)

Federal Funds Rate  2026: 3.8% (exp. 3.625%, prev. 3.4%) 2027: 3.6% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.1%) 2028: 3.4% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%) Longer run: 3.1% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%) Change in Real GDP  2026: 2.2% (exp. 2.2%, prev. 2.4%) 2027: 2.3% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.3%) 2028: 2.2% (exp. 2.1%, prev. 2.1%) Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Unemployment Rate  2026: 4.3% (exp. 4.4%, prev. 4.4%) 2027: 4.3% (exp. 4.3%, prev. 4.3%) 2028: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) Longer run: 4.2% (exp. 4.2%, prev. 4.2%) PCE Inflation  2026: 3.6% (exp. 3.5%, prev. 2.7%) 2027: 2.3% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.2%) 2028: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Longer run: 2.0% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Core PCE Inflation  2026: 3.3% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 2.7%) 2027: 2.5% (exp. 2.3%, prev. 2.2%) 2028: 2.1% (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.0%) Distribution of dots for 2026: Three hikes, 4.375%: 1 (prev. 0) Two hikes, 4.125%, 5 (prev. 0) One Hike, 3.875%: 3 (prev. 0) Unchanged, 3.625%: 8 (prev. 7) One Cut, 3.375%: 1 (prev. 7) Two Cuts, 3.125%: 0 (prev. 2) Three cuts, 2.875%: 0 (prev. 2) Four cuts, 2.625%: 0 (prev. 1)