FX/Bonds

TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLE 2 TICKS HIGHER AT 109-20

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T-notes reversed some of Wednesday's post-FOMC losses on Thursday. At settlement, 2-year -0.5bps at 4.181%, 3-year -2.4bps at 4.191%, 5-year -3.3bps at 4.231%, 7-year -3.5bps at 4.338%, 10-year -3.0bps at 4.457%, 20-year -3.2bps at 4.918%, 30-year -2.4bps at 4.905%.THE DAY: Treasury yields moved lower across the curve on Thursday as markets pared some of the hawkish Fed repricing seen following Wednesday's FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's first press conference. T-notes gradually rallied overnight before seeing some profit-taking in the European morning. However, gains resumed once US participants arrived, with the rally largely tracking continued weakness in the crude complex.Oil prices came under further pressure after the US and Iran officially signed their agreement, while additional downside was seen on reports, later confirmed, that Kuwait had begun increasing oil production more quickly than previously expected. Kuwait said output had already risen above 2mln BPD and that all force majeure declarations had been lifted immediately, adding to expectations that global energy supplies could normalise faster than anticipated. That said, energy prices rallied ahead of and after settlement, partially supported by reports that Trump said the US would back Israel if it attacks Iran, Channel 14 reported.Economic data once again generated little market reaction. Initial jobless claims were broadly in line with expectations, although Pantheon Macroeconomics continues to expect claims to drift higher in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey beat expectations on the headline, although both prices paid and employment accelerated within the report.Elsewhere, reports suggested SpaceX is preparing a bond offering of at least USD 20bln. However, unlike the recent Nvidia transaction, the reports had little discernible impact on Treasury trading, with the direction of oil prices remaining the dominant driver of market sentiment.SUPPLYNotes US sold USD 24bln of 5-year TIPS; Stop through 0.5bps US to sell USD 69bln of 2-year notes on June 23rd, USD 70bln of 5-year notes on June 24th and USD 44bln of 7-year notes on June 25th; all to settle June 30th (as expected) US to sell USD 28bln 2year FRN on June 24th; to settle June 26th BillsUS sold 4-week bills at a high rate of 3.580%, B/C 2.99x; sold 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.540%, B/C 2.57xSTIRS/OPERATIONS Fed Pricing: 39bps (prev. Dec 26bps) EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 107bln (prev. USD 106bln) on June 17th SOFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 3.114tln (prev. USD 3.137tln) on June 17th NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.25bln (prev. 6.83bln) across 4 counterparties (prev. 16) on June 18th

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